Amped Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Its a good bit NNE of where last nights euro had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 west palm live cam decent quality with what looks like a nice squall approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Latest dropsonde revealed a pressure of 937mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Its a good bit NNE of where last nights euro had it. It's definitely a little east of the NHC track last night and looks like it recently took another N jog. From where it is now the FL coast slopes NNW, so it will really have to head NW to make landfall anywhere. Maybe another wild card though is how long before it heads N then NE, since that then affects GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Latest dropsonde found the pressure down to 937mb. 2kts winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 per metwannabe in the SE forum. early 00z models shift a bit east off fl. more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, DopplerWx said: per metwannabe in the SE forum. early 00z models shift a bit east off fl. more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston. Good-down the middle of that path gives a lashing and nothing more to the coast. For surge, you really need a landfall to have anything that significant, and optimally you want a perpendicular track to the coast, not along or parallel to the coast. I'm sure some places will have some significant flooding, but nothing like a track inland anyplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Watch this thing stay 75 miles off the FL coast with only moderate impact, ride the Gulf Stream Northeast, explode in intensity and slam SC head-on! That would be a real kick in the teeth for forecasters. Floridians would never trust forecasters again, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: per metwannabe in the SE forum. early 00z models shift a bit east off fl. more of a northern component here in a few hrs until a close call w/ charleston. So only a couple models now showing actual LF? What a roller coaster ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Lets not get ahead of ourselves here... if we want to be honest with one another we don't fully understand what is occurring inside this storm atm and underestimating it now could be disastrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde. Let's face it. It's not a beast. It's trying to replace its eye. Winds will not be nearly as strong for several hours more at least. Once it finishes winds have an opportunity to reconsolidate in the new eyewall. Remember just before Haiti, where the same process occurred right before landfall? Still plowed ashore with winds much stronger than were observed off shore hours earlier. I personally think we see an uptick in intensity later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Morris said: Only 54kts in the western eyewall measured by a new dropsonde. Let's face it. It's not a beast. The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. Neither will make landfall with that track so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust. Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: This may not bode well for the public who may not evacuate the next time. For sure. Not a good day or week for that matter for the NHC. At least here in the US. Worst place for that to happen. Florida... There WILL BE ANOTHER ANDREW ONE DAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, eurojosh said: First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust. Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast. The HRRR has been consistently too far west for the last day. This morning it had it coming ashore north of PBI. FL may have just dodged a huge bullet. Nothing more than decent gale force winds ashore yet, and from the eye now the shore slopes NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The western eyewall usually is never the worst part of it, the north and east is. The radar on it hasn't looked good all day anyway. The NE eyewall has always been where the worst convection and effects have been today. That drop, I believe, occurred on the very inner portion of the Eyewall (so closer to the eye, where winds will of course he weaker), so it was weaker than you might expect. It is definitely stronger than 54kts, even in the western IEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Per radar, the only 100+ MPH winds would be located in the northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, eurojosh said: First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust. Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast. I think Jax and areas slightly south of there are still under the gun but there is no questioning that Central Florida and south is not going to face nearly what was feared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 First, it's waaay too early to be calling bust. Second, 00z hrrr is insistent on having it bend west as the eyewall comes closer to the coast.The HRRR also had it landfalling near Lauderdale earlier today. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Freeport got hit hard, any early damage reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 HRRR seems to have a west bias with Matthew. Last night there tweets going out about how the HRRR was showing a close hit to Miami. Below is the 18z run for roughly now and it's west by a good bit. I do think it's going to get really close to landfall in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The HRRR also had it landfalling near Lauderdale earlier today. Just saying. When the only model showing a hit is the 16hr HRRR, it's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Check out Levi's 8:35pm update for information on the eyewall rings and wobbling and other issues http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Good info with zero hype, and layman-friendly-enough I can send it to the family and friends deluging me with questions. Thank you Levi! (edit to fix typo noticed just as Save was pressed argh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 A wobble wont do it at this point for FL LF. Matthew needs to take on a WNW trajectory or FL LF wont be happening. Would be best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch this thing stay 75 miles off the FL coast with only moderate impact, ride the Gulf Stream Northeast, explode in intensity and slam SC head-on! That would be a real kick in the teeth for forecasters. Floridians would never trust forecasters again, lol. From here in Boca Raton: NO COMPLAINTS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: If you take the average path of the 5 recon fixes from the NOAA plane the storm ends up 10-15 miles offshore of Cape Canaveral. Throw out the first one and just use the last 4 and it makes landfall there. Seems like it's kinda on track to me. Seriously... Wish the IEW would just die off so people would better understand the direction this is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Even with an eyewall miss there's still going to be widespread power outages, surge inundation up in N FL and GA on top of 10" rain so not exactly sure I'd call it a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Is it me or does it look like the inner eyewall is collapsing on the southside and giving way a bigger eyewall? Because if it is...you could end up with a 50nm mile eye, which is a lot different than a 20nm wide eye and you could still get a LF/severe damage with the center hanging 25-50 miles offshore. Oh and it sure does still look like its moving WNW/NWI see a nnw/nw motion last 3-4 hours. Those offshore tracks South of Jacksonville are probably going to verify. Most of FL may be dodging a huge bullet attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I see a nnw/nw motion last 3-4 hours. Those offshore tracks South of Jacksonville are probably going to verify. Most of FL may be dodging a huge bullet attm. Well, I guess we both see something different. I don't think FL has dodged anything yet. It would be nice if it does, next 4 hours will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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