Kevin Reilly Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 3:16 PM, NJwx85 said: That's because most of the time down there you're still dealing with almost an entirely tropical system. Once Mathew reaches further North and extra tropical transition begins, the wind field and rain shield will expand dramatically. Every model that shows Mathew interacting with the trough expands both fields hundreds of miles from the center. Just look at the last two GFS runs verbatim, where the heaviest rains are well removed from the core. Expand Yes that is a clear indication of interaction with the cold front over Eastern Pa and NJ.. Floydd caused 10-16" of rain back in 1999 along with 40mph winds as he passed by this set up looks pretty similar but I am sure we are far from the final solution at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The 12z Euro starts off a tad SE of 00z but ends up in the same position by Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Noticeably west by 72 hours. Ridge coming in stronger, but 98L is more developed this run. We'll see how it plays out with the trough a little slower in the Central US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:13 PM, Superstorm93 said: Noticeably west by 72 hours. Ridge coming in stronger, but 98L is more developed this run. We'll see how it plays out with the trough a little slower in the Central US Expand This run is definitely West of 00z by a good margin on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 By HR 96, EURO well west. Similar to UKMET/GFS it seems. Atlantic ridge really being pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Sizable shift west by D4 compared to the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The Euro is very close to getting the Western eyewall onshore near the space coast before sliding North and sparing them the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro going for SC at 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:16 PM, NJwx85 said: The Euro is very close to getting the Western eyewall onshore near the space coast before sliding North and sparing them the worst. Expand Ala Floyd in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Terrible run for Charleston and coastal SC as Mathew slowly moves NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 CONUS landfall projected now for the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Could be bad news for getting GOES-R launched on schedule. Its only a month out, and Im assuming that a major hurricane grazing the area would cause some delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Myrtle Beach, SC into the NW eyewall Saturday afternoon. Sustained hurricane force winds onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 By 00z Sunday the Euro is over a hundred miles further North than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 And there's tons of mT air flooding the SE in advance of the storm. Just in time for a coastal scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 EURO maintains the OTS track. Hard to get excited about anything other than some beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:23 PM, NJwx85 said: Myrtle Beach, SC into the NW eyewall Saturday afternoon. Sustained hurricane force winds onshore. Expand Hello. I live in Myrtle Beach...where are you seeing these models? Would love to be able to follow along with what everyone else is looking at. I try to not comment and just read, but wanted to ask that. Also, is the media not sharing these things with the public to prevent chaos before it's certain I guess? Thank you all for your work on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said: EURO maintains the OTS track. Hard to get excited about anything other than some beach erosion. Expand The Euro is going to be embarrassed with this system. That's how awful it is performing. It has shifted towards the other guidance at days 1-5 in nearly every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:34 PM, Brick Tamland said: Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend. Expand The Euro passes close enough to the FL/GA/SC/NC coasts to deliver a widespread 6-12" of rain and high end TS force winds. If you don't think this run was a major shift towards the Western camp of solutions then I have no idea what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:33 PM, Jtm12180 said: Hello. I live in Myrtle Beach...where are you seeing these models? Would love to be able to follow along with what everyone else is looking at. I try to not comment and just read, but wanted to ask that. Also, is the media not sharing these things with the public to prevent chaos before it's certain I guess? Thank you all for your work on here! Expand Models are not forecasts. There's a relatively low chance of any point in particular getting hit when forecasting from this range, so forecasting a major impact at this point for any spot is likely to be calling wolf. Best advice is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It is better to waste some time preparing now than wait until when you are sure there is going to be an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Seems the global models are, perhaps unsurprisingly, just kicking the can down the road with respect to where they diverge. Now that they're all advertising either a brush or a landfall, they're disagreeing on what happens next: captured or kicked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:29 PM, Eskimo Joe said: EURO maintains the OTS track. Hard to get excited about anything other than some beach erosion. Expand I know what you mean....a major hurricane on 1 model run, missing landfall by dozens of miles... 5 or 6 days out is a real yawner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:34 PM, Brick Tamland said: Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend. Expand The big take away is that now that all the players are being sampled we are seeing the models that were pretty far apart start to narrow in on a consensus.....granted its 5 days out and much can change, but the fact that most models are now getting close to similar tracks means if you take the model consensus chances are increasing for NC take a hit of some sort at least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:39 PM, Snow88 said: Way west Expand What bothers me the most about this is the spread in speed. 120hr points spread from just off ACY to east of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marauder20 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 what are the chances of getting a flight into ft Lauderdale Thursday morning as currently scheduled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:33 PM, NJwx85 said: The Euro is going to be embarrassed with this system. That's how awful it is performing. It has shifted towards the other guidance at days 1-5 in nearly every single run. Expand Can you post some stats to back up how awful it is performing? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The LBAR does everything it can to keep bringing this in to the gulf run after run, no matter how unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:43 PM, marauder20 said: what are the chances of getting a flight into ft Lauderdale Thursday morning as currently scheduled? Expand All depends on how the conditions are. Airlines have limits to what they can operate in. Either way the airlines will have be waiving the fares to reschedule at no charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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