illinois Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 56 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mark Levin has JB on if anyone is interested. You lost me at Mark Levin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I think we might have lost our buoy by Freeport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Last nights GFS had landfall in the next few hours, not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knglover Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 For those that care to save this camera view. It is of Port Canaveral... http://www.portcanaveralwebcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 13 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Im so confused. How can this be a cat 4 if recon is only finding up to 85-90 knot surface winds. There was a dropsonde with surface winds of 113 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Overall circulation as a whole is still moving NW, or maybe NNW.. Stop paying so much attention to the IEW, as was said earlier, you will literally drive yourself crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 56mph sustained at the mesonet in Juno beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 CNN graphic st bottom of screen says Cat 3 while clearly stating 130 mph winds! Man, our media is just full of imbeciles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 00z (8 pm EDT) highest gust in FL __ 48 mph (West Palm Beach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Lot of lightning showing up in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Roger Smith said: 00z (8 pm EDT) highest gust in FL __ 48 mph (West Palm Beach) I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory: The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, eurojosh said: 23z hrrr seems to show rapid improvement in organization in the next couple of hours followed by a long and heavy landfall. it's not a tropical model, so more sure about the track than the intensification, but something to keep an eye on, no pun intended. If the band Near daytona collapses into the storm like the HRRR is showing that may give it an intensity boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Some of the meso models do show a bend to the wnw over the next few hours (a few hour jog wnw). Should be interesting timeframe b/n now and 1 or 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 BTW the eye just cleared out for the first time on IR. Can actually see all the way down to the ocean at 00:15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I know you're probably just going by the NWS list of observations, but here's from the 8 pm advisory: The Lake Worth Pier near Palm Beach, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h). I'm aware of those reports, this is a log of highest wind gusts at land stations or maybe I should say regular airport weather stations. But I will include these supplementary and offshore sites from now on since we have this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Even the official NHC track doesn't take the center fully over land at any point, just very close. Either way if the eyewall drags the heavily populated coast of FL it is a disaster. I wouldn't write off a landfall just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Last hour or so the OEW seems to have filled in. Is this the result of the end of the eye wall replacement cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 nicole is just getting just raked by matthew's outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 27 minutes ago, winterymix said: CNN has reports of people refusing to evacuate. Probably the best possible outcome for those folks is two weeks without electricity. You know I am sure that a lot of those folks would not have a problem with leaving if it was not for one thing. And that is the authorities that are going to stop them from returning home for days, weeks, or months after the hurricane is gone. That is the part that would make me hesitant to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I think we might have lost our buoy by Freeport... Yep! Hasn't reported in over a hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 22 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit. I know, Cape Canaveral is the wild card, but the last 6 hours or so makes me think the eye stays offshore. Models shifting a little bit east gives me some more confidence. The western eyewall might make it here or there however. In terms of really devastating impact, hopefully it stays offshore. If it does, winds will be where building codes can handle, and surge won't be too bad a problem because winds will be offshore. But I definitely might wake up tomorrow morning eating crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Some of the meso models do show a bend to the wnw over the next few hours (a few hour jog wnw). Should be interesting timeframe b/n now and 1 or 2 am. I was just reviewing the radar. If the current trend continues, some of the calls of kissing Cape Canaveral may be right. Regardless, some nicee feeder bands making to the west coast of Florida. Possible rogue twisters in the cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, larrye said: I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall? Quote Some tropical cyclones with extremely large outer eyewalls do not experience the contraction of the outer eye and subsequent dissipation of the inner eye. Typhoon Winnie (1997) developed an outer eyewall with a diameter of 200 kilometres (120 mi) that did not dissipate until it reached the shoreline.[25] The time required for the eyewall to collapse is inversely related to the diameter of the eyewall which is mostly because inward directed wind decreases asymptotically to zero with distance from the radius of maximum winds, but also due to the distance required to collapse the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Thanks for that explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Inner eyewall is choking. S and SW parts are dissipating as the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs whats left of the inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Inner eyewall is choking. S and SW parts are dissipating as the outer eyewall contracts and absorbs whats left of the inner eyewall. what does your post imply. storm is not going to get stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 OEW has definitely been strengthening recently... Also expanding in size/breadth. West palm beach about to get hit with the westernmost OEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: what does your post imply. storm is not going to get stronger? Not for the time being, as the outer eyewall constricts, it begins to starve the inner eyewall. Thus it begins to fall apart, and the pieces that are left become absorbed into the newly formed eyewall. Once the inner eyewall gives up and falls apart, the storm can resume its strengthening. But, as long as there are concentric eyewalls the storm will not strengthen much, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.