winterymix Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Really, it is tracking the forecast points and is forecast to get more of a NNW or NW component soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 from what I see off the 0 z NAM, it seems the storm may make landfall or skirt the coast in northern fl hour 18 provided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The OEW is starting to creep into the IEW it's like watching a lion vs an elk on National Geo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Thread would be so much more readable without all of the premature post-storm analysis. Nobody is going to care if you were the first to pinpoint the exact landfall location, properly call a bust, or have picked the "right" computer model in your capacity as a hobbyist. For the sake of those of us here to read reasoned analysis from the pros and to the extent that such p**sing contest antics qualify as banter, keep it in the banter thread!! That's why it's there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Here is video from Freeport somebody posted on FB:https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154586868414911&id=516264910That video was upload over 4 1/2 hours ago before the eye moved over the city. Intense reflectivity in the NE eyewall that parked over the western portion of the city for over an hour between 6:15 and 7:45 EST and eventually pushed through. Of course, not sure where he was located when the video was recorded. Anxiously awaiting word from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, jh28wd40 said: The OIW is starting to creep into the IEW it's like watching a lion vs an elk on National Geo... Yeah...sure does look that way. That strong area of convection that was hanging out on the NE inner eye wall is now moving to the north/north west side and the NE side looks weak...it sure looks like it is giving way to the OIW. Would make a rather large eye wall if that does occur, which would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 NAM is slightly further west over northern florida. Doesn't really turn N as quickly and just generally heads NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 If this comes in north of the Cape I think it may be the first ever major hurricane to landfall between Savannah and that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 A 328 degree heading will send the western eyewall into Canaveral from where it sits right now. KMLB shows 100+mph winds with it. Stop with the no landfall posts already. I don't know that it will and you don't know that it won't, but at least use some facts to back up the speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 What does OIW stand for? I get IEW but sometimes this jargon is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Right now, the OEW is sitting ~40 miles from West Palm Beach, Florida. Unless this takes a sharp Northern turn soon that eye wall it is on track for Canaveral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said: What does OIW stand for? I get IEW but sometimes this jargon is a bit much. outer eye wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said: What does OIW stand for? I get IEW but sometimes this jargon is a bit much. I failed to type properly, It was supposed to be OEW for outer eye wall, but i failed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 14 minutes ago, winterymix said: Really, it is tracking the forecast points and is forecast to get more of a NNW or NW component soon. Did you mean more a WNW / NW component soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, F-5 said: A 328 degree heading will send the western eyewall into Canaveral from where it sits right now. KMLB shows 100+mph winds with it. Stop with the no landfall posts already. I don't know that it will and you don't know that it won't, but at least use some facts to back up the speculation. Basing off of a center-fix from KMLB velocities, the center should get very close, if not cross over, the cape. I generally prefer velocities for tracking the center/movement on radar, significantly less noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Dear lord some of you need to take a break. This thread is derailing. I would agree the Space Coast is still very much at risk and yes the oblique angle makes this very difficult. If for some reason it were to miss I am thinking most would be more than happy with that outcome who live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 A 328 degree heading will send the western eyewall into Canaveral from where it sits right now. KMLB shows 100+mph winds with it. Stop with the no landfall posts already. I don't know that it will and you don't know that it won't, but at least use some facts to back up the speculation. So actual satellite trajectory isn't fact? Actual model output showing offshore isn't fact? If those aren't fact, visual facts, I'm not sure what is. Look Im not trying to downplay this but the idea of a LF in central FL has diminished quite a bit from this time last night. You're right though.....nobody knows for certain but I have stated facts. I'm cheering against LF btw fwiw. I don't want a natural disaster. I also have family stuck in Disney World attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So actual satellite trajectory isn't fact? Actual model output showing offshore isn't fact? If those aren't fact, visual facts, I'm not sure what is. Look Im not trying to downplay this but the idea of a LF in central FL has diminished quite a bit from this time last night. You're right though.....nobody knows for certain but I have stated facts. I'm cheering against LF bow fwiw. I don't want a natural disaster. I also have family stuck in Disney World attm. No one could tell...and sorry to hear that you have family stuck in the path of this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So actual satellite trajectory isn't fact? Actual model output showing offshore isn't fact? If those aren't fact, visual facts, I'm not sure what is. Look Im not trying to downplay this but the idea of a LF in central FL has diminished quite a bit from this time last night. You're right though.....nobody knows for certain but I have stated facts. I'm cheering against LF btw fwiw. I don't want a natural disaster. I also have family stuck in Disney World attm. The good news Disney World should be fine. They will get some close to Hurricane force gust. The odds of this making it that far inland are very small (not saying it can't happen), but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 No one could tell...and sorry to hear that you have family stuck in the path of this storm...Sorry for off-topic slightly. Back to discussion. If, as some suggested, this OEW takes over and the overall eye expands, that certainly increases the chance for a LF by definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Looking at the Melbourne radar long range loop, Matt does appear to be working toward a possible Canaveral landfall http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=N0Z&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Am sitting in Cocoa Beach. Did a careful analysis of the motion on the radar loop for several hours, and projected that forward- this results on the center of the eye being approx 15 lines east of Cape Canaveral at 12Z. This is very much like the 0Z 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Looks like what's left of the northern side of the former eye is starting to merge with the "new" inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Did you mean more a WNW / NW component soon? Yeah. I'm more concerned for SC than I am for FL. It is difficult to imagine the amount of seawater that will pile up on the SC coast over many hours. Looking at the NAM, the SC coastline is in big trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 14 minutes ago, DoctorMu said: Yeah, he would barely be able to talk and the trees would be stripped of their foliage; many knocked down. Agree, but I think he only gave raw numbers...never said mph. I think he's using kph. And,no, I didn't calculate the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The NAM follows the coastline perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So actual satellite trajectory isn't fact? Actual model output showing offshore isn't fact? If those aren't fact, visual facts, I'm not sure what is. Look Im not trying to downplay this but the idea of a LF in central FL has diminished quite a bit from this time last night. You're right though.....nobody knows for certain but I have stated facts. I'm cheering against LF btw fwiw. I don't want a natural disaster. I also have family stuck in Disney World attm. 80+mph winds associated with the western eyewall are currently 11.3 miles from the coast near Jupiter, FL. 11.3 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: Agree, but I think he only gave raw numbers...never said mph. I think he's using kph. And,no, I didn't calculate the difference. Multiply by 0.6. More reasonable, then 140 kph = 84 mph. The Boston-like accent threw me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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