CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 00z models should have new data entered into them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:22 PM, csnavywx said: 18Z HWRF and GFDL both west of previous runs. Expand Where did you find the GFDL so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:25 PM, yoda said: Where did you find the GFDL so quickly? Expand GFDL is on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Lol recon found 20 knot FL winds and 147 knot surface winds. Probably flagged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:27 PM, cdhay17 said: GFDL is on Tropical Tidbits Expand I know, but 18z run is not up yet on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:27 PM, yoda said: I know, but 18z run is not up yet on there Expand look at GFDL not GFDL-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:28 PM, Joe4alb said: look at GFDL not GFDL-P Expand I did lol, still not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Oops, forgot to clear my cache for the GFDL, sorry about that. The HWRF* is west through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Recon is heading back in. Storm overall looks better, but I am interested in the state of the eyewall. Based on microwave imagery it appeared to be trying to undergo a ERC, and the recon fix should confirm progress, if any. Supporting this, a clear eye has disappeared despite overall organization of the storm increasing and cloud tops cooling. The current eye is ragged and clouded with strongest convection not directly near it attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Nice convective burst on the western half of the storm currently. Bit of a track wobble probably due to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Wait... the 18z gfs didn't make landfall?? Can't look in detail, am mobile currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Stay on topic and take the personal problems elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:35 PM, SN_Lover said: Wait... the 18z gfs didn't make landfall?? Can't look in detail, am mobile currently. Expand Nope. Here is the closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z HWRF makes landfall SW of OBX at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Now, unless im mistaken, when a new model run starts, shouldn't the 00 pressure match if not be semi close to what the current presssures are with the hurricane? looking at some stuff like gfs some runs having pressures way high? the hurricane models seem to have the most realistic pressures at least to start.im probably not understanding it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:42 PM, wthrmn654 said: Now, unless im mistaken, when a new model run starts, shouldn't the 00 pressure match if not be semi close to what the current presssures are with the hurricane? looking at some stuff like gfs some runs having pressures way high? the hurricane models seem to have the most realistic pressures at least to start.im probably not understanding it correctly. Expand It's a resolution issue. The global's don't have enough resolution to handle it. Tropical Tidbits has a surface pressure that is full res with the GFS, so it does better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Recon just found 119 knot surface winds so far. 233900 1647N 07426W 6980 02754 9599 +135 //// 152104 116 119 041 05 233930 1646N 07428W 6972 02733 9552 +143 +143 141095 100 117 018 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:14 PM, pcbjr said: Was living on Ortega Forest Drive - not far from you. We rowed a john boat from just south of Stockton School where the canal is right up Roosevelt Blvd., all the way to the Roosevelt Bridge; the whole road was under water. In that low area, no you don't want it near you (but think of San Marco). Expand Yeah. Hoping this west trend dies a quick death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Looking at radar imagery it appears ERC just completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:44 PM, WeatherFan202 said: Recon just found 119 knot surface winds so far. 233900 1647N 07426W 6980 02754 9599 +135 //// 152104 116 119 041 05 233930 1646N 07428W 6972 02733 9552 +143 +143 141095 100 117 018 00 Expand Might get flagged. High rain rate present at the time of the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Looks like double eye wall structure from HH data. (Dual Maximum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:42 PM, yoda said: 18z HWRF makes landfall SW of OBX at 111 Expand That angle is brutal too, would push so much water up the Pamlico/Neuse River systems, would nail all the major beaches from ILM, Wrightsville up to Topsail then the New River at Jacksonville, and then put Emerald Isle/Atlantic Beach of the most populated islands on our coast in the north eyewall.....then nail Hatteras to KDH.....really just about the worst case for the coast and still it would get far enough inland to get my city and several other larger inland areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z GFDL is S L O W... at 126 its still down by SC/NC border area offshore and moving N... but its at Cat 4 strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Latest MW confirms ERC is completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Extrap central pressure down to 934.5mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Wow... 935 mb pressure with a much larger wind field. Terrible timing for those on Hispaniola. On 10/3/2016 at 11:55 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Expand The satellite image is old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:55 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Expand Old sat image overlay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:55 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Expand You can see in the bottom left corner that the satellite image was from 20:45Z and it's currently 23:57Z. So yes, where the plane flew through would be the current location of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 11:55 PM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Noob question but can someone explain that for me? Is this where the new eye is located? Expand You can see where the recon shows the eye to the north of the sat image eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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