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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Recent IR loop showing almost a due SW motion. Could be a wobble but it looks like the mean motion is SW.

It's 3 miles south of the forecast track still a wobble until it goes a lot further south.  If you use the SSD site you can check a box and it displays the the forecast points.

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Interesting discussion tweets on why the gulf IV dropsonde environmental data samplings may have been incorrectly analyzed for southwesterly zonal shear today. Perhaps the southwest flow was up against the midlevel vortex, but it wasn't nearly as strong as calculated. Instead the dropsonde sampled result of a boundary collision under the outflow level and downward forcing against what may have been much weaker southwesterly flow. The actual SW flow could have even been less that 10 kts.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781885690283905026

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

155 940 at 11. It's nice and all but it doesn't hold a candle to some of the recent cat 5 super typhoons 

Atlantic storms rarely, if ever, will.  The scope of the Pacific basin allows far greater size and intensity.

 

The other key issue is movement of Matthew.  This SW jog, should it continue, will have big ramifications later on. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Atlantic storms rarely, if ever, will.  The scope of the Pacific basin allows far greater size and intensity.

 

The other key issue is movement of Matthew.  This SW jog, should it continue, will have big ramifications later on. 

Isn't the ambient pressure in the west pacific several mb lower than the Atlantic as well?

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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going with 160 mph, 942 mb pressure at 11 pm.

You took the words right out of my mouth.  Was just telling the girlfriend that I see a 160, maybe 165 if they are feeling froggy storm with 942.. cause they like those even numbers for pressure.. 941 or 943 possible.. but 942 makes sense.  

 

 

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