Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 23z (7 pm EDT) max wind gust on land in FL ... 45 mph at West Palm Beach this hour has remained steady-state for most locations, expecting some increases at the next hour though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Freeport had a rough go of it with Frances and Jeanne. But this is potentially much worse it due to approach and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Pressure at that buoy was 972mb at 23z. It should be in or near the eye by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Tropical noob question. Is the North East or North West quadrant the most likely place for tornado development? Or is it one of the South quadrants ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I think this Wunderground PWS is actually that station we keep referring to by Settlement Point: https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:MSPGF1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, knitwx said: Tropical noob question. Is the North East or North West quadrant the most likely place for tornado development? Or is it one of the South quadrants ? Believe it depends on the motion of the storm. The right side relative to the motion I believe has the best tornado odds. Have also heard RFQ for best chance at tornadoes. There will definitely be tornado risk but highest risk could remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Derecho! said: 18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. Worse case senario, storm hugs the coast just far enough not to weaken but close enough to get the RMW on land. Everyone below the NC/SC border gets 100mph winds. Not that I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier. Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier. Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO? Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 That inner eyewall just doesnt give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 PM Advisory 130/939 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other. The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out 5 minutes ago, wxmx said: Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other. I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation. From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out. Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, Derecho! said: 18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. is this model legit or just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: is this model legit or just noise. It is a legitimate model, unlike, say the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: is this model legit or just noise. Legit usually for a developed system... Struggles with undeveloped systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Derecho! said: It is a legitimate model, unlike, say the NAM. thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Seems a scoot to the near due north the last several frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Animal said: thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc. There actually are more GFS ensemble members (4-5) with a SC landfall than there are for a FL landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Animal said: thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc. Well better yet I have family that lives in St Augustine and they decided to only move 10 miles inland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Is there still an ERC taking place? because it looks like what was the semi-eyewall has since become more spiral in nature, and kinda wraps into the old inner eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation. From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out. Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now? The models have them relatively weak, so the low pressure fields never interact with each other....I would probably look to having them <300 miles between each other to expect some interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Yeah, I'm not too sure the outer wall is still an outer wall. There's no longer real subsidence going on between the two eyewalls and its instead filling in with rain. If the outer wall does indeed breakdown, then the inner wall could gain strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 FWIW, last vortex message still does designate concentric eye walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Seems a scoot to the near due north the last several frames The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 7, 2016 Author Share Posted October 7, 2016 Im so confused. How can this be a cat 4 if recon is only finding up to 85-90 knot surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. I truly hope you are right, but I defer to NHC this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. You have to remember, there are a few parts of the eastern FL coast that kind of jut out into the ocean a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The eye will really have to make a NW stretch for a while beyond some wobbles to make landfall in FL at this point. I'm getting more confident there's no landfall. The western eye wall might still make it on land in FL, we'll see what happens overnight. I really don't think it matters at this point. Eyewall or landfal there is still going to be some major damage in the coastal counties.... even up in N FL the NWS is predicting gusts up to 120mph. That is some pretty serious stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 CNN has reports of people refusing to evacuate. Probably the best possible outcome for those folks is two weeks without electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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