OceanStWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 It will be interesting to see what happens at the tide gauge at Charleston and on NE over the next few hours. You already have the storm surge, but the tide is coming back up, plus you have all the rainfall runoff heading down the rivers with nowhere to go. We've had similar events cause flash flooding in Portland because the high tide prevents water from draining out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Also, looks like ILM just had a tornado up in Pender County. A brief TDS showed up around Currie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 NWS ILM brings up a interesting scenario that may occur, it actually also happened when the rems of Hermine passed through NC and produced widespread winds 45-50 mph, given the size of the 850-900mb wind field and rain shield this could impact a large area.... National Weather Service Wilmington NC 704 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Saturday... Tropical storm force winds will continue to spread northward along the coast this morning, but I fear there is a surprise waiting for us late this afternoon into this evening. For several days the GFS model has been indicating as the center of Matthew passes south of Cape Fear, rain-cooled air across interior North Carolina would get pulled south behind the storm. As lapse rates steepen in the lowest 1500-2000 feet of the atmosphere, winds of 60-80 mph may get transported down through this mixed layer to the surface. For many locations north of Myrtle Beach this may be the strongest winds we see from the entire event, and could pose quite a shock as the system will seem to be on its way out to sea by then. After a foot of rain, gusts this strong would almost certainly uproot trees causing power outages and blocked roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Rain from Matthew extends all the way up to D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This link has hundreds of Matthew damage pictures from Florida to North Carolina: https://storify.com/bryanwx/hurricane-matthew-damage-in-the-u-s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Just curious, whats the costliest tropical cyclone in the U.S. that never actually made landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Katrina by a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Katrina by a mile ya ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Katrina by a mile might want to re-read the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: Just curious, whats the costliest tropical cyclone in the U.S. that never actually made landfall? No clue but I don't think it will be this one. I'm pretty sure it's making landfall right now. Also that was an impeccably timed recon flight to catch the center just a couple miles off the coast (I know it just worked out that way, but still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This has officially made landfall on the SC coast as a Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The guys in a lounge chair on the Frying Pan Shoals cam http://explore.org/live-cams/player/frying-pan-cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Matthew has just made landfall, officially... Appears to be a devastating blow for Charleston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Buoy 41029 had 968.1mb at 10:08 eastern. It looks like the center of circulation was onshore by a little bit at that point http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41029 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: Buoy 41029 had 968.1mb at 10:08 eastern. It looks like the center of circulation was onshore by a little bit at that point http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41029 HWRF shows the sharp right coming in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Myrtle Beach may be getting over 2" of rain per hour recently. This indicates 1.34" in an hour KMYR 081655Z 11032G43KT 2SM BKN010 OVC016 24/19 A2906 RMK AO1 P0134 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 4-6"/hr Rainfall rates!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Biggest storm surges on the SLOSH graphics at NHC look to be near the NC/SC border. This timing is coinciding with high tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 That band is hugging the coast 5 miles inland headed for Wilmington. Bad news, those are Ellicott city rain rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Holy convergence. Really impressive radar image showing the band of just tremendous rainfall rates residing just in shore. Used a higher tilt since this band is practically on top of the radar.A cross section shows just how tilted rain shaft is due to the winds. ZDR is off the charts, which would indicate very large and likely elongated raindrops due to the strong winds aloft. This has been a recurring theme with the eyewall of this system with the ZDR max and corresponding low and distorted CC values almost as if it had a hail core. It's not birds as i've seen reported even from weather.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 3 deaths in North Carolina due to flooding. Two in Bladen County, one is Sampson County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 North Myrtle Beach KCRE shows 981mb. Wow. By the way, I don't think I've ever seen an eyewall transition to a linear thunderstorm band like is what happening just north of Myrtle Beach. I was at Surfside for 2 summers so I am a little sad to see the storm surge go over the street (as per somebody's post on the SE subforum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Anyone surprised that tropical products have not been issued for southeast VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Whoever is under that convergence band...those rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Whoever is under that convergence band...those rates.... Someone posted in the SE forum that the TWC said that band has rates 6+ inches an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Someone posted in the SE forum that the TWC said that band has rates 6+ inches an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Rates have relaxed in the band. 20"+ totals now in some areas. What was it? Looked like a cross between an eyewall and a frontogenesis band. Could be a MAUL thrown in there like Erin and Sandy had. We will have to await further sounding analysis from mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 You tend to see those in storms like this that are becoming baroclinic. They will have a narrow convergence band. However this is one of the most vivid examples i can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 There was definitely some baroclinic contribution there. About a 10F spread in temps and 5-10F spread in dews across the band. I'll be interested to see what some of the final totals were underneath that. Radar estimates were certainly impressive, but they typically underestimate in deep warm-rain setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Given the state of the circulation I don't think it'll remain tropical to hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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