PaEasternWX Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Invest97L has just been initiated. Quote INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2016, LO, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , 5, METWATCH, , AL972016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 0Z GFS has this thing eventually making landfall as a Hurricane in the 950's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 0Z ECMWF for the first time diverts it's solution, has a strike in the Caribbean then OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 could this storm affect florida or will the storm be tracking at too low a latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z ECMWF for the first time diverts it's solution, has a strike in the Caribbean then OTS I wouldn't say that. You can't really tell that it would go OTS since it stops at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Will be interesting to watch all the models sniff this one out. Last night it had the storm making landfall in Central America this morning it goes up Florida before yesterday had it in Louisiana. All of them have been showing a powerful cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 one important thing I need to know and that is has orlando ever been ordered mandatory evacuation before? i'm taking my holiday there next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 3 hours ago, geoffs said: one important thing I need to know and that is has orlando ever been ordered mandatory evacuation before? i'm taking my holiday there next week Orlando is well inland. Where would a metropolitan area evacuate too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I hope this doesn't hit the U.S. as bad as it could be (and due to how it may throw a wrench into the election unpredictably). But, at least we may finally have a nice storm to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 12z GFS has it staying out in the Atlantic, away from US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: 12z GFS has it staying out in the Atlantic, away from US Clips Cape Cod and New England Very close to a capture and a dangerous hurricane a long the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 The latest model trend is to more-robustly dig the upper midwest trough into the eastern US/western Atlantic and erode the ridging north of the system before it can even reach the western Caribbean. That is still a ways out, though, so plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 1 hour ago, cdhay17 said: 12z GFS has it staying out in the Atlantic, away from US That's been the case all season...weak, sheared systems. Have we even seen anything get above a Cat 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's been the case all season...weak, sheared systems. Have we even seen anything get above a Cat 1? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 12z Euro ensembles a bit weaker/faster with the cut off low over E-CONUS, still a lot of spread but keeping the general idea of westerly track with a weak ridge building over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's been the case all season...weak, sheared systems. Have we even seen anything get above a Cat 1? Gfs wasnt weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 Any guesses for 18z?. Maybe goes all the way to Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Op Euro PR threat then a fish. Lots of spread as you should expect...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 17 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Op Euro PR threat then a fish. Lots of spread as you should expect...... At this juncture you really should be really only looking at the ensemble mean which is way west... at least from my experience.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I'm gonna guess this becomes the monster of the hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The Euro op run (and supported by the ensemble mean) shows 97L making its first landfall in Columbia, South America. I believe (please correct me if I'm wrong) the last time a northern hemisphere cyclone made landfall on South America was Hurricane Ceasar in 1996. Right now modeling is forecasting a very favorable environment for development north of Venezuela. And although it's beyond the EPS's typical skill range most members are an eventual GOM track and much further west than the op run. GEFS Ensemble is tightly wound around the operational run. No members into the GOM, all showing a clash with hispanola then OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England. Way to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: This is looking more and like a swing and a miss. No threat to the Gulf, very slight for FL. maybe a chance Carolinas or eastern New England. Wayyy to early. Dangerous setup with the trough comibg through and possibly capturing the storm. Euro has a very interesting setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 12z HWRF has a cat 2 cane striking the lesser Antilles in roughly 60 hours. That would be the first serious threat they have faced in awhile. Gets down to the low 940's south of Hispaniola, in a similar spot to where Sandy was picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Euro mean is west of the op This is a sandy like scenario with the trough coming in and possibly capturing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 I agree. It's too early to write off any CONUS scenario including GOM entries. The EPS spread after D7 and on to D10 looks like random dart throws, but verbatim the mean is still for a GOM entry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 When you see the spread on the EPS, its really quite scary to see people saying that this will head OTS after entering the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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