Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: decent shift West Well if the Euro is right we can laugh at all those tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Up to 135 knots per ATCF AL, 14, 2016100100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 720W, 135, 943, HU According to recon though its higher then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 look at Cleo .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 and I woke up this morning, thinking we finally had a classic hurricane again...like the ole days (1 eye and cylindrical perfect ) ....or maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Recon going in for another eye pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The fact that we have a high-end cat 4/possible category 5 hurricane, but hurricane force winds only extend 37 miles from the center is astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Recent IR loop showing almost a due SW motion. Could be a wobble but it looks like the mean motion is SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Recon going in for another eye pass. It's looked the best it's ever looked on AVN with a nice CDG almost wrapped completely around the eye. I'll be floored if they don't find a cat5 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Perfectly round eye. Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The eye has cleared out completely now and is circular in shape. Perfection, the ADT numbers are going to sky rocket to 8.0 once they see the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Recent IR loop showing almost a due SW motion. Could be a wobble but it looks like the mean motion is SW. It's 3 miles south of the forecast track still a wobble until it goes a lot further south. If you use the SSD site you can check a box and it displays the the forecast points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 That blow up to the east of the eye is bizarre, oriented east-west. But an absolutely beautiful eye wall and eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Convection east of Matthew associated with the outflow channel, banding feature, is trying to wrap around the outer circulation of the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Interesting discussion tweets on why the gulf IV dropsonde environmental data samplings may have been incorrectly analyzed for southwesterly zonal shear today. Perhaps the southwest flow was up against the midlevel vortex, but it wasn't nearly as strong as calculated. Instead the dropsonde sampled result of a boundary collision under the outflow level and downward forcing against what may have been much weaker southwesterly flow. The actual SW flow could have even been less that 10 kts.https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781885690283905026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Anything on the latest HH observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 2nd eyewall pass... recon found surface winds up to 138 knots. Definitely a cat 5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Recon found 940.2 on this pass. It just keeps going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Nice I just found the surface pressure readings 940mb, and 138 knot surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The awe of a Hurricane. Goes from 138kts to 5kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 For clarification, if/when Matthew goes Cat 5, it will be the first Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Does anyone think that blob to the right of it will get captured in the CDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: For clarification, if/when Matthew goes Cat 5, it will be the first Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin since Felix in 2007. Correct? Looks like CAT 5 now 940 / 158.8 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 They round up with sustained winds, 160-165mph likely at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, PB GFI said: Looks like CAT 5 now 940 / 158.8 MPH Reinforced by the 165mph reading earlier too. Best guess is they put it at 160 at the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I'm going with 160 mph, 942 mb pressure at 11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 155 940 at 11. It's nice and all but it doesn't hold a candle to some of the recent cat 5 super typhoons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 155 940 at 11. It's nice and all but it doesn't hold a candle to some of the recent cat 5 super typhoons Atlantic storms rarely, if ever, will. The scope of the Pacific basin allows far greater size and intensity. The other key issue is movement of Matthew. This SW jog, should it continue, will have big ramifications later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Atlantic storms rarely, if ever, will. The scope of the Pacific basin allows far greater size and intensity. The other key issue is movement of Matthew. This SW jog, should it continue, will have big ramifications later on. Isn't the ambient pressure in the west pacific several mb lower than the Atlantic as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 155 940 at 11. It's nice and all but it doesn't hold a candle to some of the recent cat 5 super typhoons It's traversing the southern Caribbean sea, not 20 million square km of ocean with a 200 meters deep 26° isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm going with 160 mph, 942 mb pressure at 11 pm. You took the words right out of my mouth. Was just telling the girlfriend that I see a 160, maybe 165 if they are feeling froggy storm with 942.. cause they like those even numbers for pressure.. 941 or 943 possible.. but 942 makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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