wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yeah, sure...Day 6 is now showing up....moving S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Its not 144 hours is there now. Its a definite loop back across Florida track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Nope...It is the same system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Land interaction and shear have must taken its toll by 168 after it gets left behind by the trough. That's still way out. The most important change in this Euro run is the more immediate and sharper NW turn tomorrow.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Euro also shows insane weakening, it drops to a 1010MB low in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:22 PM, WeatherFan202 said: Is what the Euro showing even realistic? Expand If it misses the trough, and the trough lifts that fast, then yes, as ridging would build pretty fast, blocking and then pulling Matthew SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 6:56 PM, NJwx85 said: Josh would miss the core by a lot if the new Euro verified. Expand Josh never left the airport once he landed in Exuma. The idea was to be flexible if a relocation was needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro on crack with the loop-de-loop? Does this make any physical sense? I know this is way off topic, but it makes me think of this... https://www.google.com/search?q=airplane+pulling+plug&biw=1280&bih=600&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwjFqZuE8MHPAhUCHR4KHR6UBrcQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=mBNvJAquit52RM%3A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I see it now, yup, the Euro takes what's left of Matthew and sends it back towards Central FL and then into the Gulf. LMAO, you really can't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Could the models possibly not handling the interaction correctly with Nicole? I saw something mention the FUJI effect. Nicole is supposed to be wayyy far enough away to not have that effect.... any thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Toss the Euro after that doughnut into the gulf..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Nicole is always pretty far away, so it's not interacting with Matt. Nicole does it's own crazy thing...misses the trough as well, heads SE, then does a cyclonic loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:24 PM, wxmx said: If it misses the trough, and the trough lifts that fast, then yes, as ridging would build pretty fast, blocking and then pulling Matthew SW Expand The high res Euro actually shows the remnant circulation completely in tact when it makes landfall a second time in SE FL at 174hrs. It then amazingly gets carried into the Gulf of Mexico. Given how vigorous the circulation is, wouldn't at all be surprised if the Euro was weakening Matthew too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I've honestly NEVER seen the Euro this inconsistent with a major storm before. It's usually a rock in what it depicts. Petition to bring the old Euro back. It was better years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:20 PM, wxmx said: Day 8...it gets into the GoM ...apparently it missed the trough, then looped back for a 2nd FL landfall, and is moving WSW into the E GoM Expand That's insane. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Late to rise from his slumbers, the King saw things through a hungover haze and his servants were left to clean up the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Day 9, Matthew misses a 2nd trough and moves slowly SW deeper into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:27 PM, Bacon Strips said: I've honestly NEVER seen the Euro this inconsistent with a major storm before. It's usually a rock in what it depicts. Petition to bring the old Euro back. It was better years ago. Expand This new Euro has more tendency to have wild run to run swings for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Can someone help this weenie here understand why the Euro is having this thing do a Loop back into florida. Is it essentially saying that the ridge ain't going to pick it up and The caribbean wind current is going to pick it back up and throw it at Florida again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 WPC not really buying the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:27 PM, Bacon Strips said: I've honestly NEVER seen the Euro this inconsistent with a major storm before. It's usually a rock in what it depicts. Petition to bring the old Euro back. It was better years ago. Expand The 12Z Euro Run is very similar to one of the 0Z Euro Ensemble members, though that member ended up hitting the Yucatan after the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ha, Euro is pulling a CMC and spawning L's across the Atlantic basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Day 10...Matt is still alive, drifting SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 doesn't it seem likely that this run of the euro is corrupt? ETA - can I get the King's # please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Don't toss an entire run because of a weird mid-long range, that's lazy and stupid analysis. Short term is still applicable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:30 PM, SnowGoose69 said: This new Euro has more tendency to have wild run to run swings for sure Expand On 10/4/2016 at 7:30 PM, Thesolmachine said: Can someone help this weenie here understand why the Euro is having this thing do a Loop back into florida. Is it essentially saying that the ridge ain't going to pick it up and The caribbean wind current is going to pick it back up and throw it at Florida again? Expand The new Euro 'actin up' ...either has to do with the newer updates it's had done during the last year or so... or climate change and generally 'weaker flows' being harder to predict. (even though GFS doesn't seem to be having a problem predicting them) Or a combination of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The King is Dead, Long live the King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Well, the Euro did start an hour later than normal, so maybe it was a little wonky that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Seriously, five surface lows at 30-40 degrees north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:33 PM, jojo762 said: Don't toss an entire run because of a weird mid-long range, that's lazy and stupid analysis. Short term is still applicable. Expand Even the short term forecast by Florida is a definite deviation though from most other 12z guidance and the early 18z hurricane models looked slightly east as well, emphasis on slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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