Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So the Euro completely misses the trof that swings thru the NE between the 6th and 7th and IF is correct opens the door for this to head more N thereafter. Wow, that's a new wrinkle in the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 6:52 PM, NJwx85 said: Nope, still virtually stalled over the Bahamas at 210 hrs. Expand By escape east I meant not make it as far west as Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 6:53 PM, wxmx said: Tries, but the Gulf ridge responds by strengthening even more...still drifting NE by day 9, but almost under the ridge's grasp. Expand More ridging intensifies over interior new england as well encouraging a more northerly/westerly even track, should Matthew fall under its influence. EDIT: Ridge sits over OH at 240hrs. Mathew stalled N of bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Jeebus, sub 930 mb on a LR global model post 200 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Then meanders South between 216-240 on the Euro while deepening to sub 925mb. You cant make this stuff up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 914mb Matthew drifting south towards the Bahamas again at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 6:54 PM, Hoosier said: By escape east I meant not make it as far west as Florida. Expand Oh, looks like it's still stalled as the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Tropical cyclone heat potential is very high in the northern Carribean and Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Verbatim, the 12Z Euro would be catastrophic for the northernmost portions of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 6:59 PM, bdgwx said: Tropical cyclone heat potential is very high in the northern Carribean and Bahamas. Expand how low will he go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 If I were Jamaican right now, I'd be booking a vacation somewhere. And fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:09 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If I were Jamaican right now, I'd be booking a vacation somewhere. And fast. Expand wonder how good their internet is. ( livestream) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 According to Recon pressure seems to be down to 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So,did the 12z ecmwf really malfunction or no ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:14 PM, wthrmn654 said: So,did the 12z ecmwf really malfunction or no ? Expand It corrected shortly after. I wouldn't put too much stock in the hiccup. Run looked fine otherwise. It initialized properly via pressure wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 anybody have a link for the 1 minute Sat updates? these are every 15 / 30 mins http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:12 PM, WeatherFan202 said: According to Recon pressure seems to be down to 950 mb. Expand I saw 953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:20 PM, jojo762 said: I saw 953 Expand Your right sorry. Anyways don't know if I'm reading it right 191030 1336N 07121W 7535 02082 9533 +205 +121 128022 023 026 000 00 but assuming I am, looks like 953.3 is the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:14 PM, wthrmn654 said: So,did the 12z ecmwf really malfunction or no ? Expand No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Euro has a max of 58 inches of rain in the Caribbean. Would the islands wash away?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So is this now full textbook RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Recon going for yet another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:25 PM, Eskimo Joe said: No Expand Other Mets are saying the same thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18z suite shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:37 PM, Morris said: Recon going for yet another pass. Expand They are sampling the eyewall. BTW, the vortex's central pressure is 954 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 7:44 PM, Morris said: 18z suite shifted west. Expand How so when compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On 9/30/2016 at 5:49 PM, NJwx85 said: Massive beast Expand Based on where Hurricane Matthew is at, how long can a plane stay in it, taking readings, etc, before it has to head home to re-fuel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I think we'll be in the dark until the mission at 7pm-1am We're in full blown RI though. Eyewall cooling and the pressures down to 954 mb I wouldn't be shocked to see 120-125 knots tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 121FL/113 SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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