thess Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Port Canaveral shutting down tomorrow. http://m.wesh.com/weather/port-canaveral-ceo-issues-evacuation-order/41962314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:31 AM, andyhb said: Did you even look at the microwave image posted above? Expand Just in case, this is the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:31 AM, andyhb said: Did you even look at the microwave image posted above? Expand Sure Microwave is impressive, but take a peep at recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:36 AM, jojo762 said: Sure Microwave is impressive, but take a peep at recon. Expand You just said it "doesn't appear to be all that strong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:36 AM, jojo762 said: Sure Microwave is impressive, but take a peep at recon. Expand At the time of the advisory recon had just done one quad pass, central pressure was stable, and MW showed an improved structure...why would they lower the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 It's not getting over Cuba in a hurry thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The GFS ensembles have jumped on board with the ECMWF ensembles. I think we see a marked shift east in the forecast cone at the 11PM update. more of a pronounced turn away from the NC coast sparing much of NC of bad weather. woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:43 AM, PackGrad05 said: The GFS ensembles have jumped on board with the ECMWF ensembles. I think we see a marked shift east in the forecast cone at the 11PM update. more of a pronounced turn away from the NC coast sparing much of NC of bad weather. woohoo! Expand They HATE doing huge 6 hour shifts, particularly after only 6-12 hours of model runs, and the costs of being wrong on that shift are vast. I think you will be stunned at how little they shift the end of the track right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'm not saying it'll be a huge shift, but I'm betting it will be the biggest one in the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 12:52 AM, Derecho! said: They HATE doing huge 6 hour shifts, particularly after 6 hours of model runs, and the costs of being wrong on that shift are vast. I think you will be stunned at how little they shift the end of the track right. Expand There was one with Hermaine and it turned out to be a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z runs are gonna be important. Remember we got about 13 more runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 the 0Z models are out and follow suit. 2 model runs in a row with a shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:10 AM, PackGrad05 said: the 0Z models are out and follow suit. 2 model runs in a row with a shift east. Expand The 0z global models. Anything that is already out isn't very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:09 AM, LMA1973 said: Im with ya!! Keep this thing away from here. Im astounded at the folks who wish for a landfalling hurricane smh. Some sadisitic folks out there for sure. At any rate, yes there will be a marked shift east at 11:00 and by tomorrow morning we will see this as a trend not a 6 hour temporary shift.For folks reading this with respect to possible landfall, we're talking about the late end track forecast. Essentially a sharper recurve that could benefit the coastal areas of North Carolina as hinted in the late 12z and 18z guidance. That however does not decrease the chance of a landfall further down the coast in the concave of the Florida/Ga/SC coastline. And also, any change in the modeling back towards a deeper trough and less zonal flow brings areas further up the coast back into play as well.And yes, there are landfall weenies. But there are those that just want more certainty in a forecast. We just don't have that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:15 AM, Dunkman said: The 0z global models. Anything that is already out isn't very useful. Expand But the last 4 runs of them have all trended the same way. I think that is somewhat useful, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:10 AM, PackGrad05 said: the 0Z models are out and follow suit. 2 model runs in a row with a shift east. Expand Actually if anything the 12Z's went west from the 06Z a tiny bit this afternoon, but then the 12Z models all started the slower speed and closer track down south with the turnout before landfall in NC.....so most 12Z runs all ran way east of the 12Z guidence 06Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I was under the impression that through the day, models didn't so much shift "East" to many.. especially in Florida, SC areas. Maybe away from major impacts into NC and further up the East coast? Am I wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:40 AM, Shawn said: I was under the impression that through the day, models didn't so much shift "East" to many.. especially in Florida, SC areas. Maybe away from major impacts into NC and further up the East coast? Am I wrong here? Expand No you are correct, if anything for FL/GA they have shifted west through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 btw, not sure if this was stated earlier, but I found out while I was asleep (work night shift at Andersen). but at least Beaufort SC, mandatory evacuations as of 3pm tomorrow, as per a friend of mine from HS who lives there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Observation Time: 1:21Z on Wednesday Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... RADAR FIX EYE 20 DEG 07 MIN N 74 DEG 19 MIN W GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION CIRCULAR EYE DIAM 18 NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:42 AM, Jim Marusak said: btw, not sure if this was stated earlier, but I found out while I was asleep (work night shift at Andersen). but at least Beaufort SC, mandatory evacuations as of 3pm tomorrow, as per a friend of mine from HS who lives there. Expand Yep. The whole coast is evacuating. All of Beaufort County is in the mandatory zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Is it me, or do the last few frames look like it's moving almost due west over in Cuba. That was the case that would rip it to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:46 AM, Joe4alb said: Is it me, or do the last few frames look like it's moving almost due west over in Cuba. That was the case that would rip it to shreds Expand Just a wobble. No need to sound the alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:46 AM, Joe4alb said: Is it me, or do the last few frames look like it's moving almost due west over in Cuba. That was the case that would rip it to shreds Expand It will not come off Cuba a major hurricane and I never thought it would for one minute despite the NHCs forecast. Euro has it at 969mb Tomorrow 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 cuba really did a number on the eyewall. trying hard to move back offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:52 AM, DopplerWx said: cuba really did a number on the eyewall. trying hard to move back offshore. Expand This particular radar distorts radar imagery over land. So while it certainly did, I don't think its to the proportion that radar displays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:53 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: This particular radar distorts radar imagery over land. So while it certainly did, I don't think its to the proportion that radar displays. Expand interesting, thanks for the clarification. should get a better view here in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikesNaturesFury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Is there a link or resource online that provides the times (zulu) for ECMWF, GFS, etc. (models in general, but I'm hoping to learn about the ones most pertinent to tropical systems) run results are posted/available? I'm sorry if this is a repeated question, a stupid question, or a question that should be posted elsewhere. Thanks in advance for any assistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 From the IR loop it appears to be strengthening and getting better organized, at least in the last couple of hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:53 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: This particular radar distorts radar imagery over land. So while it certainly did, I don't think its to the proportion that radar displays. Expand It's used to track moving objects and probably has some algorithm to remove things that it doesn't think is a plane which in this case is land. http://fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/airdef/arsr-4.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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