HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 11 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0"/hr are occurring the NW flank in the Savanna Area. Rivers and streams are going to fill up quick. I watched it in W MA with Irene. Heavy bands of rain that didn't seem that epic at the time but turned out to be catastrophic for many, especially in S VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Radar evolution has been fun to watch during the last few hours. I visit the Westin Savannah for golf outings. The geek in me wishes I could be there tonight.Love Savannah. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 storms eye wall on radar looks good for a landfall at some point in coastal south carolina imop. If this does make it to land, going to see serious impacts. impressive structure still too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 From @JoeySovine: Tropical storm force winds fully underway along the coast of Charleston County. Wind gusts to 53 in Downtown, 55 Fort Sumter, 52 Folly Pier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 It does appear the center is a bit E of the currently NHC track. Maybe the NE turn will occur quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: It does appear the center is a bit E of the currently NHC track. Maybe the NE turn will occur quicker? looks to be closing in on the coastline to me. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Flagler Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, dan11295 said: It does appear the center is a bit E of the currently NHC track. Maybe the NE turn will occur quicker? I don't think any NE turns are going to save Charleston at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 1 hour ago, sctvman said: And the October flooding last year was not from a tropical system. You didn't have surge like we are having tonight. from Charleston's latest forecast discussion (6:59 pm)...... Matthew approaches the area from the south later today and tonight. There will be at least moderate coastal flooding with the midday high tide, but it`s the high tide around 12-2 am tonight that`s the most concerning when significant coastal flooding will likely occur. Tide levels are forecast to approach or even surpass those during October of 2015, meaning levels could exceed 8.0 ft MLLW at Charleston and more than 11.0 ft MLLW at Ft. Pulaski. This would be the second highest crest on record for Ft. Pulaski, exceeded only by Hurricane David which produced a 12.21 foot crest in 1979. It would also be in the top 5 or 10 crests on record for Charleston. These levels will be accompanied by moderate or heavy rains, creating an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas and in downtown Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I don't think any NE turns are going to save Charleston at this point. Visually, that trough sure does not look like much compared to Matt. Sure hope the mechanism to kick Matt east works, else many folks inland could be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: Picture is from 2009. Thanks,my bad then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 So what has been the max storm surge so far in Florida. Isabel was 7.9ft in 2003, Irene was 7.7ft in 2011 here in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Visually, that trough sure does not look like much compared to Matt. Sure hope the mechanism to kick Matt east works, else many folks inland could be caught off guard. I think many inland will be caught off guard by flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think many inland will be caught off guard by flash flooding. Agree. Possibly a hurricane inland with a disintegrating eyewall too though. Maybe a met and/or board standard could post with how its looking for that east kick we need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Looks like a 100 MPH+ landfall at Savanah, Georgia if that eye wall band keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 from Ryan Maue tropical cyclone ACE page, Matthew has 46.0 ACE units already. I wonder how long it has been since an Atlantic storm had more than 46 ACE units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 920 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2016 ...Matthew's eye is forecast to come uncomfortably close to the Charleston Metro area with the potential for the western eye wall to brush areas such as Kiawah Island, Folly Beach, Downtown Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Isle of Palms and Sullivan's Island with gusts in excess of 100 mph. The worst conditions will occur overnight into Saturday. Solid tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions, particularly in frequent gusts, expected along the Georgia and far Southern South Carolina coasts. For Edisto Beach up across Charleston County, the risk for sustained hurricane force winds is still increasing, especially along/east of Highway 17, including Downtown Charleston. Frequent gusts to hurricane force could occur as far inland as Summerville. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS...any slight deviation to the right or left of this track could significantly alter what level of impacts are realized. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: No reason for kids to be there. None whatsoever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Comical how many people lost interest in this thread because Matthew wasn't "epic" enough for them. There is some serious weather going on right now on the SE coast and well inland. I can't stop refreshing the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Gray's Reef buoy 41008 has 16.1 ft significant wave height, directly east of Sapelo Island GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Weather channel stating that st Augustine beach suffered catastrophic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 39 minutes ago, Chinook said: from Ryan Maue tropical cyclone ACE page, Matthew has 46.0 ACE units already. I wonder how long it has been since an Atlantic storm had more than 46 ACE units. Ivan was the last to have this much ACE (70.38). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This certainly doesn't look like it is going to weaken much, and if it landfalls even slightly west of Charlestown I would think it would be pretty damn catastrophic there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Okay, I was at Hilton Head during TS Andrea. I just looked at the track again and I'm afraid south Hilton Head is going to get crushed with surge tonight. This will not be good down there unless this turns east very quickly. The waves were breaking on the dunes during high tide with Andrea. The track was very similar and we had at least a 4 foot surge with a tropical storm. I remember thinking that we only needed another couple of 3 feet or we'd have had a lot of flooding. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Looks like Beaufort Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Gray's Reef buoy (GA) 65mph gust, 17.7ft waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Comical how many people lost interest in this thread because Matthew wasn't "epic" enough for them. There is some serious weather going on right now on the SE coast and well inland. I can't stop refreshing the radar. It might not have been the absolute worst case scenario for the FL coast in the end but it was still a pretty darn lousy one. I personally think given the track that Matthew ended up taking (and is still taking staying just offshore with the eyewall for now) that the restructuring and subsequent spreading out of the wind field made for a higher impact on the Fl coast than if it would've been the more compact structure with the very high winds. We're really not going to see much of what happened in the northern half of the Florida coast where the center passed the closest until probably tomorrow and Sunday when the storm is all the way out of there... then we'll see how much of a "bust" it was. That's just Florida, obviously it is currently lashing SE GA into SC and I'm more than mildly concerned about the potential impacts from flooding and storm surge in those very vulnerable areas like Savannah and Charleston, where near term guidance is pretty insistent on at least scraping the SC coast with the center. Radar trends had shown a bit of a turn but the motion still looks mainly northerly. This thing might finally be heading toward an official CONUS landfall. Matthew is also dumping tremendous rainfall inland in GA/SC and getting into NC and inland flooding is likely to become a big issue. The OBX and even the Chesapeake region of SE VA have quietly been getting back into the fold of possibly seeing more significant impacts in the form of the heavy rain and stronger easterly winds that might make for coastal flooding issues all the way up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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