Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 936.3 mb extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Josh was down to 979, but I told him that unless there was a last minute wobble he may just miss the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowman99 said: If we AL learn something from all of this...it's always listen to LEK when it comes to hurricanes re strengthening. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk LOL...Stop! ...but thanks... I say it has about 12 more hours of deepening...give or take 4 hours...then he should stabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Morris said: 12z spaghetti shifted east away from an actual landfall. IMHO doesn't really matter ATT. He's already here or there but you know what I mean. One can only imagine what the high-end gusts are in the inner eye-wall. 170? 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, Morris said: 12z spaghetti shifted east away from an actual landfall. i WOULD SAY it tightened up. I didn't see an east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Eastern eyewall and worse winds are over the western part of Nassau now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Do you have a image with the runs... seems hard to believe it wouldn't make landfall somewhere along the Florida coastline at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 New NOAA recon mission took off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Morris said: 936.3 mb extrapolated. Which has been consistently about 3 mb lower than the dropsondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Im very familiar with Nassau. Most of the large resorts and beach hotels are on the North side..and almost all of those are EAST of the airport which is located along the north shore very near to the west end of the island. Lucky track for most of them actually. Im sure the smaller settlements on the southwest end will get pounded, but that isnt where the high dollar real estate is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Western eyewall still very weak per latest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 My hunch is that Andros is interfering ever so slightly with the western eyewall. I'm interested to see what happens when the storm clears Andros and crosses the GS, with its deep(er) warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you know what you are saying right now? Yes I agree Coastal... I was going to comment but did not want to say something stupid. However, JOSH put himself where he thought was the best place.. He is still going to experience some really intense winds probably upwards in the CAT 2 region with some CAT 3 gusts.... I do not consider that a career defining miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do you know what you are saying right now? Yeah. I lol'd at that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 new convection firing in the north eyewall http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yes I agree Coastal... I was going to comment but did not want to say something stupid. However, JOSH put himself where he thought was the best place.. He is still going to experience some really intense winds probably upwards in the CAT 2 region with some CAT 3 gusts.... I do not consider that a career defining miss! FWIW, word I'm hearing from Nassau (where my wife has business connections) is Cat 1 conditions. Eyewall missed west. It's splitting b/w Andros and New Providence. Folks are kissing the ground as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Dropsonde found 939mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12Z Nam continues to be a near miss to the coast with the eye - and deepens Nicole slightly more than more than earlier runs, which may be related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: My hunch is that Andros is interfering ever so slightly with the western eyewall. I'm interested to see what happens when the storm clears Andros and crosses the GS, with its deep(er) warm water. Pretty sure that water is close to 30C down to 100m already. Negligible difference in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Extrap 935.9mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: My hunch is that Andros is interfering ever so slightly with the western eyewall. I'm interested to see what happens when the storm clears Andros and crosses the GS, with its deep(er) warm water. Many models (whatever you want to takeaway from them) have been showing the storm strengthening more significantly when it got past Andros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 117kts SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, Hoth said: Pretty sure that water is close to 30C down to 100m already. Negligible difference in all likelihood. Sure, in the tongue of the ocean, but there's a lot of shelf water over the carbonate platform around there. IIRC, there's some work that shows that even at equal temps, hurricanes do better over deeper warm water, though the rationale for that isn't clear to me (it doesn't feel like you'd have upwelling issues when you have no thermocline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The eye could pass over the Nicholls Town area of north Andros island shortly. After that there is a whole lot of open warm water until Florida proper. likely will pass north of Bimini Islands, but its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I see no way at this point it does not landfall in FL. At the same time though I think FLL and obviously MIA are safe. I'm not even sure FLL will even see 60-65 mph winds, nevermind 74 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: FWIW, word I'm hearing from Nassau (where my wife has business connections) is Cat 1 conditions. Eyewall missed west. It's splitting b/w Andros and New Providence. Folks are kissing the ground as we speak. The airport was gusting to 74 kt last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 NHC conference call is ongoing, and no surprise to anyone here but recon has found Matthew is stronger than the last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: NHC conference call is ongoing, and no surprise to anyone here but recon has found Matthew is stronger than the last update. It is an almost certainty that Matthew is a CAT 4 at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I see no way at this point it does not landfall in FL. At the same time though I think FLL and obviously MIA are safe. I'm not even sure FLL will even see 60-65 mph winds, nevermind 74 or more. It's very possible the eyewall could just scrape, maybe be halfway onshore, or ever so slightly stay just east by a few miles. 10 miles will mean everything and that is easily a wobble N or W. Tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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