MJO812 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: UK and Euro both have it getting to Hatteras now? UK and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, yoda said: taking a peek at the radar, some heavy weather moving into the area. My eye indicate the heaviest part of the eye wall clip or miss the cape by 10 miles +/- This is going to me a photo finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Almost looks like a westward bump as the new eye starts to take over. Anyone else seeing this? The inner eye is orbiting around the outer eye, so it could look a little west right now... That inner eyewall will not let go though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 there must be a decent storm surge occurring at the coast now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif You can see some of the outflow to the north dealing with shear now (over the panhandle and near Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Melbourne FL radar (KMLB) vertical wind profiler is now close enough to the storm to get 70kt winds at 2000-3000ft above ground, 60kt at 1000ft. Melbourne airport wind gust to 60mph (52kt) at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Peak gust on land 05z (0100h EDT) was 70 mph at Vero Beach. Gusts to 50 knots at buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral. I am seeing that westward drift, still calling for a landfall near Cape Canaveral but could see it closer to Cocoa Beach the way this is evolving. That might mean eye inland until it gets past the cape and perhaps as far as Daytona Beach (at times, there may be wobbles up the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Basing off of SDP and reflectivity, the outer eye wall is definitely becoming dominant. Inner eye may finally dissolve in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Buoy 41114 near the beach of Ft Pierce has 21.0 ft significant wave height. Now that is a fairly scary wave height! You don't usually have a lot of buoys that can directly measure wave heights from a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Per recon, appears Matthew may have taken a bit more of a westerly jog. (deleted original post, since the image messed up.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Cloud top temps have noticeably warmed over the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 CNN: Fire chief at Satellite Beach estimates 8 feet of storm surge already, 11-13 ft was predicted there, peak expected 3-4 hours. He says all under control to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Yea, the west wobble is real per twc TS expert. Next few hours are crucial for cape can zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Peak gust on land 05z (0100h EDT) was 70 mph at Vero Beach. Gusts to 50 knots at buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral. I am seeing that westward drift, still calling for a landfall near Cape Canaveral but could see it closer to Cocoa Beach the way this is evolving. That might mean eye inland until it gets past the cape and perhaps as far as Daytona Beach (at times, there may be wobbles up the coast). With all do respect roger, looking at the current radar image, my non pro opinion is a mis by 30 miles near the cape. Taking a nap for 2 hrs, maybe I see a raking 4 am. may god bless the people tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Cape Canaveral is going to get hit by the western eyewall at the very least, barring some sudden shift to the right (east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The Vehicle Assembly building is going to have a tough night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Interesting that the last pass was reporting a 14 NM eye closed and the pass before was reporting 43 NM eye closed. Did they miss the IEW that one pass? Anyway pressure back down to 938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 AM Advisory from NHC downgrades to a Cat 3. Max winds 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 No surprise, it's losing the inner eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Jeff Piotrowski just reported on his periscope feed of a buoy 30 miles off the coast reporting a 17 ft wave height ahead of the eye wall. https://www.periscope.tv/w/1ypKdoqLzALxW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Convection starting to flare around the inner eye last few radar frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 16 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: No surprise, it's losing the inner eye. The "inner eye" is still clearly visible on radar. The storm has just weakened slightly overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Peak winds both 06z and 07z (0200h and 0300h EDT) were gusts to 71 mph at Vero Beach, joined by Melbourne in the later hour. Peak gusts at the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy have peaked as high as 58 knots. Landfall situation looks about the same, most probably partial landfall near Cape Canaveral, would say 0730h EDT to 0830h EDT. Will predict peak gusts to 110 mph at Melbourne but possibly 120-130 away from measuring sites in Titusville and Port Canaveral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Good ol' buoy 41009, above, and and 41114 just to its west are both reporting 20+' wave heights. 41114 - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41114 - 23.6ft at 2:30 Eastern (almost an hour ago) 41009 - 42.7KT winds, 56.3KT Gusting ... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009 - 22.6ft at 2:50 Eastern Update: 41009 is reporting 50K winds, 68G, and 29.9ft wave heights as of 3:50am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 08z (0400h EDT) peak winds on land ___ 74 mph (W) at Vero Beach, 67 mph (N) at Melbourne also 64 kt (about 75 mph) gusts from northeast at ocean buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral. Intense outer eyewall bands west to northwest of eye are very close to outer barrier islands around Cocoa Beach, expect wind gusts there to ramp up to near 100 mph soon. Eye center appears to be 35 miles e.s.e. Melbourne, recent motion is about 320 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 On radar it looks like the inner eye wall is finally giving up... Outer looks to be taking over and getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 30+ ft waves 20 NM east of Cape Canaveral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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