2016-2017 Autumn/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

[Hoosier]

Tropical Tidbits now has point and click soundings.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm sorry to hear about the poor stretch at Toronto but I wouldn't worry about it being a long term trend, as as you stated Detroit and Boston have done well. But I must say hallelujah for them getting rid of the nipper! It was the dumbest idea and made ZERO sense. 

[ConfusedKitten]

London hasn't done too well in recent years either:

Average is 76.5 inches

'09-'10: 108.7 cm / 42.8 inches
'10-'11: 306.1 cm / 120.5 inches
'11-'12: 132.2 cm / 52.0 inches
'12-'13: 140.5 cm / 55.3 inches
'13-'14: 242.5 cm / 95.5 inches
'14-'15: 158.0 cm / 62.2 inches
'15-'16: 165.5 cm / 65.2 inches
'16-'17 YTD: 162.6 cm / 64.0 inches

Obviously I can't complain too much because we still crack 50 pretty consistently, but 2 above average years out of the last 8 is kinda depressing. Maybe we're still in debt from '10-'11 lol, that winter was incredible.

[cyclone77]

On 3/21/2017 at 11:10 AM, Chinook said:

Apparently the 4km NAM has been canceled and the experimental 3km NAM is now operational as NAM-HIRES on NCEP's web site.

Kind of sad to see it go.  It actually did better with convection Sunday night compared to the 3km and HRRR.  

 

[Chinook]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Kind of sad to see it go.  It actually did better with convection Sunday night compared to the 3km and HRRR.  

Sometimes the 00z NAM 4km had a really good 24hr forecast of convection, approximate areas of thunderstorms and storm intensity. It was nice to compare the 4km NAM, 3km NAM, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NSSL WRF. Now I guess we have only 4 out of those 5.

[roberie]

On 3/15/2017 at 4:00 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

Season total snowfall.  Winter began with north vs south and it is ending that way.  45-50 inches of snow has fallen in far north-central Iowa while only 3-5 inches has fallen in nw Missouri into sw Iowa.  I believe this is two consecutive winters with 40+ inches over northern Iowa and single-digit snowfall in southern Iowa.  Both winters, I ended up on the low side of the sharp gradient.  My avg snowfall is about 30 inches.  Last winter I received 20 inches and this winter 17.9 inches.

 

This map appears to be about correct at least for my area.  we had about 110" in the snowbelt just south of Erie PA.

Good bit less than normal and a horrible February for the ski resorts.  Pknpk is closing after this weekend.

Oh,  and hi.  new guy here.

[cyclone77]

7 hours ago, roberie said:

This map appears to be about correct at least for my area.  we had about 110" in the snowbelt just south of Erie PA.

Good bit less than normal and a horrible February for the ski resorts.  Pknpk is closing after this weekend.

Oh,  and hi.  new guy here.

Welcome, from a fellow resident of Erie.  

[Stebo]

Whoa a like button now?

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Whoa a like button now?

Indeed.  The bane of unpopular posters' existence.

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Indeed.  The bane of unpopular posters' existence.

Haha, all they will need to do is make better posts then right?

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Haha, all they will need to do is make better posts then right?

True.  There's probably still potential for it to be abused (based on what I've witnessed on other sites) but getting outraged over a like feature on a message board is not really worth it.

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

True.  There's probably still potential for it to be abused (based on what I've witnessed on other sites) but getting outraged over a like feature on a message board is not really worth it.

*cough* DBM *cough*

haha

[snowstormcanuck]

On 2017-03-21 at 5:45 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I'm sorry to hear about the poor stretch at Toronto but I wouldn't worry about it being a long term trend, as as you stated Detroit and Boston have done well. But I must say hallelujah for them getting rid of the nipper! It was the dumbest idea and made ZERO sense. 

You know when you pour a soda into a glass and the fizz bubbles begin to disappear almost at random. That's the analogy I use when I think about the effects GW has on our regional climate. We were unlucky and one of the first to have our snow bubble popped. You've been luckier, but your time will come.

Not that I'm rooting for that. Obviously, I hope we can stop or curtail climate change (at least the anthropogenic part of it). But if not, eventually, inevitably, all bubbles will be burst. 

[osubrett2]

On 3/13/2017 at 11:19 AM, osubrett2 said:

With today's snow chances plummeting for CMH, I decided to pull historical figures to see where 2016-17 will stand for snow. Currently at 8.1" for the season. 1-2" is in the forecast, but that is likely to bust. This season would stand a 8th least snowfall if it were to end today. Looks like we have a good chance to finish in the Top 10. Here is the list:

CMH picked up 1.2" over a 5 day span (3/13-3/17) bringing the 2016-17 total to 9.3", which is still 8th least all-time. Barring a huge cold snap and perfect setup, I don't see anymore snowfall for the season.

1.) 1918-19: 3.2"

2.) 1878-79: 4.3"

3.) 1941-42: 4.9"

4.) 1931-32: 5.3"

5.) 1949-50: 6.5"

6.) 1996-97: 7.7"

7.) 1934-35: 8.0"

    2016-17: 9.3"

8.) 2001-02: 10.1"

9.) 1896-97: 10.3"

     1997-98: 10.3"

[Chambana]

2 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

CMH picked up 1.2" over a 5 day span (3/13-3/17) bringing the 2016-17 total to 9.3", which is still 8th least all-time. Barring a huge cold snap and perfect setup, I don't see anymore snowfall for the season.

1.) 1918-19: 3.2"

2.) 1878-79: 4.3"

3.) 1941-42: 4.9"

4.) 1931-32: 5.3"

5.) 1949-50: 6.5"

6.) 1996-97: 7.7"

7.) 1934-35: 8.0"

    2016-17: 9.3"

8.) 2001-02: 10.1"

9.) 1896-97: 10.3"

     1997-98: 10.3"

 

Some real stinkers in there for Columbus. 

[slow poke]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

 

Some real stinkers in there for Columbus. 

Number 6 I find strange because it was such a great winter for a big chunk of Michigan. Parts of northern lower MI had there snowiest season then. 

 

1.) 1918-19: 3.2"

2.) 1878-79: 4.3"

3.) 1941-42: 4.9"

4.) 1931-32: 5.3"

5.) 1949-50: 6.5"

6.) 1996-97: 7.7"

7.) 1934-35: 8.0"

    2016-17: 9.3"

8.) 2001-02: 10.1"

9.) 1896-97: 10.3"

     1997-98: 10.3"

[Chambana]

58 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Number 6 I find strange because it was such a great winter for a big chunk of Michigan. Parts of northern lower MI had there snowiest season then. 

 

1.) 1918-19: 3.2"

2.) 1878-79: 4.3"

3.) 1941-42: 4.9"

4.) 1931-32: 5.3"

5.) 1949-50: 6.5"

6.) 1996-97: 7.7"

7.) 1934-35: 8.0"

    2016-17: 9.3"

8.) 2001-02: 10.1"

9.) 1896-97: 10.3"

     1997-98: 10.3"

 

#1 is also very intriguing, the winter of 1918-1919 was historically bad, but the winter of 1917-1918 was a hard hard hitting winter. Really goes to show, extremes happened way back then. 

[HighTechEE]

1 hour ago, slow poke said:

Number 6 I find strange because it was such a great winter for a big chunk of Michigan. Parts of northern lower MI had there snowiest season then. 

 

1.) 1918-19: 3.2"

2.) 1878-79: 4.3"

3.) 1941-42: 4.9"

4.) 1931-32: 5.3"

5.) 1949-50: 6.5"

6.) 1996-97: 7.7"

7.) 1934-35: 8.0"

    2016-17: 9.3"

8.) 2001-02: 10.1"

9.) 1896-97: 10.3"

     1997-98: 10.3"

Maybe you are thinking of '95-'96 winter as I think Jan '96 was the last time KDAY ever recorded over 2ft of total snow in one month.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, slow poke said:

Number 6 I find strange because it was such a great winter for a big chunk of Michigan. Parts of northern lower MI had there snowiest season then. 

 

 

Not much different than this year:

 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

Not much different than this year:

 

Remember the days when Tim and me were in LAF racking up good seasons/respectable storms.  Reality has come back to bite LAF in the past few years.

[slow poke]

8 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Maybe you are thinking of '95-'96 winter as I think Jan '96 was the last time KDAY ever recorded over 2ft of total snow in one month.

95-96 was also a great snow season in northern MI, the Soo had their snowiest season then. Both 95-96 and 96-97 were great snow seasons up north then in 97-98 it made up for it with a turd of a winter 

[XfireLOW]

17 hours ago, slow poke said:

95-96 was also a great snow season in northern MI, the Soo had their snowiest season then. Both 95-96 and 96-97 were great snow seasons up north then in 97-98 it made up for it with a turd of a winter 

95-96 and 96-97 were both great back to back winters for snow(depth) lovers in Minnesota as well.  Then the next three winters, were turds.

Now after the good winters of 2012-13 (backloaded), and 2013-14 we have had a similar three year stretch a poor winters. 

This year definitely had the potential to be a great winter.  Looking at that seasonal snowfall map you can see snowfall wasn't the problem, but the late freeze up and record warm stretches in Jan and Feb killed any chances of long lived deep snowcover.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/23/2017 at 6:16 AM, snowstormcanuck said:

You know when you pour a soda into a glass and the fizz bubbles begin to disappear almost at random. That's the analogy I use when I think about the effects GW has on our regional climate. We were unlucky and one of the first to have our snow bubble popped. You've been luckier, but your time will come.

Not that I'm rooting for that. Obviously, I hope we can stop or curtail climate change (at least the anthropogenic part of it). But if not, eventually, inevitably, all bubbles will be burst. 

 

Interesting analogy ("pop" *cough* ), but it seems like just terrible luck for Toronto. With increasing precipitation and the Great Lakes nearby, I am convinced that I will not see a trend towards low snow winters (1940s-esque) in my lifetime. Now, a rogue terrible winter here and there, sure, but there is absolutely nothing pointing towards a decrease in snow. Every single facet of snow climatology locally in the 21st century, from storms, to total snowfall, to snowcover, has been much better than the 20th century climo. Ive studied our local climate/trends a lot more than shows up in a random stats post I make, but I can tell you that worrying about snowfall decreasing to below longterm normals is not even on the map at this point. We have a ways down to go to even get BACK to longterm normal. Two mild winters in a row thanks in large part to a record strong Nino last year (and its lag effects this year) which produced SLIGHTLY below normal snow after a decade of record heavy snow is not what I consider a downward trend lol. Come see me in a decade if we spend the better part of the decade in sub-30 inch winters, THEN Ill start to worry. Im sure when we do have a real low snow winter, itll be because we are the overdue screw hole, ala 1995-96 (meaning i expect others in the region to do well that winter).

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Interesting analogy ("pop" *cough* ), but it seems like just terrible luck for Toronto. With increasing precipitation and the Great Lakes nearby, I am convinced that I will not see a trend towards low snow winters (1940s-esque) in my lifetime. Now, a rogue terrible winter here and there, sure, but there is absolutely nothing pointing towards a decrease in snow. Every single facet of snow climatology locally in the 21st century, from storms, to total snowfall, to snowcover, has been much better than the 20th century climo. Ive studied our local climate/trends a lot more than shows up in a random stats post I make, but I can tell you that worrying about snowfall decreasing to below longterm normals is not even on the map at this point. We have a ways down to go to even get BACK to longterm normal. Two mild winters in a row thanks in large part to a record strong Nino last year (and its lag effects this year) which produced SLIGHTLY below normal snow after a decade of record heavy snow is not what I consider a downward trend lol. Come see me in a decade if we spend the better part of the decade in sub-30 inch winters, THEN Ill start to worry. Im sure when we do have a real low snow winter, itll be because we are the overdue screw hole, ala 1995-96 (meaning i expect others in the region to do well that winter).

Natural variability plays a big role, so that and simply being as far north as you are may mean that you are good for quite a while.  I think a bigger concern would be in areas farther south into the Ohio Valley as that is already not much of a wintry area to begin with. 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Natural variability plays a big role, so that and simply being as far north as you are may mean that you are good for quite a while.  I think a bigger concern would be in areas farther south into the Ohio Valley as that is already not much of a wintry area to begin with. 

I do not follow snow climo well to my south much but I do seem to recall hearing quite a few times lately about "record" or "rare" snowfalls in southern climes. Even if a worrisome trend does emerge at some point, it will be hard to tell if it's cyclical or climate change. I mean we went a 30-40 year period in the heart of the 20th century plagued by terrible winters with just a few good ones thrown in. Times were better before that ugly time and they got better after. Then of course, since the start of records we have had the occasional terrible winter. I mean there are a few winters between 1880-1920 that are mind blowingly warm and snowless across the entire region. Anamlously severe or easy winters, those are the ones i research outside Detroit. You can rest assured that any kind of those winters, should they happen again, will be constantly attributed to climate change, even if the winter before and after are normal or severe  (as often happened with the above said winters in the late 1800s and early 1900s).

 

There is no question that the last few winters have been trying for winter lovers and I really hope next year hits the sub hard. But there's also no question that Detroit seems to "luck out" whether it's a good winter or a bad winter. The warm temperature anomalies of the last 2 winters have done little to mar snowfall totals. Last winter almost all of SE MI north of Detroit finished snowier than normal, and Detroit south finished at about 80-85% of normal. This winter was actually worse as a whole for SE MI, with most places slightly below normal (well below in the thumb) though the Detroit- Ann Arbor corridor actually did slightly better than last year, and will finish near to just slightly below normal. Then in 2014-15 while snowfall wasn't that much above normal we were buried in what would have been record snow depth had it not been for the winter before, 2013-14, which was like the entire midwest won the lottery but we won the grand prize. Our most severe winter on record and then some (while records go to 1874 we have plenty of accounts for decades before. We will NEVER see another winter like that again, of THAT I'm convinced! 2012-13 we had slightly above normal snow when much of the region did not. Let's just forget and bury 2011-12 (though we still couldn't even crack the top 20 least snowy list)..then 2010-11, 2008-09, 2007-08 all placed in Detroit's top 10 snowiest winters list, and even 2009-10 was snowier than normal. So you see, after a lackluster decade in the 1990s when winters were less impressive anyway and in addition Detroit was screwed far more than jackpotted, Ma Nature turned on the snow machines in the 21st century, really revving them up the last decade or so.

[snowstormcanuck]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Interesting analogy ("pop" *cough* ), but it seems like just terrible luck for Toronto. With increasing precipitation and the Great Lakes nearby, I am convinced that I will not see a trend towards low snow winters (1940s-esque) in my lifetime. Now, a rogue terrible winter here and there, sure, but there is absolutely nothing pointing towards a decrease in snow. Every single facet of snow climatology locally in the 21st century, from storms, to total snowfall, to snowcover, has been much better than the 20th century climo. Ive studied our local climate/trends a lot more than shows up in a random stats post I make, but I can tell you that worrying about snowfall decreasing to below longterm normals is not even on the map at this point. We have a ways down to go to even get BACK to longterm normal. Two mild winters in a row thanks in large part to a record strong Nino last year (and its lag effects this year) which produced SLIGHTLY below normal snow after a decade of record heavy snow is not what I consider a downward trend lol. Come see me in a decade if we spend the better part of the decade in sub-30 inch winters, THEN Ill start to worry. Im sure when we do have a real low snow winter, itll be because we are the overdue screw hole, ala 1995-96 (meaning i expect others in the region to do well that winter).

I'm glad things have worked out for you but I don't think you can merely use your past good fortune with snow as a predictor of future good fortune. For all we know these past two mediocre winters are the beginning of the slide. But it makes no sense to argue about it. Let's just see how the next decade unfolds.

We call it pop here too (mostly) but I didn't want to say "pop bubble popped". lol

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'm glad things have worked out for you but I don't think you can merely use your past good fortune with snow as a predictor of future good fortune. For all we know these past two mediocre winters are the beginning of the slide. But it makes no sense to argue about it. Let's just see how the next decade unfolds.

We call it pop here too (mostly) but I didn't want to say "pop bubble popped". lol

Fair statement. Although I will say that I wasn't implying that I expected our above normal snow stretch to keep continuing it was really more so that I do not foresee us getting into an extended period of below longterm normal snow. The 20th century average snowfall was 40" with 50 days of 1"+ snowcover. The 21st century average to date is 49" with 53 days of 1"+ snowcover. The average for the last decade has been 54" with 55 days of 1"+ snowcover. Total snowfall the last 2 winters hasn't been nearly as bad as many other areas (only slightly below normal, this year MBY actually is normal, DTW a few inches less). But snowcover has been below normal by 2 weeks this year and almost 3 weeks last year (but again despite these snowcover still running above average this century). Naturally I don't have stats for other areas so readily but no way can we discount the record smashing nino and it's lag effects. In the end though we can have a friendly debate all we want the only answer will come as the next decade plays out. 

[hawkeye_wx]

With winter now over, the midwest/lakes forums sure got quiet.

[beavis1729]

After the horror show of the past two winters, I was poking around Chicago's monthly F-6 climo pages for 2013-14, just to remember what cold and snow look like.

While 2013-14 was a good winter relative to the typical crappy winter in Chicago, my review of the numbers reminded me why Chicago's climo is so frustrating for those who enjoy winter. 

In particular:  looking at the technical numbers, January 2014 had all of the good attributes relative to normal (-8.1F temp departure, 33.7" of snow which is about 3x normal).  On paper, it looks great.  However, January 2014 only had 10 days with a snow depth of 6" or greater.  That is just shocking to me.  If you go north up to 45N, you'll find that even the worst Januaries have 6" on the ground for most of the month...much less 10 of the 31 days.  ORD is close to 42N...not very far from 45N as the crow flies. 

What point am I trying to make?  Even the best winters at 42N can't compete with 90% of the winters at 45N.  It's tough to be on the wrong side of the Midwest "winter gradient".  Another example...parts of southern IA only had about 6" of snowfall for the entire 2016-17 winter...whereas northern IA had around 50" (still nothing to write home about...but at least they salvaged decent snowfall in an incredibly mild winter). 

Here's to Winter 2017-18.