Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The airport was gusting to 74 kt last hour. Yep. Airport is west side of island, Nassau and most of the high value real estate is east. That new Chinese project on the NW coast might have gotten it worse, but for Paradise Island it LOOKS like it was a nonevent, by their standards. Most of the newer $$ development is built to pretty good standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12Z WSI RPM shifted east, technically no landfall through 12z, quite close to Canaveral though. I still think a very near miss is a possibility. Will be very intersted to see what the 12Z GFDL and HWRF do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: FWIW, word I'm hearing from Nassau (where my wife has business connections) is Cat 1 conditions. Eyewall missed west. It's splitting b/w Andros and New Providence. Folks are kissing the ground as we speak. I guarantee you it isn't just Cat 1 conditions just west of the airport..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Sure, in the tongue of the ocean, but there's a lot of shelf water over the carbonate platform around there. IIRC, there's some work that shows that even at equal temps, hurricanes do better over deeper warm water, though the rationale for that isn't clear to me (it doesn't feel like you'd have upwelling issues when you have no thermocline) Felix did well in the very shallow waters east of Nicaragua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Radio station in Nassau, I was listing to, has just went off air. Nothing but static now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Has Matthew actually passed almost all the way through the Bahamas without the eye going over land? Certainly there is more water than land so I suppose its no great surprise. Still seems remarkable. Hurricanes do love the water routes as we have seen through past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Yep. Airport is west side of island, Nassau and most of the high value real estate is east. That new Chinese project on the NW coast might have gotten it worse, but for Paradise Island it LOOKS like it was a nonevent, by their standards. Most of the newer $$ development is built to pretty good standards. Silly comment considering the eye is currently just west of the island. you giving the all clear for them? should they head out and start the cleanup? cmon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, hazwoper said: Silly comment considering the eye is currently just west of the island. you giving the all clear for them? should they head out and start the cleanup? cmon man Actually, yes. The eye missed. Hopefully we'll see the same near-miss on the FL coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It's a matter of bathymetry. You're upwelling and mixing 29-30C water...it's not going to cool down much nor rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Actually, yes. The eye missed. Hopefully we'll see the same near-miss on the FL coast tonight. I'll advised advice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 They are on the right front quad i wouldn't call it a miss at all. The western part of the island is in the eyewall and the rest of the island is in the worst zone for surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Here that, Nassau...Drz1111 says you can head out and start the cleanup. Don't worry about the current 60mph sustained winds in the center of the island and the winds sustained over hurricane force in the west. All clear... Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour. not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour. not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? Likely scenario is that the power went out along with his Wifi. I imagine cell towers aren't doing too good either at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: Well also to note, we have not heard from JOSH in the past 2 hours... he was giving updates several an hour. not sure what that means, but i hope everything is OK? He is probably fine, just lost wifi in all likelihood. Let's see what happens as Matt heads towards open warm waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12Z 4KM NAM very similar to the RPM and 06Z HWRF- any landfall near Cape Canaveral or a very near miss-then up the coast barely offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Ridingtime said: Likely scenario is that the power went out along with his Wifi. I imagine cell towers aren't doing too good either at the moment. We lose contact with Josh for several days some chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 13z HRRR - Hour 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Amped said: We lose contact with Josh for several days some chases. Yeah he went through Haiyan in the Philippines. I am sure he is fine. Loss of contact is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 All lanes of I-16 from Savannah to Dublin are flowing north until further notice. No southbound access below Dublin. Per GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Starting to see the eyewall's convection wrap around the entire eyewall, at least according to long range radar out of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 But the 4KM NAM can be OK since it has a much better idea about the intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Cheeznado said: But the 4KM NAM can be OK since it has a much better idea about the intensity. ...And 4K does indeed show several hits from the western eyewall as Matthew rebounds along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Cheeznado said: But the 4KM NAM can be OK since it has a much better idea about the intensity. I'm not sure about that. The only model that might be okay, would be the HRRR since it assimilates real-time radar data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Josh is fine. I spoke with him a little while ago to confirm that the eyewall was looking like a miss. Forgot to pass along the news that it was a career defining miss - But I think he will recover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The HRRR is now the only model showing a landfall down near Jupiter- I am unsure how good this model is with tropical systems, not a great deal of past data to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Animal said: 12z nam looks to miss Florida with a hit. Great news Models are great but at this point I would take the few showing a miss with a grain of salt right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Scott747 said: Josh is fine. I spoke with him a little while ago to confirm that the eyewall was looking like a miss. Forgot to pass along the news that it was a career defining miss - But I think he will recover.... he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one. It is also extremely difficult to chase in a small island chain. He couldn't adjust his position like he could in previous chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: he'll be ok. it happens to the best of people. i understand he's only human, as I am sure most of you do to. he'll get the next one. He's always said he doesn't like island chasing for this exact reason. The career defining miss is just loltastic. Josh is an amazing guy who lives the dream most of us have as weather enthusiasts. He made an attempt to intercept. How could he have predicted a possible FL landfall when he was making his calculations on the right place to intercept. The data didn't suggest it. He made a good try at it. Can't sit here and Monday morning QB the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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