Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Holy crap... Is that gusts or sustained? Sustained just above the boundary layer. The NW pass in twenty minutes should be pretty telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Ensembles way left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Recon is keeping it tight due to Venezuelan airspace. Can't wait to see the NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Sustained just above the boundary layer. The NW pass in twenty minutes should be pretty telling. Probably even stronger basing off of radar and satellite... But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well...here we go...eye closing and recon going in for another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 NHC pretty much gave us the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Getting even clearer now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Classic look for a major hurricane. Can't wait for the GOES-R Era in a few years. It'll be better than watching the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Massive beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 957.5 Latest pass thru the eye on recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: 957.5 Latest pass thru the eye on recon Wow, at this point I think NHC is baffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 May have missed the absolute eye 22 knots on the 957 mb reading. We'll see what the sonde says since this is a higher-altitude mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 956.7 mb (~ 28.25 inHg)-From 328° at 36 knots (From the NNW at ~ 41.4 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 WOW AND the GFS is going back to the sandy solution. Absolutely insane!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well we clearly still suck at intensity forecasting. This also was not modeled this early. The vortex must be in perfect placement/position right now versus any potential negative southwesterly shear. Perhaps something to watch for over night, but right now this is bombs away.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Surprised Josh isn't tweeting or posting about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 New recon mission started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12z Euro and Ukmet are currently west of their previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12z Euro has no upper low to the south of the high at 120hrs, should allow the ridge to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Euro has Mathew over the Central Bahamas day 7. Looks close to the HWRF track so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 At day 6 Euro is similar to 0z, but there's significant changes in the steering pattern, by day 7 the Gulf ridge builds much strongly, and blocks Matthew and will probably push it towards FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 The Ukmet plows thru all the Bahamas, but in this case is the Bermuda ridge the one that builds strongly by Day 6, implies at least a continued NW track until LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looks like 955.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looks like it might try to escape east on the 12z ECMWF by 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 50 minutes ago, Windspeed said: This also was not modeled this early. The vortex must be in perfect placement/position right now versus any potential negative southwesterly shear. Perhaps something to watch for over night, but right now this is bombs away. Reminds me of the night before Katrina , where it exploded over bath water in the gulf...and went up to like 160mph sustained....before weakening again, just before landfall. Not sure on exacts, but it went from like Cat 2 to Cat 5 overnight. with this one, we've still got like 7 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Looks like it might try to escape east on the 12z ECMWF by 192 hours. Nope, still virtually stalled over the Bahamas at 228 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like it might try to escape east on the 12z ECMWF by 192 hours. Tries, but the Gulf ridge responds by strengthening even more...still drifting NE by day 9, but almost under the ridge's grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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