andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:47 PM, wxmx said: It's a tug of war right now...the outer eyewall is shrinking, and the inner one is responding by getting a lot more active Expand Yep....the proximity of the inner structure to the outer one has gotten close enough for there to be some transport of energy into the inner... IOW, lots of spirals inward are much better for the inner structure than lots of concentric bands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:50 PM, allgame830 said: when is RECON heading back in there to check this out? Expand Plan of the day was to have one on its way back now and another scheduled for 2330z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:51 PM, allgame830 said: SORRY... but it is definitely not running parallel.. not even close. been wobbling back and forth from NW to NNW Expand If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:55 PM, audioguy3107 said: If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall. Expand OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE. Look at the MIAMI radar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 still 936 pressure surface winds surprising lower than last pass. wait to see the dropsonde data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:55 PM, audioguy3107 said: If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall.Noted. Now let's see if the trend continues for several more hours or if the primary eyewall begins getting pulled with mass displacement more NW in the same direction that clearly the western outer band motion is currently moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 briefing from the nws in jackonsville. very rare to see language like this http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:55 PM, audioguy3107 said: If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall. Expand A ruler? It's clearly moving NW right now and would LF in Florida if it stays this path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:58 PM, allgame830 said: OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE. Look at the MIAMI radar.... Expand Ok ok sorry, almost parallel (to the upper east coast i.e. Melbourne, Daytona Beach, not the Miami area). Definitely NNW though. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:52 PM, HKY_WX said: Not sure this is any type of eyewall replacement cycle, but more of a reorganization. The hurricane has clearly been under some slight shear/dry air and the CDO was lopsided. The latest satellite/radar shows it working out the dry air and improving organization. Perhaps some of the islands have played an impact as well. Also these posts claiming every wobble north means no landfall are clueless. The storm is right on track. Expand Oh, but this is clearly an ERC...many signals point to that. The 2nd wind maxima is clear on recon obs, the radar moat and the sinking air around the inner eyewall shown earlier in sat imagery are clear as the day. Right now the outer eyewall is visibly shrinking as shown on radar, and the inner eyewall is giving the good fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:58 PM, allgame830 said: OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE. Look at the MIAMI radar.... Expand You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:55 PM, audioguy3107 said: If you load the most recent NHC satellite loop and put a ruler along the eyes path since the nassau area and follow it on its current heading, it would not make landfall. Expand You need to look at the modeled path. If you did, you would see that a more NW track is being modeled later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:53 PM, LakeEffectKing said: Yep....the proximity of the inner structure to the outer one has gotten close enough for there to be some transport of energy into the inner... IOW, lots of spirals inward are much better for the inner structure than lots of concentric bands... Expand Should be interesting to see what happens when it completes it's cycle during the Diurnal max tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 and as modeled on the HRRR the eye is in fact now moving more WNW. It may in fact miss Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 8:58 PM, allgame830 said: OK so your soooo sure of that... but your claim that it is running parallel to the coast is FALSE. Look at the MIAMI radar.... Expand Looks like it's moving NW to me. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Fantastic displays of the inner working physics of TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Jogs in path are consistent with solar-lunar tidal forces which could produce 25-50 nm deviations from a smooth path. Sunset is around 23z and moonset 04z with the moon almost at its transit (overhead or high to south). Hence the net eastward pull on Matthew peaked around two hours ago, the net westward pull comes around 8-10 hours from now, or just as Matthew is approaching Florida. That will correct the deviation from the NW track but I don't expect any heading less than 310 deg, my prediction is a semi-landfall at Cape Canaveral with the eye just about all over land briefly then back into the coastal waters due to the shape of the coastline with the western half of the eye on land all the way to Atlantic Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just a couple quality of life tips. First, if you stare at a radar loop of a tropical cyclone long enough you'll start hallucinating. They rarely move in a straight line, often it's more like stair steps. Or at least a bumpy road. When in doubt rely on fixes from recon. Also, winds are strongest in the NE quadrant. A NW to SE pass usually won't sample the strongest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Caleb Elliott chasing Matthew in Brevard Co. FL http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Matthew really starting to look scary on infrared. With the recent northward movement a lot of the SE FL beach communities much be breathing a sigh of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 If those winds make it down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 9:15 PM, Tibet said: If those winds make it down... Expand If they make it down, Cat 5 on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Damage to the flagler beach pier already being reported... there is a web cam there, could be interesting to watch later. http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/flagler-beach-pier-florida_61837/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 9:04 PM, pawatch said: Looks like it's moving NW to me. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Expand That is the point that I was making. Current movement is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Latest Quote M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)M. Inner Eye Diameter: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles)M. Outer Eye Diameter: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) Expand vs Previous Quote M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)M. Inner Eye Diameter: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)M. Outer Eye Diameter: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 On 10/6/2016 at 9:17 PM, Morris said: Winds weaker at the surface on this pass. Only supporting cat 3, but just a drop above the surface it's almost cat 5. Expand Keep in mind this fix was thru the weakest part of the eyewall, so it isn't really a good indication of the storms max potential winds attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It's still certainly on track for east central/north east Florida, in my eyes, as well as the NHC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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