PTC Matthew

[Windspeed]

If there is little to no "spiraling" to the banding, then you have two concentric rings of convection competing for the same energy between them....and I see very little interaction (spiral bands into the inner EW) to conclude that we don't have the at least the beginnings of an EWRC....IMO...

I understand that, but the process can take sometimes a 12-24 hr period to evolve, we can't assume intensification will cease. It's a fluid and hard to predict process that sometimes even fails.

[bigtenfan]

On 10/5/2016 at 9:15 AM, SN_Lover said:

Obvious shift West. models are trying to find a middle ground from the extreme solution before. 

Maybe it is my imagination but looking at the radar it looks to be going NNW to even N at times instead of NW. Is anybody else seeing that?

[LakeEffectKing]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I understand that, but the process can take sometimes a 12-24 hr period to evolve, we can't assume intensification will cease. It's a fluid and hard to predict process that sometimes even fails.

Absolutely agree with everything you just stated....

[RedSpot]

Quote

....based on the current depiction of the eastern half of Matthew on radar, I think Matthew will make a fairly pronounced westward turn/wobble here in the next hour or so...for a short time....

How are you making that assessment based off of the eastern half? 

[wxmx]

6 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Maybe it is my imagination but looking at the radar it looks to be going NNW to even N at times instead of NW. Is anybody else seeing that?

Follow the outer eyewall...the inner one will probably wobble a little too much

[LakeEffectKing]

Just now, RedSpot said:

How are you making that assessment based off of the eastern half? 

...the bit of "bulging" in the outer band toward the west in the last hour.....the inner circulation should follow suit...

[SnowGoose69]

It's going to come down to whether it wants to wobble ashore or offshore when it finally gets within 20-30 miles.  Most storms tend to want to deviate right which in this case would mean it misses, but I've seen some that deviate onshore earlier than expected or to the left too 

[wxmx]

Shear has increased some according to CIMSS shear analysis...now is 15-20 kts around Matthew.

[bigtenfan]

5 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Follow the outer eyewall...the inner one will probably wobble a little too much

Thank you

[PaEasternWX]

Just now, wxmx said:

Shear has increased some according to CIMSS shear analysis...now is 15-20 kts around Matthew.

15 knots should not be that hurtful. Nicole is currently in 20 knots and it managed to strengthen into a Hurricane. Plus I'm fairly sure Matthew was in 15-20 knot shear when it explosively intensified into a Category 5 Hurricane.

[hazwoper]

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Shear has increased some according to CIMSS shear analysis...now is 15-20 kts around Matthew.

I was wondering about this when I noticed the reduction in the NW cloud tops.

[wxmx]

6 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said:

15 knots should not be that hurtful. Nicole is currently in 20 knots and it managed to strengthen into a Hurricane. Plus I'm fairly sure Matthew was in 15-20 knot shear when it explosively intensified into a Category 5 Hurricane.

Yes, it's the trend that I'm noting, plus the ERC. Some of the most dramatic weakenings have happened because of the synchronized combination of both.

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Shear has increased some according to CIMSS shear analysis...now is 15-20 kts around Matthew.

Isn't that shear SWly?

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

Yes, it's the trend that I'm noting, plus the ERC. Some of the most dramatic weakenings have happened because of the synchronized combination of both.

Well it would certainly spare Florida the worst if that did happen but I would have to say that is extremely unlikely at this point.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Well it would certainly spare Florida the worst if that did happen but I would have to say that is extremely unlikely at this point.

If it really does continue the wobbles into a more easterly track and the eye stays 40-50 miles offshore, the impact to FL won't be that bad (damaging but not devastating). It looks pretty likely now the eye will cross Grand Bahama, which is east of the NHC track. It will have to compensate back west soon to get back on the track. 

[wxmx]

Double wind maxima noted on recon.

 

Quote

URNT15 KWBC 061913
NOAA3 3014A MATTHEW            HDOB 08 20161006
190330 2502N 07903W 6946 03093 9926 +110 +096 303041 042 036 000 00
190400 2504N 07902W 6944 03092 9919 +111 //// 304046 049 037 001 01
190430 2506N 07900W 6940 03092 9915 +110 +110 302046 048 038 001 00
190500 2507N 07859W 6945 03081 9907 +113 +104 300046 048 039 000 00
190530 2509N 07857W 6931 03093 9900 +116 +105 303042 042 035 001 00
190600 2511N 07856W 6941 03077 9890 +118 +114 307043 044 038 002 00
190630 2512N 07854W 6947 03063 9882 +117 //// 309044 044 042 013 01
190700 2514N 07853W 6961 03041 9878 +118 //// 301043 045 044 010 01
190730 2515N 07851W 6958 03039 9870 +120 //// 301049 050 049 007 01
190800 2517N 07850W 6957 03034 9861 +120 +116 301054 056 052 010 00
190830 2519N 07848W 6969 03014 9851 +124 +114 294055 060 056 027 00
190900 2520N 07847W 6945 03026 9832 +124 //// 315044 046 058 019 01
190930 2522N 07845W 6983 02977 9816 +134 +132 311041 046 055 005 00
191000 2524N 07844W 6967 02992 9809 +133 +129 309048 049 049 004 00
191030 2525N 07842W 6953 03002 9800 +138 +123 306050 052 048 001 00
191100 2527N 07840W 6958 02986 9782 +146 +115 303052 054 047 000 00
191130 2528N 07839W 6966 02968 9786 +135 +114 303051 052 044 000 00
191200 2530N 07837W 6968 02954 9774 +134 +118 305055 056 043 000 00
191230 2532N 07836W 6968 02943 9761 +135 +117 299057 058 044 001 00
191300 2533N 07834W 6968 02929 9742 +138 +116 302060 062 046 000 00

 

[PSLwx]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it really does continue the wobbles into a more easterly track and the eye stays 40-50 miles offshore, the impact to FL won't be that bad (damaging but not devastating). It looks pretty likely now the eye will cross Grand Bahama, which is east of the NHC track. It will have to compensate back west soon to get back on the track. 

For those of us in Port St. Lucie (27.3N 80.3W) this is a HUGE "if it really does continue"; West End is 79.0W.  The 5 am NHC track had it at 27.2N 79.9W at 06Z tomorrow.

[hazwoper]

936 pressure

[allgame830]

Just now, hazwoper said:

936 pressure

uh oh... he's not done yet!

[hlcater]

936.0 mb on latest recon pass. SFMR of ~110kts and a double eyewall noted. 100% ERC now. Question is, how much does it weaken, and how long it takes to complete, or if it completes at all. If there weren't an ERC going on id wager this storm would be a whole different beast. I doubt it's able to completely finish the ERC but despite the deepening noted, winds have not increased with it, in fact it appears they may have slightly decreased even. There's also the possibility that the ERC fails, it's slight, but can't be written off.

[NJwx85]

Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said:

936.0 mb on latest recon pass. SFMR of ~110kts and a double eyewall noted. 100% ERC now. Question is, how much does it weaken, and how long it takes to complete, or if it completes at all. If there weren't an ERC going on id wager this storm would be a whole different beast. I doubt it's able to completely finish the ERC but despite the deepening noted, winds have not increased with it, in fact it appears they may have slightly decreased even.

It completed the last one just Southwest of Haiti and took around 18 hours or so to do so, but that doesn't necessarily mean the same thing is likely to happen this time.

[NJwx85]

Didn't see the 12z run, but it looks to me like a consensus for landfall somewhere near Daytona Beach. If the center stayed offshore that long, it would certainly increase the chances of completing the ERC, but would also be moving into cooler waters.

 

[hazwoper]

So, with that recon, this will be updated to a Cat 3, yes?  126 mph surface winds

[wxmx]

Quote

M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles)

 

[hlcater]

Can someone give me a good sat link? The one I've been using hasn't updated since 18:15z or 1:15 cental over 1 and a half hours ago. Thanks in advance.

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Can someone give me a good sat link? The one I've been using hasn't updated since 18:15z or 1:15 cental over 1 and a half hours ago. Thanks in advance.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Can someone give me a good sat link? The one I've been using hasn't updated since 18:15z or 1:15 cental over 1 and a half hours ago. Thanks in advance.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

Matthew headed nnw per radar. 

The inner eye appears to be, but the outer eye seems to have a more westerly direction. That is just me eyeballing it though.

[weatherdude888]

What potential role could the Fujiwarha effect play in to the track modeling (are the models even programmed to account for this possibility).

Based on what I've read, interaction appear to start at about ~900 miles between the systems.  Over the next few days, both Matthew & Nicole will be at or closer to that value, could a possible interaction be disturbing or altering the track as depicted, or a track on the future?

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

So, with that recon, this will be updated to a Cat 3, yes?  126 mph surface winds

Doubtful they will drop it by that much.  Would think they would take a more conservative approach to any weakening and wait to see what data looks like later.