PTC Matthew

[jm1220]

It's going to have to turn right not to make landfall near Melbourne at this point. It won't take much of a turn, but the expected track isn't expected to change from the present for another maybe 24 hours. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I am by no means sounding an all-clear as things keep changing by the minute, but based off of majority of 12Z data and the mesoscale models including the HRRR and also factoring in satellite motion and the fact it track East of Andros (many, myself included, we using Andros as a threshold for LF in FL), there has been a notable tick East in potential track. I know folks are going to come on now and say no you're wrong, the cone is just tightening, etc, but clearly based on where we were 12-18 hours ago, the idea of a system grazing the coast as opposed to a direct LF or even inland over FL has increased. Like I said, I am not throwing in a towel or sounding an all-clear by any means as I realize that a slight wobble or shift could mean a whole world of difference. But at THIS hour, that is what guidance appears to be showing. When your westernmost model is now your Easternmost outlier and the HRRR is correcting East, that should at least raise a red flag or two. 

[NJwx85]

I believe the last time we saw a major hurricane in this position, moving West towards FL, was Andrew. That's amazing in of itself. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I am by no means sounding an all-clear as things keep changing by the minute, but based off of majority of 12Z data and the mesoscale models including the HRRR and also factoring in satellite motion and the fact it track East of Andros (many, myself included, we using Andros as a threshold for LF in FL), there has been a notable tick East. I know folkd are going to come on now and say no you're wrong, the cone is just tightening, etc, but clearly based on where we were 12-18 hours ago, the idea of a system grazing the coast as opposed to a direct LF has increased. Like I said, I am not throwing in a towel or sounding an all-clear by any means as I realize that a slight wobble or shift could mean a whole world of difference. But at THIS hour, that is what guidance appears to be showing. When your westernmost model is now your Easternmost outlier and the HRRR is correcting East, that should at least raise a red flag or two. 

all that is not going to matter much in the end....it's still a devastating impact as it rides the coast...

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

all that is not going to matter much in the end....it's still a devastating impact as it rides the coast...

Oh I agree. Six of one, half dozen of the other. But in the discussion of actual LF in FL, there have been some changes. Anyone not seeing that is ignoring the information right in front of them. Even the NHC track ticked East a hair. Did they ever have an actual FL landfall (not the cone, their actual projected track)?

[NJwx85]

Radar starting to fill in now on KAMX. I think a lot of what's perceived to be giant moats at long range is more a product of the radar beam being too high to completely take an accurate picture. 

[olafminesaw]

[OSUmetstud]

Euro landfalls.

[janetjanet998]

it needs left wobbles or it may miss the coast , 12z gfs showed a little more left motion later today..we will see

 

 

also: nichole has got to be a  hurricane don't get why it wasn't upgraded at 11am..

[NJwx85]

The Western half of the eyewall rides up the entire coast from PBI North.

[wxeyeNH]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I am by no means sounding an all-clear as things keep changing by the minute, but based off of majority of 12Z data and the mesoscale models including the HRRR and also factoring in satellite motion and the fact it track East of Andros (many, myself included, we using Andros as a threshold for LF in FL), there has been a notable tick East in potential track. I know folks are going to come on now and say no you're wrong, the cone is just tightening, etc, but clearly based on where we were 12-18 hours ago, the idea of a system grazing the coast as opposed to a direct LF or even inland over FL has increased. Like I said, I am not throwing in a towel or sounding an all-clear by any means as I realize that a slight wobble or shift could mean a whole world of difference. But at THIS hour, that is what guidance appears to be showing. When your westernmost model is now your Easternmost outlier and the HRRR is correcting East, that should at least raise a red flag or two. 

Ralph,  interesting post.  Curious to see the Euro in a couple of minutes.  The core of destructive winds is 40 miles around the eye.  So a slight offshore run up the coast verses a run up 10 miles inland will make a difference of millions of dollars in damage.  Sure a great area will still have tropical storm winds up the coast but the core is what does the real structural type damage. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Euro makes landfall at Cape Canaveral at 12z Friday.

Yep, a tick West of last run. So maybe my East tick from 12Z is debunked lol. Could just be a wobble, who knows. Semantics at this point. Too close to call a direct LF or where at this point. Gonna come down to wobbles etc. And as someone else said, does it/will it really matter THAT much? Probably not....most of SE coast get hit hard regardless.

[mattb65]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I am by no means sounding an all-clear as things keep changing by the minute, but based off of majority of 12Z data and the mesoscale models including the HRRR and also factoring in satellite motion and the fact it track East of Andros (many, myself included, we using Andros as a threshold for LF in FL), there has been a notable tick East in potential track. I know folks are going to come on now and say no you're wrong, the cone is just tightening, etc, but clearly based on where we were 12-18 hours ago, the idea of a system grazing the coast as opposed to a direct LF or even inland over FL has increased. Like I said, I am not throwing in a towel or sounding an all-clear by any means as I realize that a slight wobble or shift could mean a whole world of difference. But at THIS hour, that is what guidance appears to be showing. When your westernmost model is now your Easternmost outlier and the HRRR is correcting East, that should at least raise a red flag or two. 

So tossing the GFS and ECMWF both of which show LF?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ralph,  interesting post.  Curious to see the Euro in a couple of minutes.  The core of destructive winds is 40 miles around the eye.  So a slight offshore run up the coast verses a run up 10 miles inland will make a difference of millions of dollars in damage.  Sure a great area will still have tropical storm winds up the coast but the core is what does the real structural type damage. 

Euro was LF and actually a tick West so my thinking is DOA. Was wishful thinking anyway :-)

[SN_Lover]

Is it me or is Matt's eye clearing out? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

So tossing the GFS and ECMWF both of which show LF?

Not in the least. However, and a serious question....are the global GFS/Euro models still of high effective guidance use at this point or shouldnt we be looking closer at the mesoscale models? I dont know, I am asking a legit question.

[hazwoper]

The NW eyewall appears to be eroding away a bit over last several frames

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

The NW eyewall appears to be eroding away a bit over last several frames

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html

Also seems to be heading more NNW rather than NW... or maybe my eyes are deceiving me...

[Windspeed]

The outer band is intensifying. It's too large to have a negative effect on the eye but this is typical of improving outer structure. If that band continues to contract, that would later form a strong enough outer wind maxima and outer eyewall eventually. Not quite in an ERC yet.

[bdgwx]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Radar starting to fill in now on KAMX. I think a lot of what's perceived to be giant moats at long range is more a product of the radar beam being too high to completely take an accurate picture. 

I don't know. That would mean on the NW side there are no hydrometers between 10-13k and on the SE side between 20-23k. There is clearly a level of horizontal symmetry to the presentation so that would imply a vertical tilt of the "moat" toward the radar site from SW to NE. That would be weird. It's a safer bet to assume the "moat" is a mostly real phenomenon.

[bobbutts]

wondering about the moat vs. erc question still. 

[Amped]

Both outer and inner eyewall look well formed on radar, neither want to quit.

[wxmx]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not in the least. However, and a serious question....are the global GFS/Euro models still of high effective guidance use at this point or shouldnt we be looking closer at the mesoscale models? I dont know, I am asking a legit question.

Have you seen NHC's discussions like this: "In the short term, the HRRR shows a mostly NW trajectory similar to the RGEM. In contrast the NAM and the ARW show a bit more western track. The official forecast is an update of the previous forecast and a consensus of the mesoscale models, very close to the TNRHP"

[wxmx]

That's a textbook ERC going on.

[e46and2]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nicole looks prettier than Matthew on satellite right now.

exposed center, low topped and messy thunderstorms on the western flank, comapred to a well defined eye and high topped thunderstorms essentially all around.  nicole's appearance has improved nicely but let's not use hyperbole

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

That's a textbook ERC going on.

I think you are correct...if the outer band contracts enough, we will see the inner EW start to fragment, I suspect..

[NavarreDon]

Some say moat, some say ERC. Any possibility Matthew is ingesting dry air?


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[allgame830]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

That's a textbook ERC going on.

will this prevent anymore strengthening prior to possible landfall or could it actually weaken Matthew for a time??

[the ghost of leroy]

I wouldnt root for an ERC here.  That would lessen the top winds but a huge area would now be potentially eyewalled.

[wxmx]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

Quote

Once the inner eyewall dissipates, the storm weakens; the central pressure increases and the maximum sustained windspeed decreases. Rapid changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones is a typical characteristic of eyewall replacement cycles.^[24] Compared to the processes involved with the formation of the secondary eyewall, the death of the inner eyewall is fairly well understood.

Some tropical cyclones with extremely large outer eyewalls do not experience the contraction of the outer eye and subsequent dissipation of the inner eye. Typhoon Winnie (1997) developed an outer eyewall with a diameter of 200 kilometres (120 mi) that did not dissipate until it reached the shoreline.^[25] The time required for the eyewall to collapse is inversely related to the diameter of the eyewall which is mostly because inward directed wind decreases asymptotically to zero with distance from the radius of maximum winds, but also due to the distance required to collapse the eyewall.^[23]