PTC Matthew

[Santa Clause]

Definitely looks like ERC getting ready to fire up here.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think I heard 1989 and some time in the late 70s were the othet two and I don't think either was because of a hurricane because I don't recall major hurricanes hitting that area in either of those periods 

It closed in 1999 for Hurricanes Floyd & Frances, 2004 for Jeanne, and briefly evacuated on 9/11.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/06/walt-disney-world-closes-for-just-4th-time-ever-as-hurricane-matthew-nears.html

[beanskip]

Ought to be some sort of board rule that you have to see three consecutive radar frames or 20 minutes of radar or something like that before a directional "trend" is claimed.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

If it's truly and ERC you would see any further intensification hold off.

 

Yea that I understand but would it have anytime prior to reaching the Florida coast to strength... that is my question or is that uncertain at this point?

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

I really hope this is sarcasm, but it probably isn't. This means the most dangerous aspect (the surge) is likely to get worse.

Can you explain how so if you don't mind?

[wxmx]

Timing and forecasts on ERCs are uncertain. It looks like a rather large outer eyewall, it would take it's sweet time to contract, if it ever does. We'll know better in 4-6 hours.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Ought to be some sort of board rule that you have to see three consecutive radar frames or 20 minutes of radar or something like that before a directional "trend" is claimed.

Definitely agreed with you, the amount of people crapping over wobbles the past few days is insane. Use the scientific method people.

[NaoPos]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Can you explain how so if you don't mind?

Broader area of higher wind maxima. Eyewall usually.  

[LakeEffectKing]

....based on the current depiction of the eastern half of Matthew on radar, I think Matthew will make a fairly pronounced westward turn/wobble here in the next hour or so...for a short time....

[hlcater]

That outer eyewall is huge though, it would contract I assume. It's also fully closed now so it's more evident there is an ERC occurring. The only thing I fail to understand is why is it 65nm across.

[OSUmetstud]

Any word on recon timing?

[wxmx]

6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

That outer eyewall is huge though, it would contract I assume. It's also fully closed now so it's more evident there is an ERC occurring. The only thing I fail to understand is why is it 65nm across.

Typhoon Winnie had a 120nm diameter eyewall. Taiwan could fit inside

[jm1220]

Looking at Miami-based radar, the eye has definitely been wobbling north in the past few frames. At this rate it might clip the west end of Grand Bahama Island. That would be awful news for them, but better news for a FL landfall anywhere. 

[Scuddz]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Any word on recon timing?

passing southward over the everglades now, pretty much due west of Miami

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

That outer eyewall is huge though, it would contract I assume. It's also fully closed now so it's more evident there is an ERC occurring. The only thing I fail to understand is why is it 65nm across.

also wouldn't this open the door for a more powerful Hurricane once the process is finished... we still have 18 or so hours until a possible landfall or could be longer if it happens further up the coast.

[CoastalWx]

For those looking at it from Miami radar, the tilts about 0.5 degree have a better view of the eye and you avoid some of the noise and attenuation.

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

exposed center, low topped and messy thunderstorms on the western flank, comapred to a well defined eye and high topped thunderstorms essentially all around.  nicole's appearance has improved nicely but let's not use hyperbole

I was just talking aesthetics - outflow and symmetry.

Not strength.  Matthew is clearly stronger.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Looking at Miami-based radar, the eye has definitely been wobbling north in the past few frames. At this rate it might clip the west end of Grand Bahama Island. That would be awful news for them, but better news for a FL landfall anywhere. 

Yes i noticed that and posted on the last page i think it was.  

[Windspeed]

Ruling out any further intensification because you think you know an ERC has begun, just don't.

That outer band is going to have to do a lot of contracting and intensifying before it would cutoff/starve the primary eye. That isn't an outer eyewall yet. Just strong circular banding. The western band is clearly cranking. We need recon to confirm a sharp wind maxima surrounding the entire eye.
Later on this evening if that forms into another eyewall, it's impossible to forecast how it will evolve, especially with major land interaction within 24 hrs occurring.

[Hvward]

Lightning occurring near the eye of Matthew currently.

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

also wouldn't this open the door for a more powerful Hurricane once the process is finished... we still have 18 or so hours until a possible landfall or could be longer if it happens further up the coast.

The inner EW would need to die pretty quickly, then the outer eyewall would have a better chance of contracting quicker.....If you could pluck the center of the storm (i.e. the inner EW) out right now, the outer EW would have the best/quickest way to contract...unless you get too far north in latitude....where systems typically maintain larger eyes

[wxmx]

Matthew visible shows the effects of sinking air around the inner eyewall...classic ERC. This is an example of how visible imagery looks with concentric eyewalls:

 

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

Lightning occurring near the eye of Matthew.

Which happens quite often during the first half of the cycle of replacement...

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Matthew visible shows the effects of sinking air around the inner eyewall...classic ERC. This is an example of how visible imagery looks with concentric eyewalls:

 

Thats typhoon Amber

[OceanStWx]

A bit of a low signal to noise ratio, but maybe birds seeking refuge in the eye?

[wxmx]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Thats typhoon Amber

Yes, that's "an example of how visible imagery looks with concentric eyewalls"

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Thats typhoon Amber

It was just an example.

[LakeEffectKing]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Ruling out any further intensification because you think you know an ERC has begun, just don't.

That outer band is going to have to do a lot of contracting and intensifying before it would cutoff/starve the primary eye. That isn't an outer eyewall yet. Just strong circular banding. The western band is clearly cranking. We need recon to confirm a sharp wind maxima surrounding the entire eye.
Later on this evening if that forms into another eyewall, it's impossible to forecast how it will evolve, especially with major land interaction within 24 hrs occurring.
 

 

If there is little to no "spiraling" to the banding, then you have two concentric rings of convection competing for the same energy between them....and I see very little interaction (spiral bands into the inner EW) to conclude that we don't have the at least the beginnings of an EWRC....IMO...

[wxmx]

Compare it to Matthew:

[Roger Smith]

7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Sooo.... is this good or bad for Florida.

The situation is dire for Florida regardless of what happens in the next 3-6 hours as the core passes Freeport, none of these variations really make a lot of difference to the overall fact that a cat-4 hurricane will either make a direct landfall or scrape along the coast late tonight and all day tomorrow. The model consensus would indicate that the most likely outcome is for the eye of Matthew to be located somewhere within 30 miles of Cape Canaveral at 0800h EDT give or take 2 hours. The details on that will be important but storm surge is going to be one of the larger risks and storm surge is not as responsive to eyewall fluctuations as would be wind speeds. In other words, storm surge is almost "locked in" whatever the storm does.