pcbjr Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Nice current representation https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The media and NHC were right to hype the storm up. The hype probably saved lives. Imagine if they didn't hype up the potential and called for a miss to the east, but then were faced with a cat 4 storm jogging west of where anticipated and slamming into Ft Lauderdale or West Palm Beach on its way up I-95 to Jacksonville? That would have cost an untold number of lives, and damage would be in the many billions. FL is also overdue for a devastating cat 4 or 5 impact somewhere on its east coast, most likely the stretch from Miami to West Palm Beach. agreed. I know I hyped up to High School friends that were in the path, and given how close the eye wall is to the coast, and that hurricane force winds extended as much as 60 miles inland, and that attm, winds are 60+ in Jacksonville, and earlier where two of those friends live (but thankfully evacuated from) had gusts recorded near/above 75mph in Flagler County, I have no qualms about doing it. Another one up in Beaufort SC got out as soon as the order was given. And a fifth one up near Wilmington NC is watching closely, being ready to go if needed. Thankfully I keep those type of warnings rather rare from me (probably too rare for some of those places where I apply for jobs with), with the reasoning being I don't want to "push the button" until I really have to. I'd like it where if I'm saying something, believe the risk. maybe it makes me a lot more conservative than most mets, but given my experience over the years, it's something that I picked up. it's the instinct that develops with time with most mets and experienced non-met forecasters (especially the good ones) that we need more of in the weather enterprise, imho. *stepping off the soapbox and yielding back the balance of my time* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Hurricane Matthew death toll in Haiti rises to 842 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Nice current representation https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1301 Not trying to one-up, and I generally don't post, but someone linked me this earlier. Similar, but has a lot of controls such as the timeline at the bottom. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.33;-79.10;6&l=gust&w=0xIAb9A9A (I assume most people here have seen this, and/or it doesn't get mentioned because it's gimmicky (? I'm not a met) but posting just in case.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 12Z HRF and GFDL no longer want to do the full loop scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 St Augustine is going to have some flooding issues. Surge plus hours of torrential rain. I know some folks are disappointed this was not a direct hit but I wouldn't want to be in N Fl coastal towns right now. No power, hurricane force gusts, moderate surge and sideways rain sounds pretty unpleasant for non-weather weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Fire hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: St Augustine is going to have some flooding issues. Surge plus hours of torrential rain. I know some folks are disappointed this was not a direct hit but I wouldn't want to be in N Fl coastal towns right now. No power, hurricane force gusts, moderate surge and sideways rain sounds pretty unpleasant for non-weather weenies! I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sustained hurricane winds in the locations you are referring to very soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 According to my untrained eye, Matthew appears to have either slowed dramatically or stalled the last hour or so. I even see some hints of a wobble to the SE on the latest radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The media and NHC were right to hype the storm up. The hype probably saved lives. Imagine if they didn't hype up the potential and called for a miss to the east, but then were faced with a cat 4 storm jogging west of where anticipated and slamming into Ft Lauderdale or West Palm Beach on its way up I-95 to Jacksonville? That would have cost an untold number of lives, and damage would be in the many billions. FL is also overdue for a devastating cat 4 or 5 impact somewhere on its east coast, most likely the stretch from Miami to West Palm Beach. I am quite surprised by the lack of Cat 4 hurricanes on the Florida east coast. They were quite common, atleast 1-2 per decade throughout the first half of the 20th century. 1926, 1928, 1933, 1935, ect ect into the 40s. With the exception of Andrew, we haven't seen any Cat 4 or 5 landfalls on the east coast of Florida. I think it's pure luck. Matthew almost achieved that today, Ike in 2008 was pushed too far south but would have been an impact. Frances fell apart. Pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: According to my untrained eye, Matthew appears to have either slowed dramatically or stalled the last hour or so. I even some hints of a wobble to the SE on the latest radar loop. I was thinking the same thing. Barely moved on radar the past hour and torrential rains feeding into the area from St Augustine to Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Tibet said: I wouldn't be at all surprised to see sustained hurricane winds in the locations you are referring to very soon... Yup, and the storm is crawling so even with minimal hurricane winds the ground is getting pretty saturated for the tree roots to hold on. I'm also thinking Charleston is in for a pretty good show later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Still 115PMH at 2PM. 947MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I know it's been a bust () but pretty cool satellite imagery of sand churned up in the Bahamas. Today: 10/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just venting right now. CNN is doing a whole segment of the problems of families in Disney World and at the same time Reuters is reporting 862 people dead with the toll expected to go much higher. Village after village wiped out with whole populations without food, shelter or clean water. Such a disconnect. We are so lucky to live in the US where we can argue what warnings were or were not warranted. I'm sure most people on that island outside of Port Au Prince didn't even know a hurricane was approaching. Edit. I guess CNN is going to do a update on Haiti coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Storm surge was still, and is still pretty significant. Stop pretending like this won't wind up as a major disaster, especially for places along the GA/SC coast. Haiti got obliterated too, with mass loss of life and large portions of entire cities basically wiped off the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Environment on the E side of Matthew is highly favorable for supercells and tornadoes via mesoanalysis with a large amount of instability present for a TC. Might lead to a relatively high threat to the Carolina coast later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: St Augustine is going to have some flooding issues. Surge plus hours of torrential rain. I know some folks are disappointed this was not a direct hit but I wouldn't want to be in N Fl coastal towns right now. No power, hurricane force gusts, moderate surge and sideways rain sounds pretty unpleasant for non-weather weenies! Anastasia Island the water is 2.5 ft above ground level right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 36 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Just venting right now. CNN is doing a whole segment of the problems of families in Disney World and at the same time Reuters is reporting 862 people dead with the toll expected to go much higher. Village after village wiped out with whole populations without food, shelter or clean water. Such a disconnect. We are so lucky to live in the US where we can argue what warnings were or were not warranted. I'm sure most people on that island outside of Port Au Prince didn't even know a hurricane was approaching. Edit. I guess CNN is going to do a update on Haiti coming up. Saw a similar report on families disappointed by the Disney closure while the Haiti death toll scrolled across the bottom. Began gritting my teeth and turned off the television.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 ECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 329 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 GAZ116>119-138>141-SCZ043>045-047>052-072130- INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM- INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH- INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT- COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY- 329 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016 ...PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE MATTHEW SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE MATTHEW ARE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE MATTHEW DRAWS CLOSER. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 My family live on St. Augustine Beach on Anastasia Island right along the intercoastal waterway/salt run. They evacuated but have neighbors giving reports. There are some docks that have floated off and taken up camp next to their dock. One neighbor's boat came loose and was floating toward my parent's dock but the owner jumped in the water and saved it before it crashed. The general sense is there will definitely be a fair amount of flooding - the water was up over the docks but not to the houses and there will be docks and piers destroyed plus some wind damage but nothing extreme. I'll be eager to get their pictures and can post some up after the storm if folks are interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, mattb65 said: My family live on St. Augustine Beach on Anastasia Island right along the intercoastal waterway/salt run. They evacuated but have neighbors giving reports. There are some docks that have floated off and taken up camp next to their dock. One neighbor's boat came loose and was floating toward my parent's dock but the owner jumped in the water and saved it before it crashed. The general sense is there will definitely be a fair amount of flooding - the water was up over the docks but not to the houses and there will be docks and piers destroyed plus some wind damage but nothing extreme. I'll be eager to get their pictures and can post some up after the storm if folks are interested. Sounds like someone is really eager for a darwin award nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 So say this makes landfall in Charlestown as a 100 mph storm? What would impacts be like there. I'd imagine it would be fairly devastating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: So say this makes landfall in Charlestown as a 100 mph storm? What would impacts be like there. I'd imagine it would be fairly devastating? water will be the main danger moreso than wind. downtown is extremely prone to flooding and the surge/onshore wind + 10"+ of rain will be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: So say this makes landfall in Charlestown as a 100 mph storm? What would impacts be like there. I'd imagine it would be fairly devastating? Going to really depend on if the center goes E or W of Charleston but should be a pretty good smack either way if the winds stay in the low cat 3 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Just venting right now. CNN is doing a whole segment of the problems of families in Disney World and at the same time Reuters is reporting 862 people dead with the toll expected to go much higher. Village after village wiped out with whole populations without food, shelter or clean water. Such a disconnect. We are so lucky to live in the US where we can argue what warnings were or were not warranted. I'm sure most people on that island outside of Port Au Prince didn't even know a hurricane was approaching. Edit. I guess CNN is going to do a update on Haiti coming up. They knew. You don't grow up down there without knowing what a bad storm looks like. Problem is, there isn't much they can do about it. Les Cayes was in the worst possible position, perpendicular to a Category 4 surge in an alluvial plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I'm 10 min SW of downtown Jax. Pretty heavy squalls right now but nothing too extreme, quite a few trees down. Local video and pics from the beaches look pretty rough. Had this thing been another 30 miles west, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Jaguars said: I'm 10 min SW of downtown Jax. Pretty heavy squalls right now but nothing too extreme, quite a few trees down. Local video and pics from the beaches look pretty rough. Had this thing been another 30 miles west, yikes. Are you in Avondale? Park Street area? If so, how's the river near you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 From J_Nubz: "The (Jacksonville Beach) pier is being ripped away as we speak. The end of it is gone." - WJXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWGAstormdawg Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Major surge damage being reported from St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach/Amelia Island into St. Mary's, Georgia. NWS Jax has a flash flood emergency for Fernandina/Amelia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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