Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:56 PM, wxmx said: 121FL/113 SFMR Expand Cat 4 if this isn't flagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 194600 1342N 07124W 7591 02121 9539 +152 //// 104114 121 113 024 01 According to raw data text 113. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:49 PM, Superstorm93 said: I think we'll be in the dark until the mission at 7pm-1am We're in full blown RI though. Eyewall cooling and the pressures down to 954 mb I wouldn't be shocked to see 120-125 knots tonight. Expand Eye itself warming nicely too. Good latent heat release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:33 PM, Morris said: So is this now full textbook RI?Pressure was @ 993 mb at 5 PM AST yesterday. Pressure is currently @ 953 per recon. That's a 40 mb drop just under 23 hours and it will likely drop another millibar or two in the next hour. Official "textbook" rapid intensification is said to be a 42 mb drop in 24 hours per the NHC. This is right on that threshold.So yes, it has undergone rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 common sense says this'll hit the high 800's (mb) within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:02 PM, Bacon Strips said: common sense says this'll hit the high 800's (mb) within a few days. Expand Does anyone have info on the fastest pressure drop of a hurricane in history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:00 PM, Windspeed said: Pressure was @ 993 mb at 5 PM AST. Pressure is currently @ 953 per recon. That's a 40 mb drop just under 23 hours and it will likely drop another millibar or two in the next hour. Official "textbook" rapid intensification is said to be a 42 mb drop in 24 hours per the NHC. This is right on that threshold. So yes, it has undergone rapid intensification. Expand Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I'm not sure sub 900 mb is "common sense." It is exceptionally rare to see something like that in the Atlantic basin. Never say never, but you need absolutely perfect conditions for a beast like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:03 PM, TriPol said: Does anyone have info on the fastest pressure drop of a hurricane in history? Expand Believe it was Wilma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Just take a look at the latest dropsonde.121kts at the surface and 139kts at 939mb (height). Incredible intensification. Expand Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:03 PM, TriPol said: Does anyone have info on the fastest pressure drop of a hurricane in history? Expand Patricia, last year, 100mb in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:04 PM, Hoth said: I'm not sure sub 900 mb is "common sense." It is exceptionally rare to see something like that in the Atlantic basin. Never say never, but you need absolutely perfect conditions for a beast like that. Expand observed plenty of times in the past - (if ur an old fart like me) top 20 listed (with pressures) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:03 PM, TriPol said: Does anyone have info on the fastest pressure drop of a hurricane in history?Wilma in the Atlantic. Patricia in the Eastern Pacific. I'm not sure about the rest of the globe. We don't have recon in the Western Pacific. Just satellite estimates. Probably would have been Typhoon Haiyan if they had recon over there though. I still think Haiyan is the most intense tropical cyclone we've witnessed, regardless if it wasn't officially recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cat 4 if those windspeeds arent flagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 If dropsonde is really reading 121 knots at the surface what do you guys think the NHC will put as the intensity at 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Such a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:07 PM, Windspeed said: Wilma in the Atlantic. Patricia in the Eastern Pacific. I'm not sure about the rest of the globe. We don't have recon in the Western Pacific. Just satellite estimates. Probably would have been Typhoon Haiyan if they had recon over there though. I still think Haiyan is the most intense tropical cyclone we've witnessed, regardless if it wasn't officially recorded. Expand Wasn't as strong as Typhoon Tip or Patricia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Jesus. 121 knots at the surface. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Won't Cuba do a pretty good job of eating this guy's lunch? It won't turn it into a TS I'm sure, but won't those mountains do serious erosion damage to its peak intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 It's been so long since we've had a nice storm that people are throwing out the most ridiculous comparisons. Act like you've been here before. jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Also guys if you see the eye start to shrink. That is also a sign that the hurricane is intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 952 extrap on new pass. Can't wait to see the new disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 eye clearing out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:15 PM, cmasty1978 said: It's been so long since we've had a nice storm that people are throwing out the most ridiculous comparisons. Act like you've been here before. jeez.Nobody has made any comparisons. A question was asked about fastest pressure drops on record and it was answered. Don't start reckless banter please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I feel bad for this fishing vessel just north-west of the eye checked on marinetraffic.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Also probably doesn't need it but can a mod like pin this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 ADT up to 6.5 or 125 knots now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 8:21 PM, Superstorm93 said: ADT up to 6.5 or 125 knots now... Expand Where did you see that. What I am looking at still says 107.2 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 947.8 mb. HOLY GUACAMOLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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