40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Who knows what it'll even be when it reaches Jamaica and Cuba. It's going to go through an ERC tomorrow most likely and I wouldn't think it will enter another one where it reintensifies before getting to either location. I'm guessing it'll be 120-130 when it gets there which is still bad but it may come out of Cuba in bad shape I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to like 115......and if it doesn't complete the ERC prior to entering Cuba, then I think that it will be like watching paint dry to see it get going again. Probably will never get quite right again......certainly will remain a dangerous system, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity.... this all presumes it decides to do a hockey stick north ... sorry, but that is not a given with this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to like 115......and if it doesn't complete the ERC prior to entering Cuba, then I think that it will be like watching paint dry to see it get going again. Probably will never get quite right again......certainly will remain a dangerous system, though. I find that many times it's the 2nd major ERC after an RI that the system falls off a cliff, not the first. It seems a modest drop occurs on the first followed by a leveling off or a minor intensification then the bottom falls out. I'm sure some systems have tanked after the first but more seem to go on the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, pcbjr said: this all presumes it decides to do a hockey stick north ... sorry, but that is not a given with this guy. Nothing is a given...but I'd be surprised if it didn't turn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity.... I agree, sorry if it sounded like I thought you were saying otherwise, that chances are low that it regains Cat 5 after Jamaica and Cuba and it it does it will be for a short time, maybe over the Bahamas....if the inner core holds up over Cuba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nothing is a given...but I'd be surprised if it didn't turn north. he'll turn north - but when and where is still an open question. he's not going into the gulf (i don't see it anyway) but south florida may have some issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity....Even the smaller scale cyclone focused models like the hwrf struggle with intensity more often than not. I like to consider them a vague possibility and pay more attention to how they handle close environmental influences that might hint in regards to strengthening or weakening trends. Otherwise, there really is only the SHIPs and good synoptic reasoning to go by. Until something more accurate is programmed and the hardware exists to model at such extreme resolutions, criticizing differences in rapid intensity or its lack thereof in model guidance is kind of pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, pcbjr said: he'll turn north - but when and where is still an open question. he's not going into the gulf (i don't see it anyway) but south florida may have some issues The entire SE coast is gonna have issues, the question is how bad will it get, big waves, rip currents, abnormal high tides etc.....if this thing hugs the coast 100 miles offshore the upside is it wont be able to strengthen much and will gradually weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Even the smaller scale cyclone focused models like the hwrf struggle with intensity more often than not. I like to consider them a vague possibility and pay more attention to how they handle close environmental influences that might hint in regards to strengthening or weakening trends. Otherwise, there really is only the SHIPs and good synoptic reasoning to go by. Until something more accurate is programmed and the hardware exists to model at such extreme resolutions, criticizing differences in rapid intensity or its lack thereof in model guidance is kind of pointless. The SHIPS did well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The entire SE coast is gonna have issues, the question is how bad will it get, big waves, rip currents, abnormal high tides etc.....if this thing hugs the coast 100 miles offshore the upside is it wont be able to strengthen much and will gradually weaken. i'm with you 100% - but i'm again saying (though not identical by any means) - cleo 1964 looks like some sort of redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Bearing down on Kingston from the S . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Strong Hurricanes like this don't really follow orders as fast. I think it might take longer for the north turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Bearing down on Kingston from the S . 990... Intialized at 997. Sigh... Wonder what the GDFL and HWRF will show, hopefully they initialize better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I think its peaked, looking at the latest image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 gfs -- looks to make landfall west of Guantanamo, around Santiago the Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yeah, It peaked as a Cat 5, 160 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 990... Intialized at 997. Sigh... Wonder what the GDFL and HWRF will show, hopefully they initialize better. It initialized much lower than that...at least as low as 961 mb according to the higher resolution surface chart on Tropical Tidbits. The 997 value you see is likely a result of post processing or generating the graphics from lower resolution data files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 almost scrapes FL on this run ( ft pierce area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 00Z GFS is 1. Slower, 2. Further west, and 3. Builds the NE ridge in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 23 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Yeah, It peaked as a Cat 5, 160 MPH. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 It's not going to get stronger than a cat 5 at 160 MPH. Pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 hr 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 0Z GFS has partial landfall in SC, starts riding the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Coach McGuirk said: It's not going to get stronger than a cat 5 at 160 MPH. Pretty simple. Ah, okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS down to 914 @ 144 . E of FLA . I mean " if " that happened - wow would be in order . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 peaked for the time being, it may very well attain similar strength later if some model solutions are to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS has partial landfall in SC, starts riding the coast Looks over the NC sounds or just off the OBX either way thats a bad run for the OBX for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: It's not going to get stronger than a cat 5 at 160 MPH. Pretty simple. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Still getting stronger while riding the coast near Maryland at 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The GFS has this taking I95 all the way up from E of FLA/ OBX/ then the NE . Takes this into NE . Ray , he is all yours man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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