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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Who knows what it'll even be when it reaches Jamaica and Cuba.   It's going to go through an ERC tomorrow most likely and I wouldn't think it will enter another one where it reintensifies before getting to either location.  I'm guessing it'll be 120-130 when it gets there which is still bad but it may come out of Cuba in bad shape 

I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to like 115......and if it doesn't complete the ERC prior to entering Cuba, then I think that it will be like watching paint dry to see it get going again.

Probably will never get quite right again......certainly will remain a dangerous system, though.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity....

this all presumes it decides to do a hockey stick north ... sorry, but that is not a given with this guy.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to like 115......and if it doesn't complete the ERC prior to entering Cuba, then I think that it will be like watching paint dry to see it get going again.

Probably will never get quite right again......certainly will remain a dangerous system, though.

I find that many times it's the 2nd major ERC after an RI that the system falls off a cliff, not the first.  It seems a modest drop occurs on the first followed by a leveling off or a minor intensification then the bottom falls out.   I'm sure some systems have tanked after the first but more seem to go on the next one 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity....

I agree, sorry if it sounded like I thought you were saying otherwise,  that chances are low that it regains Cat 5 after Jamaica and Cuba and it it does it will be for a short time, maybe over the Bahamas....if the inner core holds up over Cuba...

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing is a given...but I'd be surprised if it didn't turn north.

he'll turn north - but when and where is still an open question. he's not going into the gulf (i don't see it anyway) but south florida may have some issues

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I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity....

Even the smaller scale cyclone focused models like the hwrf struggle with intensity more often than not. I like to consider them a vague possibility and pay more attention to how they handle close environmental influences that might hint in regards to strengthening or weakening trends. Otherwise, there really is only the SHIPs and good synoptic reasoning to go by. Until something more accurate is programmed and the hardware exists to model at such extreme resolutions, criticizing differences in rapid intensity or its lack thereof in model guidance is kind of pointless.

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Just now, pcbjr said:

he'll turn north - but when and where is still an open question. he's not going into the gulf (i don't see it anyway) but south florida may have some issues

The entire SE coast is gonna have issues, the question is how bad will it get, big waves, rip currents, abnormal high tides etc.....if this thing hugs the coast 100 miles offshore the upside is it wont be able to strengthen much and will gradually weaken. 

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9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Even the smaller scale cyclone focused models like the hwrf struggle with intensity more often than not. I like to consider them a vague possibility and pay more attention to how they handle close environmental influences that might hint in regards to strengthening or weakening trends. Otherwise, there really is only the SHIPs and good synoptic reasoning to go by. Until something more accurate is programmed and the hardware exists to model at such extreme resolutions, criticizing differences in rapid intensity or its lack thereof in model guidance is kind of pointless.

The SHIPS did well with this one.

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The entire SE coast is gonna have issues, the question is how bad will it get, big waves, rip currents, abnormal high tides etc.....if this thing hugs the coast 100 miles offshore the upside is it wont be able to strengthen much and will gradually weaken. 

i'm with you 100% - but i'm again saying (though not identical by any means) - cleo 1964 looks like some sort of redux

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11 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

990... Intialized at 997. Sigh... Wonder what the GDFL and HWRF will show, hopefully they initialize better. 

It initialized much lower than that...at least as low as 961 mb according to the higher resolution surface chart on Tropical Tidbits. The 997 value you see is likely a result of post processing or generating the graphics from lower resolution data files. 

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