TullyHeel Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Slightly west? Looks way west this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not sure how much the Euro main frame crash will effect this run. I'd be cautious on the 12z runs data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:09 PM, NJwx85 said: Indeed, Euro makes landfall in Florida. That's terrible news. Expand It will be even worse if Matthew does as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro has great continuity now with the 12Z GFS--only about 50 miles difference at each time point--of course that 50 miles might be the difference between FL landfall and not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Riding the coast right up to Savannah @ 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The trough on this Euro also has a higher amplitude and is sharper at 72-96 hr. The heights off the mid-Atlantic are stronger. The may force Matthew more north before being kicked back off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:09 PM, cdhay17 said: Euro has a Category 4 landfall in Daytona Beach at hour 72 Expand Looks South of there to me, closer to Vero Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Anyone know how far inland it gets between 72 and 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro is extremely slow it looks like. 72 hour position looks much further south than previous model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The obvious thing to watch for the next 24 hrs is how soon and how sharply does Matthew bend back to the nnw/nw once it passes the eastern tip of Cuba. A Florida landfall would require a nw movement commence pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Sharp turn East near Savannah and back offshore, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:14 PM, Amped said: Anyone know how far inland it gets between 72 and 96? Expand Looks like the eye basically rides the coast between 72 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 That is a terrible run for almost all of the East Coast of Florida from PBI and points North, including Jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:13 PM, Windspeed said: The trough also has a higher amplitude and is sharper at 72 hr. The heights off the mid-Atlantic are stronger. The may force Matthew more north into the Carolinas before being kicked back off the coast. Sent from my LG G4. Expand It's flatter...the trough appears to miss Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The answer is at H5, Euro has Matthew completely missing the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 with western trends continuing, a track into the eastern gulf isn't off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm not trying to be some alarmist but once this thing clears Cuba it's going to explode. Barring something going wrong with an ERC the environment is going to be ideal in the Bahamas. I would not be shocked if it makes a run at 160-170 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Euro may have Matthew weakening more significantly due to a long duration of land interaction. Doesn't get Mathew as far north as I thought it would. That kick out is weird. It competely loses the system.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like it's doing a Fujiwara with Nichole on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The public really has a hard time dealing with low-angle-of-incidence forecast track accuracy; the forecast error on Charley was tiny (a few degrees) yet the public was focused on the "line" to Tampa despite the actual landfall location of Port Charlotte receiving adequate warning time. There may be some dynamic regional to Florida where people also consider Tampa to be the other side of the moon location-wise compared to Port Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Almost identical to the 12z UKMET. Actually moves Southeastward after missing the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Missing 144 on tropical tidbits, but it looks like it goes ENE and OTS after around Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So the euro is showing pretty much no threat for the carolinas? That's great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 144h missing, but 168 showing LF in the same FL spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Day 8...it gets into the GoM ...apparently it missed the trough, then looped back for a 2nd FL landfall, and is moving WSW into the E GoM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:19 PM, wxmx said: 144h missing, but 168 showing LF in the same FL spot! Expand I don't see that, only out to hr 144 on SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:19 PM, wxmx said: 144h missing, but 168 showing LF in the same FL spot! Expand Sure that's not another low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:20 PM, wxmx said: Day 8...it gets into the GoM ...apparently it missed the trough, then looped back for a 2nd FL landfall, and is moving WSW into the E GoM Expand Is what the Euro showing even realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:20 PM, wxmx said: Day 8...it gets into the GoM ...apparently it missed the trough, then looped back for a 2nd FL landfall, and is moving WSW into the E GoM Expand wow..did I call that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 7:19 PM, wxmx said: 144h missing, but 168 showing LF in the same FL spot! Expand It does a crazy Ivan loop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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