Random Chaos Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: When you have a 'cane of this intensity I'm wondering if Matthew is altering the environment around himself and pushing shear out of the intermediate area. That's quite common with storms of the current category 4 strength, but at the start of the rapid intensification (just 24 hours ago) time period it was only a minimal 75mph category 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 *insert expletive here* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 We don't even need sub 900 to get a CAT five. Felix did it with a mid 930s pressure in the same spot with a similar structure.The hurricane has a very tight pressure gradient and higher mean background pressures than typical winds sampled for its central pressure. That actually has been the case since it closed off from an invest, hence why it went straight to a strong tropical storm on classification. The vortex has now been forced south of west against the ridge. Typically the easterly trade winds through the passage are higher. 930s likely would result in Cat 5 winds in the northern eyewall if Matt gets down that far tonight. Felix is a good example. Also, does anyone remember Dean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 We probably got a Cat 5 on our hands now. *insert expletive here*From a while ago and just above the boundary layer. Needs to mix down. Could tonight, but I doubt it. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The hurricane has a very tight pressure gradient and higher mean background pressures than typical winds sampled for its central pressure. That actually has been the case since it closed off from an invest, hence why it went straight to a strong tropical storm on classification. The vortex has now been forced south of west against the ridge. Typically the easterly trade winds through the passage are higher. 930s likely would result in Cat 5 winds in the northern eyewall if Matt gets down that far tonight. Felix is a good example. Also, does anyone remember Dean? 930s won't take llong at this rate. Latest IR pic shows the RI is not letting up so there's a good chance the next Recon finds a pressure in the 930s on the first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 ...slightly perplexed with the flareup of consistent convection on it's east end...how it doesn't seem to want to die down, or converge with matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 FWIW 18Z GFS has it closer to the E coast of Florida than at 12Z through 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I mentioned earlier that the system still looked restricted on the western periphery and lacked good banding. That is changing fast. Look at how the CDO is expanding west and that intense band now wrapped around on that side? This this has amazing structure compared to even a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, klw said: FWIW 18Z GFS has it closer to the E coast of Florida than at 12Z through 138 hugging coast at 144 and 150 starts turning NE at 162 to continue to parallel the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 907 just off the coast of florida at 150hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Way too close to SC landfall. Looks like it's scraping up the coasts of SC/NC. Guess we can say, West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 192hr 500mb map looks like the 1979 PD snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I am no met, but this soooo reminds me of Cleo in 1964 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Landfall on Cape Cod then Portland Maine. Edit: Maybe more like Bangor, not that it matters cause it's 222hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Raw T #7.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Amped said: 192hr 500mb map looks like the 1979 PD snowstorm. Was thinking similar.....definite capture happening. GFS and others have been hinting at this. Cape Cod crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Somehow manages to hit everyone but the Mid Atlantic...figures. /rant Back to Matthew...this is amazing. One of the most scientifically fascinating things I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Back to Matthew...this is amazing. One of the most scientifically fascinating things I've ever seen. Indeed. wanna know what's more fascinating ? Lake effect snow in upstate NY could follow. 540 line @ 850...way below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Would have pretty big wind and rain in NYC li etc to...would there be surge to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Sandy also had big snows in Western MD. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 When do we start getting fresh recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, Hoth said: When do we start getting fresh recon data? Airforce should be in the storm right now. So soon. Edit: yes, they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Holy crap. 133 knot surface winds with a 941 mb pressure on the first pass. Rain contaminated, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 maybe they should investigate whatevers going on , with that separate eastern blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 HOLY GUACAMOLE Recon just found 133 knots surface winds. 225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01 225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05 Also Pressure down to 941.1 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: HOLY GUACAMOLE Recon just found 133 knots surface winds. 225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01 225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05 Flagged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, irishbri74 said: Flagged? Not the 132 knot one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, irishbri74 said: Flagged? Might be since it happened in a period of very high rain rate. Don't know but the pressure is down to 941.1 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: maybe they should investigate whatevers going on , with that separate eastern blob And what's that even further east/behind them not far off of Africa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 another Wilma in the making ? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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