Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5.Notice that was the SSE quadrant. The reflectivity is weak there. Notice how intense the signature is in the NE and N however? I suspect higher winds are mixing down in the northern semicircle. It's been 1-1/2 hr since they punch the NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Two words: Frictional Convergence. If Matt lands close to the coast, will likely see rapid intensification due to just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Latest vs Previous How much time between the two readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, wxmx said: Oh, but this is clearly an ERC...many signals point to that. The 2nd wind maxima is clear on recon obs, the radar moat and the sinking air around the inner eyewall shown earlier in sat imagery are clear as the day. Right now the outer eyewall is visibly shrinking as shown on radar, and the inner eyewall is giving the good fight. Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: How much time between the two readings? 1 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said: Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today. The signal to noise ratio of the discussion here as gone off the charts. Too many people chiming in who have no idea what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Windspeed said: Freeport could sustain Ivan-like damage as this eyewall hits them head-on in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Anything is possible, but my argument is if you look at the wind speed/direction at 200mb to 700mb on the 12z GFS, there has clearly been some light pockets of wind shear from the southwest to west as the trough out west amplifies. This coupled with the storm nearing the CONUS and a slightly drier airmass, may have halted the strengthening we saw last night. The spiraled bands on IR and visible satellite/inhibited outflow on the west side, had the look of a storm undergoing some minor shear or dry air issues. I have seen many healthy canes undergo ERC's and their overall look on IR didn't change other than the eyewall itself and perhaps a slight warming of the CDO. That said, it's negligent as things are improving quickly on satellite tonight. Outflow is much better and the CDO is taking off again. Wouldn't be shocked to see another intensification period over the next 12 hours. I agree with that. I commented a couple of pages ago that the shear has been gradually increasing. It's still not at unfavorable levels, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 There's actually a ton of lightning in inner eyewall right now. What does this suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: There's actually a ton of lightning in inner eyewall right now. What does this suggest? Anything. It's been hashed over many times that lightning in an eye wall can mean basically anything...but basing off of current obs/radar, appears to mean it's strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving. The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Top buoys nearby hitting 59kt gusts, which is about 68mph http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 18z GFS is a bit right...no Cape Canaveral landfall this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Outer eye wall looks to be catching the inner eye wall as the inner eye wall tightens up. Looks like they are merging. Lots of lightning around the COC, many factors point to a strengthening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Freeport could sustain Ivan-like damage as this eyewall hits them head-on in the next hour. This weather station is at the end of the peninsula - should get the eyewall and eye. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wendy said: This weather station is at the end of the peninsula - should get the eyewall and eye. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 Gusts to about 70mph there as of 2100 UTC (5pm EDT). I wonder if it's gone offline though - no updates and it's supposed to be every 10min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Wobbling westward on radar, might be enough for the eye proper to miss Freeport. Still getting eyewall winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 IMHO the fact the 18Z GFS no longer has a landfall is a bit telling. If the eyewall can stay offshore that will significant reduce the impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Just a note on motion and path; From experience, the actual motion and direction of tropical systems can be quite deceiving. The rotation of the system can create illusion and also the distortion caused by the projection of the map that is being used can be very deceiving. What you think is north may not be actual north and could in fact be a curved line due to the map projection. Especially with concentric eyewalls. The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Last few frames definitely show an almost due westward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Gusts to about 70mph there as of 2100 UTC (5pm EDT). I wonder if it's gone offline though - no updates and it's supposed to be every 10min. You get 10 min intervals, but I think the data dumps once an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Mello said: Especially with concentric eyewalls. The inner eye is going to wobble within the outer eye causing the appearance of a change in movement. Right. Thanks, thats even more to the point with this system. It looks like it even might miss a direct hit on Freeport with a wobble just now. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Eye looks about 3/4 closed now with thunderstorms. ADT now stopped dropping. Satcon is now rising also. Structure could be setting up for RI right before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just to clarify, you won't see updates from Settlement Point (the place being discussed above) every 10 minutes, but once an hour, usually about 10-15 mins after top of the hour. The 10 min updates are in the hourly reports (look down the page). A new hourly and the previous six 10 minute reports should be on line soon. (for 22z). The hourly report is (edit) top of the hour (offshore buoys are often 10 mins to the hour) and then you see the six earlier 10-min reports, e.g. the 22z report will also have 2110z to 2150z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....It's probably opposite.....the long haul they want excuses to raise rates.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 if the hrrr is to be believed we will see some wicked weather in Florida in 6 hours or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution .... Been out of the loop all day - what solution is this? Anything that keeps us out of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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