DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 gfs a little slower thru 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yeah it's south. maybe not that far though. On 10/5/2016 at 3:39 AM, Tibet said: Not looking good for Miami by 36hrs... Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hurricane warning for my backyard . The schools are closed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS appears destined for S FL landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z GFS is a touch south vs 18z 42 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Starting to get real worried with this run... given how the trough is sharper... ridge a little weaker... could bring the mid atlantic back into play :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:31 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Better safe then sorry policy, what I AM confused by is the lack of major costal evacs in Florida. Expand You and me both - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 H 'Cane warnings up and down the Fla coast and no trop storm warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:42 AM, Windspeed said: 0z GFS is a touch south vs 18z 42 hrs out. Expand I was just going to ask if it was my imagination ... looks a bit west at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 extremely close to a fl landfall at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:45 AM, pcbjr said: H 'Cane warnings up and down the Fla coast and no trop storm warnings? Expand Trop Storm warning in FL * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jesus. You want a full-on zika outbreak in Palm Beach, then this is one way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 OK, sry to ask again. Do all pertinent models update at 00z and 12z? I'm just trying to understand. Again, if I should be posting this somewhere else, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 My God, raking the entire E FL coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:47 AM, stockmanjr said: Trop Storm warning in FL * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay Expand No - north and central is my point; those warnings are way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Close to a worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jesus Christ, if this comes to pass they need to start evacuations right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:48 AM, LikesNaturesFury said: OK, sry to ask again. Do all pertinent models update at 00z and 12z? I'm just trying to understand. Again, if I should be posting this somewhere else, please let me know. Expand Depends upon the model. The GFS and NAM update around 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. The 00z and 12z are generally considered to be more reliable because (as I understand it) they consume more input data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:43 AM, Tibet said: Starting to get real worried with this run... given how the trough is sharper... ridge a little weaker... could bring the mid atlantic back into play :/ Expand not seeing it. If anything, trough is broader and not as sharp. 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Matthew would like to pay a visit to the entire FL east coast as it moves north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:48 AM, LikesNaturesFury said: OK, sry to ask again. Do all pertinent models update at 00z and 12z? I'm just trying to understand. Again, if I should be posting this somewhere else, please let me know. Expand All models update at 00Z and 12Z, some models update at 6Z and 18Z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 As we get closer to this "event" I think there will be a good number of weenies realizing just how bad this is shaping up to be... not to fear monger but watching these frames is giving me chills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 My friends uncle in Fort Lauderdale just said that there putting the electric road signs up in preparation for contraflow orders. Also the majority of stores are out of water and boards, which is a major problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWGAstormdawg Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z gfs sure wants to crash ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 To be fair, it's slightly west of the 18z, following the coastline, but it was already too close for comfort. Still not a full landfall yet. Wondering if it takes a slower turn versus the 18z. It's moving E of due N @ 78 hrs.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:49 AM, NJwx85 said: Close to a worst case scenario Expand To be fair, this isn't right. A worst case scenario, by far, is a landfall in Dade or Broward. While there's been a fair bit of development since, Frances and Jeanne hit St. lucie county pretty hard back in 2004 and the damage wasn't extreme. Population densities are substantially lower up there compared to further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:54 AM, Tibet said: As we get closer to this "event" I think there will be a good number of weenies realizing just how bad this is shaping up to be... not to fear monger but watching these frames is giving me chills... Expand You betcha - and I'm inland by 60 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 looks like it will miss sc entirely. hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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