PTC Matthew

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

Reaching Cat 5 in the next day or so, should be no surprise at this point.

With the shear there I think eventually it either weakens slightly or holds steady.  Of course that better happen soon because the shear weakens within 24-30 hours 

[iceicebyebye]

10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Previous history with models (yes, some 10-15 years ago)...with TC's/TS's/H's tracking through the C. Car.....for whatever reason, time and again, the models seem(ed) to always have a bias to turning these systems too early as they reach the western most portion of the STR.  I'd look for the model consensus to start shifting westward over the next day or two...along with the official NHC track...

Yes there have been no evolution in the models for 15 years.  might you shift your picture to one of Nostradamus if this is true?

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

With the shear there I think eventually it either weakens slightly or holds steady.  Of course that better happen soon because the shear weakens within 24-30 hours 

Just like others, I was surprised it started intensifying rapidly with the shear still there.    With bath water and low shear ahead, I could only see significant strengthening the next 2 days.  Water vapor looks 'generally' favorable as well.

It's good to see a 'regular' hurricane in the Atlantic again. 

[rockchalk83]

1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

Just like others, I was surprised it started intensifying rapidly with the shear still there.    With bath water and low shear ahead, I could only see significant strengthening the next 2 days.

SW shear is expected to be at or around 20 kts for the next 48 hours. Not exactly ideal for rapid strengthening, despite the bathwater in that area. 

[jojo762]

NHC has it maintaining at 115mph for the next 72 hours. LOL..

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

SW shear is expected to be at or around 20 kts for the next 48 hours. Not exactly ideal for rapid strengthening, despite the bathwater in that area. 

 

new development ?  haven't looked at shear guidance , but all indications last night were for weakening shear after 24 hours.

[LakeEffectKing]

10 minutes ago, iceicebyebye said:

Yes there have been no evolution in the models for 15 years.  might you shift your picture to one of Nostradamus if this is true?

....well, I have my thoughts on some of the general reasons the models still exhibit deficiencies with their tracks...(ridge pumping of intensifying systems, a bias of having the steering flow being weighted too heavily on the M/U levels during intensifying storms, etc...) 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

new development ?  haven't looked at shear guidance , but all indications last night were for weakening shear after 24 hours.

This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows this shear
continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS
and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time.  This
weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane
models.  However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity
given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to
change much.  Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are
certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of
the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt
through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to
potential land interaction.  Late in the period the NHC forecast is
closest to the HWRF model.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt.  

pretty beastly

SW shear is probably the best , most favorable for a hurricane, if u think about it.  (feeding moisture in , and not disturbing flow on the eastern half)

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[NJwx85]

Eye opening

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Classic !

 

[WhiteoutWX]

The core of this thing is extremely compact, probably helped with the RI the past 24 hours.

[Windspeed]

This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterlyshear of around 20 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows this shearcontinuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPSand LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time.  Thisweakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricanemodels.  However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensitygiven that the environment around the cyclone does not appear tochange much.  Some short-term fluctuations in intensity arecertainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much ofthe guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 ktthrough 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due topotential land interaction.  Late in the period the NHC forecast isclosest to the HWRF model.

I'm a little surprised that the forecast extends southwesterly shear out another 36 hours. Of course, the shear may not remain 15 to 20 kts that entire time. I noticed that the shear and SHIPs guidance correlates with the slow down and turn NW by the hurricane. It could be that the weakness of cutoff is developing faster over the eastern Gulf and that induces more mid-level shear. The original TUTT and PV anomoly is still there but still weaker yet, so I'm just not sure at the mechanism for continued shear that long.

I will say that if you consider the current structure of Matthew, the mid-level shear is clearly a factor in the hurricane not bombing out. Very restricted upper level support in the western periphery of the system. Evident 400-300 SSW mid-level flow against a S-WSW forcing by the 700-500 mb ridge advancing the hurricane is squeezing the circulation and slightly tilting the vortex, SW to NE orientation, resulting in wide elliptical eyewall structures, open at times on the southern semicircle. The core is still fighting against that mid-level intrusion. However, all other favorable environmental factors, including 30° SSTs, even with a slightly tilted and squeezed vortex has allowed intensification to continue since yesterday. It's as if the updrafts and divergance aloft has been so excellent, the hampering mid-level at 20 kts is just weak enough to not keep Matthew in check.

We now have a major hurricane yet no cleared-out eye on satellite imagery. The temperature variances within the eye haven't yet been ideal. So a clear eye feature may come and go for the short term. Any slack in the SSW mid-level flow will likely result in Matthew rapidly expanding its coverage to the West and rapidly intensifying however.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

20KT shear would be much more of an issue if this were a Tropical Storm.   With a hurricane of over 110 MPH, it's able to absord / ignore some of these damages.  SW shear is the most favorable type. (direction)

The core staying intact is key. 

Status quo or strengthening seems certain.

[Windspeed]

SW shear is the most favorable type. (direction)

That is normally the case if the system has a northerly component of motion. Matthew is actually being pushed against that flow to the WSW right now. But either way, the core seem to be deflecting/resisting the opposing flow pretty well. In the greater scheme of things, any negative influence on the system is good if you reside in Jamaica or Cuba. That seems to be the only thing keeping this from reaching upper Cat 4, possibly Cat 5 status. If that shear relaxes at all, this may eventually hit those intensities. Of course, in 36 hrs, Matthew is likely moving NW or North, so the shear may not be a limiting factor at all. Weakening would be due to land interaction.

[wxmx]

Interestingly, the Ukmet may be the easternmost reliable global model with Matthew, but it's also the one that builds the strongest Atlantic (Bermuda) ridge after it crosses Haiti, and starts moving it to the WNW/NW at day 6 through the Bahamas.

 

[Superstorm93]

Starting to observe some outflow boundaries on the western portion of the circulation. Somehow, the core still look relatively healthy. 

I wouldn't bet on any more substantial strengthening unless shear decreases or the mid-level dry air gets out of the way. 

 

 

 

[hlcater]

New burst of strong convection around the east side of the eyewall, creating a pretty sound eyewall on all sides now.

 

[Hoth]

Title of this thread needs an update. Also, nice phase job for Maine on the GFS.

[Superstorm93]

That NOAA plane is about to run into that new convective burst in the N eyewall.

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Title of this thread needs an update. Also, nice phase job for Maine on the GFS.

930mb just offshore of Maine?? Lol GFS, I'll believe that when I see it. That pressure is probably a tad overdone

[Superstorm93]

Wow.

 

Extrapolated MSLP of 959mb. Clear 105 knot SFMR winds. 

[Superstorm93]

 

[Superstorm93]

Wow. Almost 110 knots on the NE quad. NW might be 10-15 stronger.

 

000
URNT12 KWBC 301658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL142016
A. 30/16:47:40Z
B. 13 deg 34 min N
  071 deg 12 min W
C. NA
D. 107 kt
E. 048 deg 13 nm
F. 127 deg 105 k
G. 050 deg 16 nm
I. 16 C / 2108 m
J. 21 C / 2373 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C15
N. 12345 / NA
O. .01 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WA14A MATTHEW OB 04
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 105 KT 050 / 16 NM 16:43:36Z

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Wow. Almost 110 knots on the NE quad. NW might be 10-15 stronger.

 

000
URNT12 KWBC 301658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL142016
A. 30/16:47:40Z
B. 13 deg 34 min N
  071 deg 12 min W
C. NA
D. 107 kt
E. 048 deg 13 nm
F. 127 deg 105 k
G. 050 deg 16 nm
I. 16 C / 2108 m
J. 21 C / 2373 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C15
N. 12345 / NA
O. .01 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WA14A MATTHEW OB 04
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7000 FT RADAR ALT
MAX FL WIND 105 KT 050 / 16 NM 16:43:36Z

Is that unflagged?  Jeeze.

[Superstorm93]

Dropsonde has 143 mph winds just above the surface. 

[jojo762]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Dropsonde has 143 mph winds just above the surface. 

Holy crap... Is that gusts or sustained?

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Dropsonde has 143 mph winds just above the surface. 

So far Mathew is blowing away the intensity guidance forecasts. I'm not sure how reliable any of the guidance is going to be until the intensification levels off.

[NJwx85]

Are the Hurricane models like the HWRF or the GFDL anymore useful now that we actually have a fully organized tropical cyclone?