Superstorm93 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Almost Gulf Stream territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 10 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Next AF recon looks like they are turning around? Certainly what it looks like to me. Maybe they can sub in the plane in St. Croix instead? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 14z HRRR - landfall around West Palm Beach - rides the coast northward towards Melbourne from hours 13-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 That persistent band to the NE of Mathew is rather odd looking. It's almost like a straight line tangent to the storm and it's not bending. I don't recall seeing that in any past storms. It does not appear to be effecting intensity or track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Within a range of possibilities, sure, but I was talking more West Palm than Miami. Agreed, but I'm just still not comfortable with the lack of Hurricane warning for the Miami beach area. I keep having visions of Hurricane Charley making that sudden unexpected turn to the right and catching Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda/Sanibel off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12 GFS is almost identical to 06z, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. At the start it's a bit east, but the ridge is a tad stronger and ends up in the same position as 06z after 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The outflow looks better than it did last night. Satellite is showing good upper level evacuation on all sides now. Shear is low and the maximum potential intensity and tropical cyclone heat potential indices are very favorable along the southeast FL coast. Right now I see little reason why Matthew would not at least retain the current cat 4 intensity as it approaches the coast. The eye looks like it is maybe 12-14 nm in diameter. The southwest corner of the eye is not fully developed yet per microwave imagery and radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: 12 GFS is almost identical to 06z, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. At the start it's a bit east, but the ridge is a tad stronger and ends up in the same position as 06z after 24h. By 30 hrs it's west, big hit for JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 This looks like one of the smaller Atlantic basin major tropical systems in the last 15-20 years. On the order of a Charley or Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Lovely zone forecast for Cape Canaveral: Quote Friday 100 % Precip. / 2.37 in Hurricane conditions expected. Periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 95 to 115 mph with gusts to around 145 mph becoming west and decreasing to 70 to 90 mph with gusts to around 110 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Question to all the mets.....should short range models like the HRRR be more reliable now than the GFS? HRRR shows a landfall much more south than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I don't think HRRR is a good tool to use operational for tropicals, but it's guidance like everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, farleydawg79 said: Question to all the mets.....should short range models like the HRRR be more reliable now than the GFS? HRRR shows a landfall much more south than the GFS In all honesty it's probably closer to nowcast time and tracking the movement of the eye. Unless there's a good wobble west, I think the HRRR might be a bit too far west, and the greater concern area is Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral vs. Palm Beach or anywhere south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think HRRR is a good tool to use operational for tropicals, but it's guidance like everything else. It's been wobbling around a bit with landfall point but that could just be a product of the fact the coastline shape there and the angle of approach of the storm means slight deviation is a big difference in where it comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's been wobbling around a bit with landfall point but that could just be a product of the fact the coastline shape there and the angle of approach of the storm means slight deviation is a big difference in where it comes in Even the NCAR ensemble shows a nice scattering of solutions (even though they are all ARW core). Like you say, small deviations in track end up in large deviations in landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, farleydawg79 said: Question to all the mets.....should short range models like the HRRR be more reliable now than the GFS? HRRR shows a landfall much more south than the GFS I've seen it do really well at fine tuning landfall locations within the last 12 hours of approach with east coast Atlantic storms in the past. It would be nice if Phil stopped by, he's spent a lot of time using the HRRR and could give a much better answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Lovely zone forecast for Cape Canaveral: Good Lord that is almost CAT 5 gusts! God help central FL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: In all honesty it's probably closer to nowcast time and tracking the movement of the eye. Unless there's a good wobble west, I think the HRRR might be a bit too far west, and the greater concern area is Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral vs. Palm Beach or anywhere south. If Matthew somehow misses Cap Canaveral it could continue up the coast and make landfall in N FL then follow GA and SC coastline.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 We MIGHT be seeing evidence of a partial EWR....SW eyewall is struggling, and the west portion of the inner eyewall MAY be trying to "connect" with the larger outer band....when the outer bands immediately outside the eyewall become really strong, we can have a halting of wind speed increases/pressure falls as the inner eyewall loses it's tight spin... ....just conjecture at this time....but LR radar may be indicating such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 HRRR is most likely too far S. Would need to have a bit of a left hand turn for that to happen, and I just don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, wxmx said: 12 GFS is almost identical to 06z, with landfall near Cape Canaveral. At the start it's a bit east, but the ridge is a tad stronger and ends up in the same position as 06z after 24h. Just me or does Matt basically sit over the NE coast of FLA almost stationary for about 8 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 How can we not have any planes doing recon right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 000 WTNT64 KNHC 061552 TCUAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1200 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...12 PM POSITION UPDATE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 78.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF NASSAU BAHAMAS ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, dan11295 said: HRRR is most likely too far S. Would need to have a bit of a left hand turn for that to happen, and I just don't see that. The HRRR was too far sw with the track all night, consistently taking the eye right through Andros Island, even southern Andros. I had been thinking a Florida landfall may require a track no farther north than northern Andros. It certainly can't acquire much more of a northward component if the center is going to cross the coast. I guess we'll find out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 SW shear has been slowly increasing. CIMSS analyzed shear is now around 15kts. There might be a few more hours of potential intensification, but it will probably level off soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: SW shear has been slowly increasing. CIMSS analyzed shear is now around 15kts. There might be a few more hours of potential intensification, but it will probably level off soon. SHIPS guidance has shear remaining under 10 kts for the next 24 hours. Which is a more reliable source? (genuine question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: SHIPS guidance has shear remaining under 10 kts for the next 24 hours. Which is a more reliable source? (genuine question) SHIPS derives it's forecast from the GFS model (06z in this case). CIMSS analyzed shear is relied from real satellite observations. That being said, the shear gradient is currently pretty tight, so I can see shear staying favorable a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Things are looking better for Palm Beach, but IMO, unless the track bends right in the next 12 hours or so, the Melbourne/Merritt Island/Cocoa Beach areas are still under the gun for a landfall. Drawing a straight line from the eye and extrapolating its track, it leads to just south of Melbourne, around Palm Bay. The eye looks pretty tiny, so it wouldn't take much deviation east, but where it does hit is in for a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: SHIPS derives it's forecast from the GFS model (06z in this case). CIMSS analyzed shear is relied from real satellite observations. That being said, the shear gradient is currently pretty tight, so I can see shear staying favorable a little bit longer. Ok, SW shear is generally a more favorable direction (as long as it isn't strong) for northward moving systems as it can help with poleward outflow correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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