jm1220 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I wouldn't trust the NAM, but if other models nudge east today to a scrape offshore, that's indeed very good news for FL. Much less in the way of surge, and generally cat 1 wind if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: He's always said he doesn't like island chasing for this exact reason. The career defining miss is just loltastic. Josh is an amazing guy who lives the dream most of us have as weather enthusiasts. He made an attempt to intercept. How could he have predicted a possible FL landfall when he was making his calculations on the right place to intercept. The data didn't suggest it. He made a good try at it. Can't sit here and Monday morning QB the deal. sounds like me in a way. when you miss a forecast, even by just a little bit, you get real pissed at yourself more than at anything or anyone else. he still has a lot more guts than I'd ever have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Jim Marusak said: sounds like me in a way. when you miss a forecast, even by just a little bit, you get real pissed at yourself more than at anything or anyone else. he still has a lot more guts than I'd ever have. Scott was being tongue in cheek, based on a poor post from another poster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Are you kidding me? Every media outlet I've seen is talking about the severe lashing Nassau is receiving from the NE eyewall. What is your deal. He is just trolling this thread and should be placed on a 5 post limit at this point because the majority of his points have been outlandish!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Are you kidding me? Every media outlet I've seen is talking about the severe lashing Nassau is receiving from the NE eyewall. What is your deal. Yeah - look at this tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Models are great but at this point I would take the few showing a miss with a grain of salt right now.The NAM has been East the entire time and has never shown a FL landfall iirc. The fact it continues to tick West should be plenty enough support that the NAM is/has been too far East. That model really is putrid in applications such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I wouldn't trust the NAM, but if other models nudge east today to a scrape offshore, that's indeed very good news for FL. Much less in the way of surge, and generally cat 1 wind if that's the case. I havent seen much support for a shift East. Hurricane models (gfdl hwrf) continue ticking west, NAVGEM still holding inland consistently, mesoscale wrf models lf, hrrr lf, gfs landfall, cmc landfall, nam even slowly correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On September 26, 2016 at 3:42 PM, bdgwx said: I agree. It's too early to write off any CONUS scenario including GOM entries. The EPS spread after D7 and on to D10 looks like random dart throws, but verbatim the mean is still for a GOM entry. and back through FL first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 NW eyewall appears to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Windspeed said: NW eyewall appears to be stronger. Wrapping around. Northside with easterly winds coming into Florida looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: NW eyewall appears to be stronger. Once it passes Andros, that Eyewall will be intense all the way through! Only need the SE side and the NE looks ridicolous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: 11 adv -- 940 mb 120 kts that's a CAT 4.... I am not understanding why they kept the pressure at 940 ... weren't there readings lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 That may be the worst looking 140mph storm I ever saw on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 someone needs to change the thread title we have CAT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The eye looks to pass just NE of Andros Island, that's good news IMO for a scrape and not a full landfall inland in FL. If you extrapolate out the current movement, it looks like it could still make it ashore around Melbourne/Cape Canaveral. That's where I'd be most worried about a landfall if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be the worst looking 140mph storm I ever saw on satellite. that is why reconnaissance is the only true way to measure the intensity of a storm.. cause satellite images can be deceiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be the worst looking 140mph storm I ever saw on satellite. Wet blanket Quote The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection, and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale. Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened. The initial intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data and an eyewall dropsond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 13z HRRR still makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The eye looks to pass just NE of Andros Island, that's good news IMO for a scrape and not a full landfall inland in FL. If you extrapolate out the current movement, it looks like it could still make it ashore around Melbourne/Cape Canaveral. That's where I'd be most worried about a landfall if it does happen. Would agree but even on straight NW course it would be making a beeline for the east central fla coast. Million dollar question is when exactly it turns more NNW and then N to avoid landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, weatherheels said: Any chance Matthew Landfalls as a 5? What would you guys say the odds are this landfalls sub 930 mb? 5-10%? Another 20 mph of intensity seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be the worst looking 140mph storm I ever saw on satellite. Emily didn't look so classically a Cat 4 in its Yucatan landfall either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, Morris said: 13z HRRR still makes landfall. HRRR does great in the first 12-15 hours but loses its skill after that. GFS, Euro, UK if you have good maps for it. As far as track is concerned the rest of the models are just noise right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 14z HRRR hour 11 - still on track for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That may be the worst looking 140mph storm I ever saw on satellite. You never saw Kenna at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Big implications on landfall based on the angle of attack here. A wobble left of track by as little as 15 miles right now (assuming it stays a consistent 15 miles left of NHC track through the forecast) ends up with a landfall 110 or so miles further S on the FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Big implications on landfall based on the angle of attack here. A wobble left of track by as little as 15 miles right now (assuming it stays a consistent 15 miles left of NHC track through the forecast) ends up with a landfall 110 or so miles further S on the FL coast. which I'm assuming COULD mean quite a mess in the beach areas of Dade County who are still only under a TS warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Next AF recon looks like they are turning around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, ny10019 said: which I'm assuming COULD mean quite a mess in the beach areas of Dade County who are still only under a TS warning Within a range of possibilities, sure, but I was talking more West Palm than Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Also, understand, that the trochoidal movements that we see now, will most likely occur along the coast of FL....so we could conceivably have the mean motion not make "landfall" but a few wobbles may make for many LF's....yeesh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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