hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:56 PM, wxmx said: Old sat image overlay Expand duh.... I can't believe that never occurred to me. I knew that recon showed the new eye, but I thought, for whatever reason, that the one recon saw was the new eye, and the one on sat was the old one. Don't ask how I came to that conclusion because even I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 -88c tops showing up in the GOES East window I wouldn't be shocked to see Matthew dip into the low 930's tonight and get the wind back to 130 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Pressure down to 934.5 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:02 AM, Superstorm93 said: -88c tops showing up in the GOES East window I wouldn't be shocked to see Matthew dip into the low 930's tonight and get the wind back to 130 knots Expand Already is.... 934.5 per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Surface feeder band being being shoved west by the terrain causing the core to look like an unbalanced washing machine. 934mb SLP, deepening again finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:55 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Expand No. vis sat image is older than recon. Just shows the N/NNE movement of center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:10 AM, Brick Tamland said: WRAL had it hitting the NC coast as a cat 2. Thinking it's going to be stronger than that. Expand It could be weaker if it hugs Florida or just overall is close to the SE coast for a long duration as it may pull in dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 MAX FL TEMP 18 C 225 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE ; New eyewall doesn't seem to be fully operational yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:56 PM, Superstorm93 said: Wow... 935 mb pressure with a much larger wind field. Expand wind fields always expand out when canes are nearing and/or interacting with land. they'll expand out more, when interacting with the bahamas / cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 navgem looks to be further west . hard to say as its loading out of order..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:42 PM, yoda said: 18z HWRF makes landfall SW of OBX at 111 Expand Wow that run is super ugly for the OBX and Ocracoke. Total devastation in Ocracoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:17 AM, Bacon Strips said: wind fields always expand out when canes are nearing land. Expand I have never heard that before. Anyway, I was hinting at the storm having pretty much completed its first old-fashioned EWRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 18z GFDL is much slower and never really makes landfall through 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:17 AM, Bacon Strips said: wind fields always expand out when canes are nearing and/or interacting with land. they'll expand out more, when interacting with the bahamas / cuba. Expand Wind fields expand when an ERC occurs, not when approaching land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Question for the experts: NHC says that hurricane force winds extend up to 40 miles from the center. I presume that the 40 miles would be on the right side. Would it be less on the left side. If so how much less.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:25 AM, Bacon Strips said: ohh god . you're not understanding. Expand Basic tropical cyclone meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 If anything, interaction with land can act to contract a storm and its associated wind-field via frictional influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:27 AM, andyhb said: If anything, interaction with land can act to contract a storm and its associated wind-field via frictional influence. Expand Edited to explain more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:29 AM, Bacon Strips said: Edited to explain more. Expand And it still doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:27 AM, andyhb said: If anything, interaction with land can act to contract a storm and its associated windfall via frictional influence. Expand Exactly. Land interaction constricts storms. That's why eyewalls tend to quickly collapse right after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:26 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Anyone have a long range radar which shows the core of Matthew? I've seen a couple of images out there but I haven't been able to find a good site.Jamaica might be one to check out. I know the Gitmo radar is still out of range. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm talking about when the core is interrupted by land, the winds spread out more in radius , while the peak winds lower more towards the center. Like when a top is spun. and no, the core hasn't been interrupted yet. talking in general terms. sometimes u need to know general science, and not just what's written in some book about hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 NHC UPDATED THERE UPDATE... CHANGED THE PRESSURE TO 934.5MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:22 AM, Superstorm93 said: 18z GFDL is much slower and never really makes landfall through 126 hours. Expand It gets close to the SC/NC border at 126... but its as a nasty Cat 4 cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 navgem is east once its north of carolinas aka hour 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not completely symmetric, but definitely larger Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:32 AM, Bacon Strips said: I'm talking about when the core is interrupted by land, the winds spread out more in radius , while the peak winds lower more towards the center. Like when a top is spun. and no, the core hasn't been interrupted yet. talking in general terms. sometimes u need to know general science, and not just what's written in some book about hurricanes. Expand Please link to the papers suggesting this, you know, how scientific method is carried out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:40 AM, wthrmn654 said: navgem is east once its north of carolinas aka hour 144.. Expand Hr 144 18z NAVGEM has Matthew in the Delmarva region headed NNE/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:40 AM, wthrmn654 said: navgem is east once its north of carolinas aka hour 144.. Expand Still further north than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Hurricane models are all over the place for the northeast but getting pretty close to Florida with some hitting Florida. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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