Superstorm93 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Thanks Stebo. Noticeable poleward bias in the GFS/HWRF so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Thanks Stebo. Noticeable poleward bias in the GFS/HWRF so far I actually deleted my post as it was 00z data. I thought it was 12z data though I am hearing the same can be true with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF has a cat 2 cane striking the lesser Antilles in roughly 60 hours. That would be the first serious threat they have faced in awhile. Gets down to the low 940's south of Hispaniola, in a similar spot to where Sandy was picked up. I've always heard the HWRF doesn't do well with weak/disorganization systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 21 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: When you see the spread on the EPS, its really quite scary to see people saying that this will head OTS after entering the Caribbean. I agree. May just be me but at this stage we should be giving the EPS more weight anyway right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: I agree. May just be me but at this stage we should be giving the EPS more weight anyway right? I don't really think we can get an idea of what happens long-term until this develops a modest circulation and we start getting recon data ingested. The thing I take away from the EPS is that it has a pretty good consensus of a relatively strong ridge over the east, while the GFS seems to be kicking the trough out of the Plains much quicker. This is not going to be an easy storm to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Here is the 12z EPS plot: It looks lie those that develop sooner get pulled north otherwise they are going into the Gulf or the Yucatan. Those going north though, many still rake the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Very interesting runs tonight Gfs and ggem come very close to the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Very interesting runs tonight Gfs and ggem come very close to the east coast Yeah I would call this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 06Z GFS shows a 969 mb large Hurricane making landfall in or near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z GFS shows a 969 mb large Hurricane making landfall in or near NYC Gefs shows a dangerous solution. Alot if members near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs shows a dangerous solution. Alot if members near the coast. Yeah, this is really the solution we have to hope against as I don't think the East Coast is ready at all for another Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Yeah, this is really the solution we have to hope against as I don't think the East Coast is ready at all for another Sandy. Making landfall in NYC? That sounds more like Irene to me than Sandy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Making landfall in NYC? That sounds more like Irene to me than Sandy... Meant in terms of impacts. This thing is large like Sandy on the 06Z so alot of people would be effected, and the media would probably start using that stupid Superstorm name again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 When are the models suggesting a midAtlantic landfall should that verify? (Trying to plan Savannah to NYC area travel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 30 minutes ago, Tibet said: When are the models suggesting a midAtlantic landfall should that verify? (Trying to plan Savannah to NYC area travel) GFS/CMC suggest around day 8. The Euro has the system still over Cuba in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 EPS are relatively unchanged, if not West. Pretty confident that 97L is a depression now. New microwave pass is pretty decent. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: GFS/CMC suggest around day 8. The Euro has the system still over Cuba in 10 days. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 0z Ukmet is pretty similar to the Euro, just a tad west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 To me, it depends on whether 97L develops quickly or not. A deeper system would feel the effects of the departing mid/upper level cutoff low, which leaves behind a weak trough, stronger in the upper levels, hence the more intense system sensing the mid/upper level steering currents. A weaker system would also travel a bit further south, closer to SA, like the UKie and the Euro are modeling, with the departing trough leaving weaker mid/lower level steering currents, hence the slower motion in the european models. That would leave a window for a building ridge on the trough's trail that could lead future 97L in a track towards the GoM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: It seems like there are a few recurves in there just like sandy was the "left turn" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Recon is beginning to sample 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12 Z runs thus far GFS: Near miss on US east coast, ends up landfilling in Canada GEM: Pretty much rides up the whole eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 12 Z runs thus far GFS: Near miss on US east coast, ends up landfilling in Canada GEM: Pretty much rides up the whole eastern seaboard. GEFS is a disaster for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Euro going more SW than the GFS so far at 144. S of Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Euro going more SW than the GFS so far at 144. S of Jamaica. So far 12z Euro is pretty inline with its 0z run.. through 144 hours. Perhaps a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Landfall in Jamaica day 7, then headed NNW towards Eastern Cuba. Think Sandy esque track in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Landfall in Jamaica day 7, then headed NNW towards Eastern Cuba. Think Sandy esque track in that region. Looks like it's following the GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Wow at the troughhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092712/ecmwf_z500a_atl_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Well, Euro day 10, 938mb sitting just off the SE FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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