mempho Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Look up the 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane if you think this is over. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 i would imagine this is very close to the entire Georgia coastline without power, given the small size of the coastline and population density. Active Outages: 1,187 Affected Customers: 130,129 nearly all of the "affected customers" are along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It might not have been the absolute worst case scenario for the FL coast in the end but it was still a pretty darn lousy one. I personally think given the track that Matthew ended up taking (and is still taking staying just offshore with the eyewall for now) that the restructuring and subsequent spreading out of the wind field made for a higher impact on the Fl coast than if it would've been the more compact structure with the very high winds. We're really not going to see much of what happened in the northern half of the Florida coast where the center passed the closest until probably tomorrow and Sunday when the storm is all the way out of there... then we'll see how much of a "bust" it was. That's just Florida, obviously it is currently lashing SE GA into SC and I'm more than mildly concerned about the potential impacts from flooding and storm surge in those very vulnerable areas like Savannah and Charleston, where near term guidance is pretty insistent on at least scraping the SC coast with the center. Radar trends had shown a bit of a turn but the motion still looks mainly northerly. This thing might finally be heading toward an official CONUS landfall. Matthew is also dumping tremendous rainfall inland in GA/SC and getting into NC and inland flooding is likely to become a big issue. The OBX and even the Chesapeake region of SE VA have quietly been getting back into the fold of possibly seeing more significant impacts in the form of the heavy rain and stronger easterly winds that might make for coastal flooding issues all the way up there. Great post, and I too think the rainfall is a much overlooked aspect of this storm. The spreading eyewall was something else that was easily over looked by the intensity junkies. It's kind of a slow creep storm surge that won't be historic but will still cause a lot of hardship. This will actually end up being quite a costly storm due to the huge spread of impacted areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Radar estimates over 7" of rain has fallen near Savannah GA. KSVN airport reported 5.26" in just 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, e46and2 said: i would imagine this is very close to the entire Georgia coastline without power, given the small size of the coastline and population density. Active Outages: 1,187 Affected Customers: 130,129 nearly all of the "affected customers" are along the coast. Should be somewhere in the 1.5 million range w/o power between FL and NC by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Tybee ....Savannah with a jog west.....Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Great post, and I too think the rainfall is a much overlooked aspect of this storm. The spreading eyewall was something else that was easily over looked by the intensity junkies. It's kind of a slow creep storm surge that won't be historic but will still cause a lot of hardship. This will actually end up being quite a costly storm due to the huge spread of impacted areas. I know this is not the track but it is within the cone but..... the storm surge could be historic if this landfalls at Hilton Head or to the south from what I'm seeing. The SLOSH model would bring very high inundation levels. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I think he makes landfall overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 the reliable models have done an outstanding job with this storm for the past several days- i think many including myself found it hard to believe that the storm would follow the coastline, but indeed it has, hats off to modern forecasting give or take 10 or 15 miles lol....seriously, great job, taking a step back, they nailed this. things also looking very bleak for south carolina and georgia. the disaster that all the 'epic folks' have been looking for looks to be unfolding there very possibly tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I said last night I think it wouldn't make landfall in FL, I think now it'll have to make a pretty hard turn right soon to not make landfall in SC, and it's very likely the eyewall makes it onshore. Charleston's in for a world of hurt early tomorrow morning, especially if the center can make it to the west of there and drive winds onshore. The models turn it right very soon, hopefully for their sake we see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Gray's Reef Buoy (GA) 63mph gusting to 78mph, 19 ft significant wave height! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Quite ironic that media hyperbole turned out to be overdone for Florida but many of the broadcasts I've watched the past hour seem to be quite underdone for GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uscrudd Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 found this live video of tybee island..looks like its a few minutes away tybee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Quite ironic that media hyperbole turned out to be overdone for Florida but many of the broadcasts I've watched the past hour seem to be quite underdone for GA and SC. Probably because of what happened with a certain presidential candidate today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, sctvman said: Probably because of what happened with a certain presidential candidate today... Come morning that'll all be old news, after damage is revealed/known in FL/GA/SC. Nonethless, the damage in Florida was in no way overdone, storm surge impacts were tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, sctvman said: Probably because of what happened with a certain presidential candidate today... yea. but let's face it, the last couple of days, I haven't even touched talking about politics on my fb or twitter. keeping friends in the path of this storm up to date on things is much more important, especially since none of them have been Florida, SC, or Georgia since the last time a major hurricane struck the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Ukie goes ene off of hattteras and hooks back west into Central New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This is going to make landfall overnight. It hasn't started its turn right yet and almost looks like a little jog west on radar last few frames. It would have to hook right pretty hard to miss land at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 pressure gradient between Grays Reef buoy (in the eye) and Sapelo Island is 1.05 millibar per mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Yeah this thing isn't turning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Tybee Island about to get hit with the eye wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: pressure gradient between Grays Reef buoy (in the eye) and Sapelo Island is 1.05 millibar per mile That's incredible. I guess I had assumed the steep pressure gradient would have spread out as the winds did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beone1 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Checking in from Statesboro, Ga..50 miles northwest of Savannah..nasty conditions last few hours..gusts to 50-60...reports of up to 6 inches of rain and counting so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This thing has a mind of its own! It was to already be turned by now and its not. I think the Bermuda highis pushing it and the Jet stream is allowing the room for it. It could very well get pretty inland before it starts a turn. I think LF is getting real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The last few radar frames show perhaps the beginning of a turn to the right, it can't come soon enough. The eyewall is already almost on shore. It will have to hook NE fast to save it impacting Charleston. I'm also wondering if it'll be downgraded to Cat 1 soon-it already has the degraded "half-a-cane" look on radar with the south side destroyed by dry air, and over time the appearance continues to get more ragged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 not sure who at home is tracking this eye approach on say GR3 or other products. but on the Charleston SC radar in the last few frames, in the eye wall storms, I actually saw a possible hail icon start to show up, even if it was 10% for pea-sized hail with a vil of 16. Now i realize that this is most likely just a R+ or RX band. but still, last I knew tropical systems even of this magnitude shouldn't be showing hail signatures, especially now with dual pol. if anything, maybe a debris signature, or even a biological signature if birds got caught up in there. anyone else seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: not sure who at home is tracking this eye approach on say GR3 or other products. but on the Charleston SC radar in the last few frames, in the eye wall storms, I actually saw a possible hail icon start to show up, even if it was 10% for pea-sized hail with a vil of 16. Now i realize that this is most likely just a R+ or RX band. but still, last I knew tropical systems even of this magnitude shouldn't be showing hail signatures, especially now with dual pol. if anything, maybe a debris signature, or even a biological signature if birds got caught up in there. anyone else seeing that? I see the same though I dont really know what im looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Hurricane hunter should have some data coming in now from its latest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: not sure who at home is tracking this eye approach on say GR3 or other products. but on the Charleston SC radar in the last few frames, in the eye wall storms, I actually saw a possible hail icon start to show up, even if it was 10% for pea-sized hail with a vil of 16. Now i realize that this is most likely just a R+ or RX band. but still, last I knew tropical systems even of this magnitude shouldn't be showing hail signatures, especially now with dual pol. if anything, maybe a debris signature, or even a biological signature if birds got caught up in there. anyone else seeing that? Did not see a hail icon but VIL shows something about where the inner band is showing up with some red on BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDCHS&e=201610080530 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016 ...There has been a slight jog back to due north of Hurricane Matthew rather than east of due north from earlier. We certainly hope this is only temporary, but due to this since the eyewall is approaching the coast from Tybee to Hilton Head, we have a Special Weather Statement in effect for hurricane force wind gusts to likely occur overnight in and near these coastal communities... ------------------------------------------------------------ Very serious situation developing for these areas... watching some idiots walking around on Tybee Island right now... may see live fatalities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.