smoof Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Taking a long term model at face Value is 100% pointless. I always tell my non weather nerd friends that like to look at 7-14 day forecasts on crap like weather.com and accuweather, to just flip a coin on any weather forecast past 5 days out, it's much more accurate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 My worst winter nightmare upcoming Wednesday through Saturday with bare ground and an arctic airmass. If there's no snow, I'd rather have the 50° weather we will experience Monday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, IWXwx said: My worst winter nightmare upcoming Wednesday through Saturday with bare ground and an arctic airmass. If there's no snow, I'd rather have the 50° weather we will experience Monday-Tuesday. Me too. At least it won't be absurdly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It's so funny how different each side of the lake views this. We are going to have epic LES on those days in many spots, even I should be good for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 54 minutes ago, Jonger said: It's so funny how different each side of the lake views this. We are going to have epic LES on those days in many spots, even I should be good for several inches. Yep, when you live away from the lakes you can get some long stretches where you don't even see a flake. If you're a snow lover you have to cherish each and every time it snows at all, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 With 2017 on the doorstep, I thought I would share a few of my new year's resolutions: -I will not stay up ridiculously late for storms anymore -I will not pay to read any meteorologists thoughts -I will not get so jealous of Will's lake effect pics I'd like to wish everyone a happy and healthy new year. Eclipse year is finally here...less than 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 18 hours ago, Jonger said: It's so funny how different each side of the lake views this. We are going to have epic LES on those days in many spots, even I should be good for several inches. 17 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yep, when you live away from the lakes you can get some long stretches where you don't even see a flake. If you're a snow lover you have to cherish each and every time it snows at all, lol. I was really down after losing our nice base the day after Christmas, then a mere 3 days later it was just pounding snow after work 1" per hour stuff and it was a snow globe! It's hard enough to adjust back to SMI after NMI, lol. Couldn't handle anywhere further south or west. I'd rather go all the way to FL or AZ and have ZERO snow expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I was really down after losing our nice base the day after Christmas, then a mere 3 days later it was just pounding snow after work 1" per hour stuff and it was a snow globe! It's hard enough to adjust back to SMI after NMI, lol. Couldn't handle anywhere further south or west. I'd rather go all the way to FL or AZ and have ZERO snow expectations. Yep, MI is full of days with mood flakes. That's why Josh (Wyandotte) can stay so positive even in the midst of an awful pattern lol. Might have a different take on things west of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: With 2017 on the doorstep, I thought I would share a few of my new year's resolutions: -I will not stay up ridiculously late for storms anymore -I will not pay to read any meteorologists thoughts -I will not get so jealous of Will's lake effect pics I'd like to wish everyone a happy and healthy new year. Eclipse year is finally here...less than 8 months. Can't wait. Here's how it looked on Aug 21 this past year. Hope we see a similar setup during the eclipse. I'm leaning towards heading west towards Nebraska, as opposed to south. Think they would have a better chance at clear skies, but will have to wait and see when we get there. Who knows, maybe it will be cloudy out there and clear as a bell in southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, cyclone77 said: Yep, MI is full of days with mood flakes. That's why Josh (Wyandotte) can stay so positive even in the midst of an awful pattern lol. Might have a different take on things west of the lakes. True dat, and it doesn't hurt that by historical avgs, SMI has been on a tear of late, even the Super-Nino was robust for a lot of this region, and they're usually the worst. See 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 for 3 I endured myself. Was in NMI for 94-95 and that netted me a brown Christmas week, that I took off work to ride non-stop LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I might be fixin to try moving to a snow-belt in the UP of Michigan for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The vast majority of this sub gets zilch over the next 10 days. I find that hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is shaping up to be a complete dud of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The vast majority of this sub gets zilch over the next 10 days. I find that hard to believe Agree that it is hard to believe - but if it does occur, and we then get flooded with pacific air in about 10 days as many models show, it's an unmitigated disaster of a winter for the lakes into the Ohio valley, outside of lake snow belts. No other way to spin it. No snow cover imby since 12-26 and no decent snowfall since mid-December (which is bad enough)...but on top of that, we would be missing out on the heart of winter over the next few weeks. And I know we technically had above normal snowfall here in December and things are even worse further south...but our winter climo is horrible and not even worth discussing for comparison purposes. The good news, I suppose, is that things can't get any worse. Usually we have good winters in weak La Ninas...but the leftover strong El Niño from last year is probably messing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The vast majority of this sub gets zilch over the next 10 days. I find that hard to believe It's been a bleak 3 week stretch, that's for sure. Looking like a 4th week as well. Still a long way to go this winter, but always hate having these long stretches of dullness during the core of winter. I'd be happy with a wussy clipper at this point, just to put a little cover down to make it look like Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This would be a kick in the pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm just glad that we bagged a decent December around here, being that I'm someone who prefers a front-loaded winter. Would've been nice to have some snow falling on Christmas and for it to keep rolling into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Signals are growing stronger for another warm-up beyond Jan 12th as the cold air retreats further West again. Can't catch a break! Besides that 1.5-2 week period in December, this Winter hasn't been that great for much of this sub-forum and the next 5-10 days aren't very eventful either. zzzzz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 58 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: This would be a kick in the pants. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It truly sucks that a December with 18.5" of snow leads into a January opening with completely bare ground (outside of gray snowbanks in parking lots). Even more impressive is SW MI is in the same boat, and some areas there saw over 40" of December snow. The next 2 weeks also look meh at face value, however it appears that what was touted all along, a roller coaster winter, is indeed coming to fruition. I see no reason it wont continue the rest of the way, and also it must be noted that in such patterns the models will struggle even more than usual (for those who like to take things at face value in timeframes they shouldnt). Its hard to tell how the makeup of the board has changed, but in the old days, we snowcover lovers were few and far between, it was all about the storms. A volatile up and down pattern bodes much better for big storms than the cold, NW flow pattern that I and a few others would prefer. When looking at average highs/lows, for most of the sub, the 2nd half of January is the heart of winter. The true "dead of winter" from a climo perspective, most likely to have snow on the ground, is the last week of January into the first week of February. I consider the heart of winter mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Anyway you slice it, we arent there and wont be there for several weeks but its coming. For the Chicago to Detroit corridor, snowfall is still above normal (as is snowcover) to date, so if no new snow in the next week equals unmitigated disaster, I must wonder what the probably 65% of prior years that featured less winter to that point were called . The snow season to this point is climatologically only 25% complete. Snowpack is present in the northwoods but not as deep as it should be, in most places, at this point. Lastly, weak La Ninas are varied across the board, not usually cold/snowy. Here, I would consider some good weak La Nina winters to be 1964-65, 1974-75, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2000-01 and some not so good weak La Nina winters to be 1954-55, 1971-72, 1995-96, 2011-12. The two that I left out, which did not strike me as good or terrible, were 1950-51 (a generally good winter region-wide) and 1967-68 (a generally terrible winter region-wide). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm just glad that we bagged a decent December around here, being that I'm someone who prefers a front-loaded winter. Would've been nice to have some snow falling on Christmas and for it to keep rolling into January. I don't have to tell you it has been a disaster here. Missed to the north and south with storms. I don't see any relief over the next week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, KokomoWX said: This would be a kick in the pants. Whether or not that happens, it's a perfect depiction of what has been happening the last couple of winters, (except extend those heavier snow totals down through about the northern 1/4 of IL thru OH). the I-70 corridor from IL thru Pittsburgh has become the highway to hell for winter weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 hours ago, KokomoWX said: This would be a kick in the pants. Is that a middle finger sticking up into PA as this thing passes by? Not sure but looks like it from here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/1/2017 at 11:05 AM, ConvectiveIA said: I might be fixin to try moving to a snow-belt in the UP of Michigan for next winter. I'm in the beginning stages of buying a property in the UP. I can leave my sleds there and drive my Prius up when I want to spend time there. Probably wouldn't go to the place outside of Nov through April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'm in the beginning stages of buying a property in the UP. I can leave my sleds there and drive my Prius up when I want to spend time there. Probably wouldn't go to the place outside of Nov through April 1st. What part you looking at? Western UP (Keweenaw or Huron Mtn area) or Eastern Michigan (Grand Marias / Paradise) areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Rain--->cold--->rain --->cold to sum up the 0z GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Biggest problem with snowy Decembers, most of the time it leads to a mild January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Sigh. It is supposed to be winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, KokomoWX said: Sigh. It is supposed to be winter. I'd actually take that over 15 degrees and bare grass. Nothing to lose (melt) anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I'm obviously not going to get any help from snow cover during this week's cold blast, so I went out and collected more oak leaves this weekend to add insulation to a couple non-hardy plants I try to overwinter in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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