Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF never really brings the center onshore until near Jacksonville but the Western eyewall tracks along the coast from PBI North. Then the HWRF takes Matthew up the GA coast and is over Charleston by Saturday afternoon. Savannah makes it into the Western eyewall and the center likely goes right over Hilton head. Yeah but it is a HECK of alot stronger. Blows up over the GS, gets down to near 920 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Question for mets and other knowledgeable people. Models are generally showing the eye riding along/near the coast for a long distance. We've seen systems appear to tighten up as they approach land due to frictional effects. Obviously that is not really needed in this case but could the landmass have an impact on the track by "pulling" the center inland earlier than expected or, on the other end, keep it offshore? Or is there just no way to know which is more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The Palm Beach International METAR was kinda cool: Quote METAR KPBI 061653Z AUTO 03018G26KT 5SM R10L/2600VP6000FT +RA BKN023 BKN031 OVC040 28/24 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 04030/1635 RAB13 SLP046 STATION EVACUATING DUE TO HURRICANE MATTHEW P0011 T02780244 Still doesn't beat Homestead's "GONE WITH THE WIND" METAR before Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah but it is a HECK of alot stronger. Blows up over the GS, gets down to near 920 mb. Lowest it got last run was 939 mb. That's a big jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah but it is a HECK of alot stronger. Blows up over the GS, gets down to near 920 mb. What are you talking about? You can't even see what the GFS and Euro are showing for SLP because of reasons that DTK gave yesterday or the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are you talking about? You can't even see what the GFS and Euro are showing for SLP because of reasons that DTK gave yesterday or the day before. Dude, ease up on the caffeine, lol. Compare the HWRF to it's 6z run. Big drop in pressure. Who said a thing about the GFS or Euro? 12Z vs 6Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, scoresman said: Floyd and Charlie WDW closed for Floyd, 9/11, and a power outage in 2002. I was in Orlando for my honeymoon during Charley, but I don't remember it closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This isn't going to be anything like Hugo once it gets up that way. The combination of increased shear, cooler SST and land interaction will take its toll on the core by then. charleston will be in rough shape because of the flooding. latest models showing extreme rainfall amounts 10"+ that will put much of downtown underwater. it floods during a summer thunderstorm, and now with surge + excessive rainfall the impacts will be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Does anyone have a microwave image of Matthew recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: evacuation orders for places east of i-95 near Savannah, I was on the phone with my father (he is near tybee Island) and he got the call. they are being told to expect a strong surge. I've heard 8-12' expected in tybee and the other GA barrier islands. This area is hardly even affected by that kind of surge. The flooding will be incredible along the GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, LithiaWx said: I've heard 8-12' expected in tybee and the other GA barrier islands. This area is hardly even affected by that kind of surge. The flooding will be incredible along the GA coast. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153536.shtml?inundation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Question for mets and other knowledgeable people. Models are generally showing the eye riding along/near the coast for a long distance. We've seen systems appear to tighten up as they approach land due to frictional effects. Obviously that is not really needed in this case but could the landmass have an impact on the track by "pulling" the center inland earlier than expected or, on the other end, keep it offshore? Or is there just no way to know which is more likely? That's a really good question. I tried researching this a couple of days ago and it's hard to find academic literature that discusses this specifically. It seems there are 2 theories from what I could find. One is that the eyewall will constrict (and probably deform) due to friction slowing the surface winds and causing them to "bend in" more and converge producing a net inward radially force (cyclostrophic balance temporarily interrupted). The other is that the wind field may spread out (Katrina and Wilma both exhibited this behavior). It has been claimed Katrina did this because it's total kinetic energy could not dissipate as fast as the friction was slowing it down so it had to conserve angular momentum by broadening its wind field. See Reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina’s wind fields for storm surge and wave hindcasting by Powell, et. al's take regarding Katrina's behavior. Is it possible for both to happen at the same time? Regarding whether it "locks" onto land I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, adam038 said: WDW closed for Floyd, 9/11, and a power outage in 2002. I was in Orlando for my honeymoon during Charley, but I don't remember it closing. We are going to get yelled at for banter in a non banter thread http://www.themeparkinsider.com/news/response.cfm?ID=1809 Hurricane Charley's arrival on Florida's Gulf Coast prompted most central Florida theme parks to close early Friday afternoon. Disney's Animal Kingdom and Busch Gardens Tampa never opened for the day, according to park publicists. Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando closed in the early afternoon and parks hotel guests were urged to stay in their rooms. The parks previously closed for a hurricane in 1999 when Hurricane Floyd hit the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Does anyone have a microwave image of Matthew recently? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html bit of a north wobble with the latest convection blowup in the north eyewall. lightning in it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Does anyone have a microwave image of Matthew recently? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_14L/webManager/mainpage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, DopplerWx said: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html bit of a north wobble with the latest convection blowup in the north eyewall. lightning in it too. Oh, hello Nicole. You're looking rather spritely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Is GOES-E out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb weather/current weather conditions (south florida large scale loop) Definitely looks like an ERC. What are the chances it's finished by landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Is GOES-E out again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It looks like an EWRC occurring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Tater Tot said: http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb weather/current weather conditions (south florida large scale loop) Definitely looks like an ERC. What are the chances it's finished by landfall? I don't think so, that is like 50nmi in diameter, far too large to be a double eye. I would lean toward it just being banding. It could be for sure, but it looks like it's too big in diameter imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It's fairly normal for hurricanes to have moats when they get nicely into radar range. HH's will show a double maxima if an ERC is really happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 That isn't too big for an eye, 50nmi wide is possible, it will likely shrink over the next three to six hours once the inner core dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I mean, I know stronger hurricanes get moats, but that would be the biggest one I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 GFDL LF near Canaveral or a hair N of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The inner eye appears to be shrinking a tad. It's just under 12 nm via the measurement I did from radar. The outer ring is about 65 nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 NAVGEM which has led the way with the Western most track makes ZERO LF this run anywhere. Stays actually a fair distance off the coast along the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It seems to me this storm just picks up strength in terms of winds and central pressure as it's appearance deteriorates on satellite. It had colder cloud tops and better symmetry when it was in the 950's and 120mph I guess it illustrates the value of recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Recons en route, let's hope they hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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