bobbutts Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 6:34 PM, TomAtkins said: So South Carolina or Georgia in these models? Expand I don't think extreme surge is really happening with this storm. I am sure there are local areas that will be flooded regardless. Do not rely on me please though, check your local forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew beginning to look very healthy again especially in the last few frames. I would not hesitate to say an eye will be popping out very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 ....I can't see one reason why this won't reach at least 150mph max sustained later tonight or tomorrow....IMO, this has a 50/50 chance of getting back to Cat. 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Recon is on the way in, currently near Grand Bahama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looks like it's bombs away, eye about to reopen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:34 PM, LakeEffectKing said: ....I can't see one reason why this won't reach at least 150mph max sustained later tonight or tomorrow....IMO, this has a 50/50 chance of getting back to Cat. 5... Expand This. CDO structure/inner core convection is recovering rapidly and SSTs are 30C along the rest of the track (about 1-2C above normal) with ideal shear/upper level outflow conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Recon is on the way in, currently near Grand Bahama. Expand Interested to see what they find in the eastern eye wall, as it looks vicious right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 More hot towers going up in the eyewall. A good sign of intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:39 PM, csnavywx said: More hot towers going up in the eyewall. A good sign of intensification. Expand Earlier on the TWC they were saying that the HH reported a lot of lightning in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:38 PM, csnavywx said: This. CDO structure/inner core convection is recovering rapidly and SSTs are 30C along the rest of the track (about 1-2C above normal) with ideal shear/upper level outflow conditions. Expand And little concerns of dry air...over water or the SE...Nocturnal cooling of cloud tops....he should flex tonight.... ....the ONLY uncertainty is the inner core dynamics (secondary/concentric eyewalls).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:37 PM, NJwx85 said: Looks like it's bombs away, eye about to reopen. It has technically. This is why you look at both IR and Visible because you would clearly be able to see that it is shaded over currently by a thunderstorm anvil associated with that intense blow up on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Bombing and growing in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew is rebuilding his upper structures at this time....as he does so, in a vigorous fashion, you'll see, from time to time, the eye disappear, as new hot towers explode above the existing canopy...which allows for T-storm anvils to obscure the eye briefly....but once those "towers" circle the center, the anvils either flow "out" or evaporate and sink into the center...clearing it out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 7:53 PM, LakeEffectKing said: Matthew is rebuilding his upper structures at this time....as he does so, in a vigorous fashion, you'll see, from time to time, the eye disappear, as new hot towers explode above the existing canopy...which allows for T-storm anvils to obscure the eye briefly....but once those "towers" circle the center, the anvils either flow "out" or evaporate and sink into the center...clearing it out.... Expand Thanks for the knowledgeable information you have been posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The satellite shots show just about everything improving with this storm over the last 4-6 hours. Forecast track is looking to take this very close to Freeport and Nassau. When was the last time a Cat 4 rolled across those islands? Matthew is getting his act together for what looks to be a historic run at the Central Bahamas. I daresay this storm is going to be historic there. I dont remember a strong Cat 4 or 5 in this region in a very long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Eyewall appears to be looking better on radar, w/very strong convection in E side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 FWIW the latest runs of the WSI RPM have shifted well east, no coastal wind impact of note....This is still in line with the overall hurricane model spaghetti consensus. This still could be just a big tease..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Satellite/Lightning loop of Matthew over past 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Extremely concerned for Nassau and surrounding islands. Surge is extremely life threatening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:05 PM, Cheeznado said: FWIW the latest runs of the WSI RPM have shifted well east, no coastal wind impact of note....This is still in line with the overall hurricane model spaghetti consensus. This still could be just a big tease..... Expand How much is this model actually worth in the tropics though? A lot of the spaghetti models are generally useless when it comes to actual operational forecasts. The EPS/GEFS are certainly threatening to the coast in the majority of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:05 PM, Cheeznado said: FWIW the latest runs of the WSI RPM have shifted well east, no coastal wind impact of note....This is still in line with the overall hurricane model spaghetti consensus. This still could be just a big tease..... Expand Where can that be viewed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:08 PM, pcbjr said: Where can that be viewed? Expand You can't publically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I know all you guys are commenting on Matthew really looking better but I am going to disagree a bit. CDO is currently expanding which is an indication of intensification. Stepping back and looking at the whole storm the outflow channels they just don't look great. Air has to evacuate. CDO has to come around to the SW side of the eye. As anyone ever noticed that sometimes after a storm goes through RI and then passes over a land mass that it never gets its act together again to re achieve its former self? Low wind shear, warm sea temps should all help the storm to re-intensify but sometimes they just don't. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 12 hours regarding intensity. Recon will pass through eye very shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:03 PM, DeltaPilot said: The satellite shots show just about everything improving with this storm over the last 4-6 hours. Forecast track is looking to take this very close to Freeport and Nassau. When was the last time a Cat 4 rolled across those islands? Matthew is getting his act together for what looks to be a historic run at the Central Bahamas. I daresay this storm is going to be historic there. I dont remember a strong Cat 4 or 5 in this region in a very long time! Expand https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ If I didn't screw this up, there has been exactly one Cat 4 or 5 in the central Bahamas in the last 80 years - Andrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I know all you guys are commenting on Matthew really looking better but I am going to disagree a bit. CDO is currently expanding which is an indication of intensification. Stepping back and looking at the whole storm the outflow channels they just don't look great. Air has to evacuate. CDO has to come around to the SW side of the eye. As anyone ever noticed that sometimes after a storm goes through RI and then passes over a land mass that it never gets its act together again to re achieve its former self? Low wind shear, warm sea temps should all help the storm to re-intensify but sometimes they just don't. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 12 hours regarding intensity. Recon will pass through eye very shortly Expand A storm that is intensifying often looks "worse" than when it reaches steady state conditions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I know all you guys are commenting on Matthew really looking better but I am going to disagree a bit. CDO is currently expanding which is an indication of intensification. Stepping back and looking at the whole storm the outflow channels they just don't look great. Air has to evacuate. CDO has to come around to the SW side of the eye. As anyone ever noticed that sometimes after a storm goes through RI and then passes over a land mass that it never gets its act together again to re achieve its former self? Low wind shear, warm sea temps should all help the storm to re-intensify but sometimes they just don't. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 12 hours regarding intensity. Recon will pass through eye very shortly Expand Good post. Very few storms go back to strong 4 or five after being disrupted by land to the extent Matthew has been. Not saying it cannot happen, but I think it is not the most likely scenario, and the intensity models agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I know all you guys are commenting on Matthew really looking better but I am going to disagree a bit. CDO is currently expanding which is an indication of intensification. Stepping back and looking at the whole storm the outflow channels they just don't look great. Air has to evacuate. CDO has to come around to the SW side of the eye. As anyone ever noticed that sometimes after a storm goes through RI and then passes over a land mass that it never gets its act together again to re achieve its former self? Low wind shear, warm sea temps should all help the storm to re-intensify but sometimes they just don't. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 12 hours regarding intensity. Recon will pass through eye very shortly Expand Regardless of the past history of a system, it is the current and future conditions that Matthew will have for the next 2 days that will drive him back up in intensity.... ...yes, a previous landfall will disrupt the COC's at different levels, but if favorable conditions are there for strengthening, then he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Pressure appears to be down to ~959mb on this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:17 PM, Cheeznado said: Good post. Very few storms go back to strong 4 or five after being disrupted by land to the extent Matthew has been. Not saying it cannot happen, but I think it is not the most likely scenario, and the intensity models agree. Expand While certainly there are times when a storm goes over land it takes "quite awhile" to re-establish the structure to intensify back to a previous status, I think the fact that very few storms do so (as you have correctly stated) is more a function of more land interaction, dryer air chances go up when near land for "awhile"...etc. The fact is, we have an intact MH in bathwater, with little shear and little dry air concerns...and by most/all accounts, an intact inner core...... ....Matthew will get stronger tonight.....much stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 8:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I know all you guys are commenting on Matthew really looking better but I am going to disagree a bit. CDO is currently expanding which is an indication of intensification. Stepping back and looking at the whole storm the outflow channels they just don't look great. Air has to evacuate. CDO has to come around to the SW side of the eye. As anyone ever noticed that sometimes after a storm goes through RI and then passes over a land mass that it never gets its act together again to re achieve its former self? Low wind shear, warm sea temps should all help the storm to re-intensify but sometimes they just don't. It will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 12 hours regarding intensity. Recon will pass through eye very shortly Expand Strongly disagree with this post. There are excellent outflow channels available for Matthew - look at the shear map. The reason it doesn't jump out on the satellite is that Matthew's deep convection was disrupted by passing over Cuba. But the phenomenon you describe - where the core gets disrupted and deep convection gets displaced from the center - is obviously not what happened here. Quite the opposite. As the cirrus from the deep convection near the center spreads, this will quickly look like a normal hurricane again. TL; DR: This is not Hurricane Georges, and using folk wisdom about how land interaction always disrupts the inner core of a TC doesn't make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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