Roger Smith Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 It's giving Colombia a buzz-cut. You have to wonder what the 00z model suites will do with this as it must be reflecting at 500 mb with at least a 573 dm closed low that close to the equator. I still don't consider the eastern third of the GOM to be out of the picture. Also, remember where Sandy was headed on the GFS at day 8? Pretty sure it was about like the current 18z GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: It's giving Colombia a buzz-cut. You have to wonder what the 00z model suites will do with this as it must be reflecting at 500 mb with at least a 573 dm closed low that close to the equator. I still don't consider the eastern third of the GOM to be out of the picture. Also, remember where Sandy was headed on the GFS at day 8? Pretty sure it was about like the current 18z GFS track. Unfortunately, nor do I :~( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 maybe they should investigate whatevers going on , with that separate eastern blobThat is a very intense band with a feed off of Venezuela. There is a crazy amount of lightning data on the radar image for that location. The upper divergence aloft, uplift, diurnal forcing with some dry mixing off the landmass may be making for some intense thunderstorm cells there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That is a very intense band with a feed off of Venezuela. There is a crazy amount of lightning data on the radar image for that location. The upper divergence aloft, uplift, diurnal forcing with some dry mixing off the landmass may be making for some intense thunderstorm cells there. Matt Jr. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Depending on what they find next pass could be 150 or even 155 mph by 8 pm assuming they find it to be more intense. Edit: turns out I was right. Quote 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302342 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 800 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MATTHEW WITH 150 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Matthew is moving south of due west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be near Jamaica late on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) primarily to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Quote LOCATION...13.5N 72.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.90 INCHES Up to 150mph now per 8pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I wonder if US military personnel will have to make lots of changes at Guantanamo Bay to get ready for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: I wonder if US military personnel will have to make lots of changes at Guantanamo Bay to get ready for this. I'd assume they could hunker down in that place? It's built pretty strong from articles I have read in the past. Could survive a cat4/5? If not, then we enter a political debate pertaining to the staff and the prisoners. Good question though.. now I need to go research the construction! Edit. I didn't even think of flooding though.. uh oh. Edit #2, just came across this article about that place and hurricanes/what they do.. - http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2008/09/ike_goes_to_gitmo.html Sample article quote: Quote ." The military maintains that the facilities currently housing the prisoners are capable of withstanding anything up to a Category 2 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 OMG this is getting Crazy 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 Recon just found 143 knot surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: OMG this is getting Crazy 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 Recon just found 143 knot surface winds. Just now, WeatherFan202 said: OMG this is getting Crazy 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 Recon just found 143 knot surface winds. According to the Saffir Simpson Scale, it's a Cat 5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 143 kt would make it a Category 5 hurricane according to the Simpson scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 First cat 5 in 9 years! And in almost the exact same area as the last cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: OMG this is getting Crazy 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 Recon just found 143 knot surface winds. That'd be about 165mph. We'll into cat 5 status..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Awaiting the NHC Special Update any second now. If this thing holds together like this to Jamaica, then it's gonna be almost the whole country devastated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Here are the reading and I doubt all of them get flagged. 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 001030 1329N 07204W 6960 02822 9699 +119 //// 049131 138 142 047 05 The bolded on the left are FL winds and on the right are Surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: First cat 5 in 9 years! And in almost the exact same area as the last cat 5. This could be the fastest a tropical system has gone from a Cat 1 to Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: This could be the fastest a tropical system has gone from a Cat 1 to Cat 5. Nope, Wilma did it in like 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Nope, Wilma did it in like 12 hours. Interesting, the one I just noted with the double eye. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph (295 km/h). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Felix was the fastest TD to CAT5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Interesting from Dr. Masters blog. Jamaica never (1851 to 2015) been hit by a major coming from the South. Specific concern for Kingston. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3453 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 NHC went conservative. I swear if this ends up being another victim of the 135kt curse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 For those that do not have these sites, they are amazing for this tropical stuff http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ (great for imagery, other info in one place click "Matthew") http://tropicalatlantic.com/ (faster and better looking Recon raw data, good information too otherwise) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ (pretty recon maps, easy data to read and a good model tracking section) http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ (my first go to to get an overall view of what's happening with invests, storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_14L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 If the NHC decides to upgrade this will be the first cat 5 since Felix 2007. Super impressive. Really glad we have almost constant recon to check out this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 decent shift West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I can't believe that we're on the cusp of having our first Cat 5 in nine years in nearly the exact same spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: decent shift West Seems the entire coast might be back in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I don't think you'll see the strengthening stop until a 2nd eyewall shows up on that microwave imagery linked above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 This will probably be the focus of many a doctoral thesis in the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Up to 135 knots per ATCF AL, 14, 2016100100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 720W, 135, 943, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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