wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I'd be careful with that 140kt sfc wind tag, it's SFMR was in 2"/hr in rain, rain rates like that tend to overdo the actual near sfc wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: I'd be careful with that 140kt sfc wind tag, it's SFMR was in 2"/hr in rain, rain rates like that tend to overdo the actual near sfc wind speed. Think that applies more so in much weaker systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: I'd be careful with that 140kt sfc wind tag, it's SFMR was in 2"/hr in rain, rain rates like that tend to overdo the actual near sfc wind speed. I wanted to figure the rain would make it iffy enough to maybe they wouldn't pull the trigger.. but there were multiple readings... I think the first one with the 133kt had higher pressure than previous reading.. but then 138kt did show up.. and lower pressure over-all. Idk, these recon things still confuse me to an extent. I would think they would give it Cat 5, but maybe wait until over-night/morning if it maintains or gets a bit stronger? 3 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Your girlfriend and my wife have patience it seems ... when it comes to weather :~) Tell me about it. I lucked out with her... when I met her I told her straight up "i know we live in the South, but during Winter I will be glued to my pc screen looking for snow". Little did she or even I know, I would try to branch out and learn about severe and tropical weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Scary thing is that if the EURO is correct, this has a second chance of becoming a C5 Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Guys on the latest satellite image the eye looks like it is shrinking which is a sign of even more intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 18 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Think that applies more so in much weaker systems. Doesn't matter, attenuation is attenuation, the more water it's hitting on the way to the sfc, the less power you are going to receive back, increasing the velocity uncertainty. 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The vortex message I posted had the 138kt wind. Isn't all of that information confirmed to be good data before transmitting the VM? They never dropped a sonde on the inbound, the SFMR is their best guess. They don't have time to QC en-route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 CAT 5 - 160 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 It's official. The streak is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Quote ...MATTHEW BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC SINCE FELIX IN 2007... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Cat 5 160mph/941mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Officially cat 5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 72.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. GUSTS TO 195 ... EEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Discussion said HH's found secondary wind maxima. ERC soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Those gusts are 5mph short of an EF5 tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 S FL is now in the cone of uncertainty. HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations. Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since 2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007. Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid strengthening of Matthew. Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic. In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 we were overdue for a major cane much more a cat 5. ULL should push East and make room for landfall. Either we get a Sandy or Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: we were overdue for a major cane much more a cat 5. ULL should push East and make room for landfall. Either we get a Sandy or Hugo. I don't like the word "Hugo" here in South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: I don't like the word "Hugo" here in South Carolina. Nor me this: It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: we were overdue for a major cane much more a cat 5. ULL should push East and make room for landfall. Either we get a Sandy or Hugo. Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this! I believe models have it weakening as it goes over land then intensifying over the Atlantic prior to landfall in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this! Not so sure about that... (See Euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: Are you so sure you want to make such a bold prediction for the US? Cat 5 status won't last too long. Probably no 150mph winds north of Cuba on this! The EURO sees this , so maybe it can re fire ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Not so sure about that... (See Euro) The same Euro that had it no lower than 975MB for right now 12 hrs ago....that Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The same Euro that had it no lower than 975MB for right now 12 hrs ago....that Euro? One day folks will stop taking intensity progs on globals verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: One day folks will stop taking intensity prigs on globals verbatim. I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The eye has cleared out completely now and is circular in shape. Perfection, the ADT numbers are going to sky rocket to 8.0 once they see the eye. Haiyan and Patricia were 8.0s. While this is an impressive storm, those two are still certainly in another league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast.... Who knows what it'll even be when it reaches Jamaica and Cuba. It's going to go through an ERC tomorrow most likely and I wouldn't think it will enter another one where it reintensifies before getting to either location. I'm guessing it'll be 120-130 when it gets there which is still bad but it may come out of Cuba in bad shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I know models suck at it and the pressures they show are pretty much useless.....storms can ramp up and ramp down very quickly....there is no guarantee this thing ever regains its former strength after it hits Jamaica and the most mountainous part of Cuba...there is no way to make a accurate forecast for its strength once it gets up into the Bahamas and off the SE Coast.... I'm not saying that it will regain cat 5 intensity...in fact, I'd bet against it.......but I only use globals for track and general trends RE intensity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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