PaEasternWX Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Earlier phase so far on 6z GFS. Also a little east so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wow. 40 minutes ago - microwave imagery: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GFS still landfall near SC NC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Mean looking storm now.... Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Matthew making landfall as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This thing's annular. Looks virtually the same as Isabel when she went annular - excluding the convective blob to the east. Here's night "visible": Compare it to Isabel (wikipedia link): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel#/media/File:Hurricane_Isabel_14_sept_2003_1445Z.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I dunno... I think many people are quick to call a healthy, symmetrical storm annular. Still plenty of banding evident.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Edit: You may be right - I wasn't paying close attention to the microwave pass. It still shows two spiral bands north and south not visible on IR. From a research paper in 2002 on Annular hurricanes: Quote When compared to the greater population of tropical cyclones in an archive of infrared (IR) tropical cyclone imagery, these storms are distinctly more axisymmetric with circular eyes surrounded by a nearly uniform ring of deep convection and a curious lack of deep convective features outside this ring . Because of this symmetry, these storms have also been referred to as "truck tires", and "doughnuts". This appearance in satellite imagery can persist for days. Expand http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articles/Annular_hurricanes.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Is the Air Force mission #19 not relaying back data in real time? Seems like it just stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Data isn't relayed in real time. HDOB messages relay about once every 10 minutes. Last one was sent about 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Oh gosh. What an ugly landfall. That's not a particularly densely populated area by Haiti standards but it's Haiti, so it's still carpeted in tens of thousands of people living in huts. That's not funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Josh should be landing soon. Still may have time to move if needed but think for now we have the best spot picked out. Needle in the haystack type of stuff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Where is Josh? Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 What a monster of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 11:49 AM, dizzy9479 said: Where is Josh? Cuba? Expand I'm pretty sure you can't fly in there yet from the states. Unless he's granted some sort of research entrance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Josh is on Exuma. Decided against Cuba because of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:08 PM, Scott747 said: Josh is on Exuma. Decided against Cuba because of track. Expand Exuma should be good. He'll have some space to maneuver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Haiti getting rocked right now. 110kt winds on the north side. If this had another 12 hours it would have been Cat5 again probably. I don't know how much worse it would have been, catastrophic either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 eye was immediately wrecked by the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:08 PM, Scott747 said: Josh is on Exuma. Decided against Cuba because of track. Expand I thought he had a strict no island hopping rule lol. I guess that's out the window since he now often chases typhoons on remote Japanese islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:23 PM, A-L-E-K said: eye was immediately wrecked by the mountains Expand It will be back over bath water again within the next two hours and looks to miss both Northern Haiti and Cuba, so not bad with all things said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:23 PM, A-L-E-K said: eye was immediately wrecked by the mountains Expand Definitely impinged on the north side on satellite. We'll see how it rebounds in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Mathew took a sharp turn to the NW once the eye came onshore Haiti. Not sure if that's just a temporary wobble thanks to the land interaction or a faster turn which would put Eastern Cuba back in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:27 PM, Hoth said: Definitely impinged on the north side on satellite. We'll see how it rebounds in a few hours. Expand It's hauling, the Northern eyewall is already back over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 North eyewall back over water, mountains did disrupt the circulation some. Curved rainfall band pounding Les Cayes right now. VERY ugly for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:33 PM, NJwx85 said: Expand Yeah, radar does seem to bear that out. Brutal hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:09 PM, cmasty1978 said: Exuma should be good. He'll have some space to maneuver. Expand Yeah the orientation of the island was at least a slight positive. I'm a little concerned about it missing him just to the west, but for now there is still a flight back to Nassau scheduled this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Scott, feel free to set up a thread for Josh if you think it's warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trying to catch up from overnight. Looks like the westward trend has continued with the models. Euro seems the furthest east, but looks like most of the runs show landfall somewhere between Charleston and the SC/NC border. Not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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