Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Where did you see that. What I am looking at still says 107.2 knots. Raw ADT since final still has constraints on it. 1.3/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: 947.8 mb. HOLY GUACAMOLE Confirmed. 201500 1333N 07127W 7528 02052 9478 +219 +142 122002 009 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 It just keeps going. 947.8mb on this last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Quick reminder that the zoomed in map on Tropical Tidbits is flight level, not surface winds. Should have another pass within 20mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: Quick reminder that the zoomed in map on Tropical Tidbits is flight level, not surface winds. Should have another pass within 20mins. Really? Ok, didnt know that. Thought that was surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 New tower in the N quad. Gonna be a really interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I bet NHC will jump this to 140 mph at the 5pm.... Mid range Cat 4.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: I bet NHC will jump this to 140 mph at the 5pm.... Mid range Cat 4.... I disagree. So far there has been no surface wind over 115kt. I see no reason for 140mph. I'm thinking 130mph will be the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Starting to look a lot like Felix. The Caribbean is reminding the rest of the MDR who's boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: These dropsonde drops in the northern eyewall are lol Can you give a link to the dropsonde reports please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: I disagree. So far there has been no surface wind over 115kt. I see no reason for 140mph. I'm thinking 130mph will be the next update. Did you not see the 121 knot dropsonde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, JasonOH said: I disagree. So far there has been no surface wind over 115kt. I see no reason for 140mph. I'm thinking 130mph will be the next update. You didn't see the dropsonde and the one cat 4 SFMR reading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Going to have to worry about an Eyewall Replacement Cycle soon. That process would likely bring a halt to this RI episode. Just a matter of time and how high (and low) it can go first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Betting against LEK on hurricanes? Bold strategy, Cotton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Brand new sonde would also support 125 knots. Old: New: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Notice the part where the NHC says that In I quote "little change in strength is expected for the next 48 hours". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, JasonOH said: I disagree. So far there has been no surface wind over 115kt. I see no reason for 140mph. I'm thinking 130mph will be the next update. Yes there was a 121 Dropsonde. It's intensifyingbfast so might as well stay ahead of the game even if there wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 From the 2pm "Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, JasonOH said: I disagree. So far there has been no surface wind over 115kt. I see no reason for 140mph. I'm thinking 130mph will be the next update. The dropsonde at 121 with the continuing deepening of the pressure during a mission....I'll stick with my bet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: The dropsonde at 121 with the continuing deepening of the pressure during a mission....I'll stick with my bet.... Take a look at the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 The sonde has 176 mph winds just above the PBL Theoretically, those could mix down tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 RI usually stops when the conditions supporting it stop (via a change in environmental conditions or the start of an ERC) or the cyclone gets somewhat close to its MPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Noob question but what is MPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 My real quick thoughts on track.....(in red)....more later...leaving work now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Noob question but what is MPI. Maximum potential intensity Usually around 150-160 in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Noob question but what is MPI. Maximum potential intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Noob question but what is MPI. Max Potential Intensity. Or something very close to that IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Going to have to worry about an Eyewall Replacement Cycle soon. That process would likely bring a halt to this RI episode. Just a matter of time and how high (and low) it can go first.There is no evidence of this in the short term based on radar or recon data. In fact, the western periphery is still restricted and weak in outer banding, so I don't expect an outer eyewall and wind maxima to begin developing until the system can expand westward some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 116kts SFMR reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 LEK is always right. Quote 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30Location: 13.5°N 71.6°WMoving: WSW at 9 mphMin pressure: 949 mbMax sustained: 140 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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