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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I'd be careful with that 140kt sfc wind tag, it's SFMR was in 2"/hr in rain, rain rates like that tend to overdo the actual near sfc wind speed.

Think that applies more so in much weaker systems. 

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5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I'd be careful with that 140kt sfc wind tag, it's SFMR was in 2"/hr in rain, rain rates like that tend to overdo the actual near sfc wind speed.

I wanted to figure the rain would make it iffy enough to maybe they wouldn't pull the trigger.. but there were multiple readings... I think the first one with the 133kt had higher pressure than previous reading.. but then 138kt did show up.. and lower pressure over-all.  Idk, these recon things still confuse me to an extent.  I would think they would give it Cat 5, but maybe wait until over-night/morning if it maintains or gets a bit stronger?

3 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Your girlfriend and my wife have patience it seems ... when it comes to weather :~)

Tell me about it.  I lucked out with her... when I met her I told her straight up "i know we live in the South, but during Winter I will be glued to my pc screen looking for snow".  Little did she or even I know, I would try to branch out and learn about severe and tropical weather. 

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18 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Think that applies more so in much weaker systems. 

Doesn't matter, attenuation is attenuation, the more water it's hitting on the way to the sfc, the less power you are going to receive back, increasing the velocity uncertainty.

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The vortex message I posted had the 138kt wind. Isn't all of that information confirmed to be good data before transmitting the VM?

They never dropped a sonde on the inbound, the SFMR is their best guess. They don't have time to QC en-route.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  72.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

GUSTS TO 195 ... EEEK 

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S FL is now in the cone of uncertainty.

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain
a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the
reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum
winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur
soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given
that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some
weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a
category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of
Cuba.  It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid
strengthening of Matthew.

Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt
steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.
In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of
the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and
then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very
consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate
much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast
period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track
models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing
the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.3N  72.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

I don't like the word "Hugo" here in South Carolina. 

Nor me this:

 

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

we were overdue for a major cane much more a cat 5. ULL should push East and make room for landfall. Either we get a Sandy or Hugo. 

Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this!

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this!

 

 

The EURO sees this , so maybe it can re fire ? 

57ef03af8849b_rtofs_sst_swatl_36HOURSSTSE.png.0994cc83fdfd61fd60a30cf034230b8f.png

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One day folks will stop taking intensity prigs on globals verbatim.

I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast....

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The eye has cleared out completely now and is circular in shape.  Perfection, the ADT numbers are going to sky rocket to 8.0 once they see the eye.

Haiyan and Patricia were 8.0s. While this is an impressive storm, those two are still certainly in another league.

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Just now, downeastnc said:

I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast....

Who knows what it'll even be when it reaches Jamaica and Cuba.   It's going to go through an ERC tomorrow most likely and I wouldn't think it will enter another one where it reintensifies before getting to either location.  I'm guessing it'll be 120-130 when it gets there which is still bad but it may come out of Cuba in bad shape 

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast....

I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity....

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