Joe4alb Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Take a look at the new one. Mathew be a strong 'cane!! EWRC, I think, won't take place for quite a bit...(12 hrs. or so)....Bacon may well lead us in his thoughts on sub-900 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Noob question but what is MPI. Max. Potential Intensity -- which is around 910. 920-930 should be the practical limit in the waters where it sits now. Lower if it makes it further west faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Officially a cat 4 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think we'd want rock solid evidence (vortex, multiple unflagged SFMR) and not just a dropsonde or two. We'll see what they do. It's the tropical Atlantic recon site. Sorry, on and off mobile. 140 it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 NHC basically says, lol we don't know anymore Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around 120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since this time yesterday. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible this could be conservative. Since Matthew has now become a major hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to some fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After 12 hours, a gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly all of the intensity guidance. Land interaction with Cuba should lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, Morris said: You didn't see the dropsonde and the one cat 4 SFMR reading? Cat 4 is 130mph, and I didn't see the sonde yet. Does anyone have a link to the Google Earth plugin that shows the recon/sonde data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, JasonOH said: Cat 4 is 130mph, and I didn't see the sonde yet. Does anyone have a link to the Google Earth plugin that shows the recon/sonde data. I've posted it four times. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&product=sonde&identifier=Matthew&aircraft=3&month=09&day=30&mission=WA&agency=NOAA&ob=09-30-1945-17-960-157-121 Here's the VDM. 000 URNT12 KWBC 302054 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016 A. 30/20:36:13Z B. 13 deg 32 min N 071 deg 32 min W C. NA D. 117 kt E. 042 deg 9 nm F. 130 deg 117 kt G. 046 deg 11 nm H. EXTRAP 948 mb I. 16 C / 2150 m J. 21 C / 2477 m K. 16 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C12 N. 12345 / NA O. .01 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 WA14A MATTHEW OB 19 SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT RADAR ALTITUDE MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT 045 / 11 NM 20:45:32Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The dropsonde at 121 with the continuing deepening of the pressure during a mission....I'll stick with my bet.... Good call! I missed the sonde which did it. I'm in and out while doing some calculus so I'm skimming posts. Guess I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: LEK is always right. You should see him during lake effect season. He's the best. I don't know about that track though, very few guidance packages have it hitting southeast Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 140 it is.... Well played, sir. Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Michael Lowery on TWC said that the past 24 hrs of strengthening exceeds the the RI scale by almost double. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looking at the current storm compared to the model runs from noon and it's way stronger now then any of the models had predicted that it would be at right now. Really can't wait to see what the models look like tonight with the new data coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 At least this thing hasn't had WILMA levels of RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: IMO, this will end up either making LF in Florida, or further west....despite the model consensus ATT... Bold! Given your sterling reputation around here though, I place a great deal of weight on your forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 After successfully predicting the storm a bit ago in another blog, I will predict once again, Matthew will be a category five hurricane by 5am tomorrow morning if not sooner. With the hurricane hunters now constantly going inside Hurricane Matthew, I don't see why they won't accurately depict a monster hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Never thought I'd say this but the HWRF was too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Michael Lowery on TWC said that the past 24 hrs of strengthening exceeds the the RI scale by almost double. I wonder what he defines as "almost double"? The current 948 mb subtracted from 993 mb is 45. NHC mentioned 44 mb in their discussion. 42 mb is the official threshold for a 24 hour period.*scratches head* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 HH going home for a much deserved break. Break time for me as well. Probably more interesting developments once those dropsondes are ingested into the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 if this goes west of kingston Jamica it would be just awful right the bay will funnel the surge with a south wind..and of course the wind...elevation rises quickly from the sea coast though most of the time hurricanes(i.e. Gibert) moving in from the east and Kingston would be the weaker side of the storm and offshore flow from the front part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So, thoughts on the steering layers as it becomes strong Category 4/Category 5? Models are likely not taking this into account, which could substantially change the projected track of the storm. 940-949mb steering layer (current): <940mb steering layer (potentially later tonight or by morning): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: HH going home for a much deserved break. Break time for me as well. Probably more interesting developments once those dropsondes are ingested into the 00z suite Air Force is heading in soon. Just took off it appears. Looks like I can focus on calc for an hour while they head in instead of being distracted. I'm usually a severe weather guy, so I don't have as much experience with the tropics. That explains my stupidity at times on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I wonder what he defines as "almost double"? The current 948 mb subtracted from 993 mb is 45. NHC mentioned 44 mb in their discussion. 42 mb is the official threshold for a 24 hour period. *scratches head* There is also a wind definition as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 38 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: ....Bacon may well lead us in his thoughts on sub-900 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Can pretty much toss the 18z model runs. Nothing has the storm as powerful as it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 There is also a wind definition as well.That's obvious now, isn't it? lol.. I feel absent minded. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 30kt in 24 hrs is the wind definition of rapid intensification. I was rather surprised that rapid intensification occurred given the 20kt sheer environment that storm was in for at least part of that rapid intensification period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: We don't even need sub 900 to get a CAT five. Felix did it with a mid 930s pressure in the same spot with a similar structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: 30kt in 24 hrs is the wind definition of rapid intensification. I was rather surprised that rapid intensification occurred given the 20kt sheer environment that storm was in for at least part of that rapid intensification period. When you have a 'cane of this intensity I'm wondering if Matthew is altering the environment around himself and pushing shear out of the intermediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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