Powerball Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: That's one possibility. Also may cause issues with sfc dews/moisture mixing out and just in general may result in high temps tending to overperform. Not that big a deal yet but something to watch. All I'm concerned about is getting a healthy EML (thus steep mid-level lapse rates) far enough NE for all of us to get in on plenty of severe weather action. Moisture return is a secondary concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 hours ago, Stebo said: As long as the area near the river up to the Ohio River stays near normal and continues to get periodic rain, we will be fine with moisture returns. I do agree with Indystorm though about dryline extending further east. If we were to remain in an active pattern going into next month and April, things could really get bumpy around here. The continued western trough we have been seeing is a good sign as well. Having spent the last 5 1/2 years in North Texas but being from this area, Ohio to be exact I honestly never knew a dry line was a factor this far north. Thankfully though I don't imagine a dry line event up here being as bad as down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Anyone got Dr. Cohen's adresss? I have 3 dozen eggs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 44 minutes ago, NTXYankee said: Having spent the last 5 1/2 years in North Texas but being from this area, Ohio to be exact I honestly never knew a dry line was a factor this far north. Thankfully though I don't imagine a dry line event up here being as bad as down there. Actually some of the more prolific events have had a dry line extension as far northeast as the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 38 minutes ago, Stebo said: Actually some of the more prolific events have had a dry line extension as far northeast as the Great Lakes. Yep... and if not the Lakes, then at least the Mississippi River area. 4/3/56, 4/11/65, 4/3/74, 4/19/96, 3/2/2012 all had drylines or dryline type features extending much farther east than usual, and there are probably others if you look hard enough. The 4/3/56 example is one of the more striking ones. I mean, this is pretty ridiculous for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Let's see how Chicago messes this one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Let's see how Chicago messes this one up place your bets on a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Friend of mine sent me this, not sure how accurate it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 hours ago, vortex said: Friend of mine sent me this, not sure how accurate it is. 100% accurate. Here is the page, you can make other plots with it too https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=92 Link to that specific graphic above. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=92&phenomena=WS&significance=W&edate=2017%2F02%2F14&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 hours ago, vortex said: Friend of mine sent me this, not sure how accurate it is. I'm going to print this, laminate it, and keep it in my wallet as my official license to b**ch, whine, and moan. It is interesting though. You can clearly see which storm track has been absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: I'm going to print this, laminate it, and keep it in my wallet as my official license to b**ch, whine, and moan. It is interesting though. You can clearly see which storm track has been absent. I wish we could see a county by county breakdown of this. Pretty sure we (Franklin Co.) have to go back 2 years to see our last WS Warning... 2/28/15-3/1/15. If that was only an Advisory, then for sure the storm the week before, 2/21/15 had a Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: I wish we could see a county by county breakdown of this. Pretty sure we (Franklin Co.) have to go back 2 years to see our last WS Warning... 2/28/15-3/1/15. If that was only an Advisory, then for sure the storm the week before, 2/21/15 had a Warning. Great point. Franklin and probably Delaware counties are probably over 600 days easily. I'm thinking specifically of that late season southern slider a couple winters back that had ILN southern counties under warnings but completely whiffed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 54 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: On the positive side, Ohio has had 3 -departure met winters and 4 +departure met winters this decade. We are due for a balancing next winter eh? Preliminary data indicates another El Nino next Winter, which depending on the strength can be good or bad for the sub-forum. We'll see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 20 hours ago, Angrysummons said: I think one thing this winter has proved, SAI is heavily driven by October AO. Hopefully we will get a raging positive October AO this year and low Siberian snowcover just to see what happens during the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 21 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yep... and if not the Lakes, then at least the Mississippi River area. 4/3/56, 4/11/65, 4/3/74, 4/19/96, 3/2/2012 all had drylines or dryline type features extending much farther east than usual, and there are probably others if you look hard enough. The 4/3/56 example is one of the more striking ones. I mean, this is pretty ridiculous for this part of the country. Wow, that's extremely impressive. Looks like a TX panhandle map. Would love to see something like this happen again. 21 degree dew at Peoria, very strong southwesterly winds. No doubt some excellent mixing to well above the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: Let's see how Chicago messes this one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 ***WARNING*** THE FOLLOWING POST CONTAINS GRAPHIC JB HYPE. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED So I watched his video today, curious to see how he was going to spin his way out of the Feb torch that was suppose to be a historically cold Feb according to him. So he continues to spew the 500 maps and how he nailed that and was disappointed that it ended up resulting in opposite surface conditions then he expected. Blah blah blah. But then in classic JB form, he pulls out the euro ens 15 day 500 and says, "this is exactly like March '93 when the super storm hit...except it looks like it would be further west". Not kidding, he actually pulled out a March '93 analog. To his credit, he did say he was apprehensive to bring it up since nothing has been going as he expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 50 minutes ago, buckeye said: ***WARNING*** THE FOLLOWING POST CONTAINS GRAPHIC JB HYPE. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED So I watched his video today, curious to see how he was going to spin his way out of the Feb torch that was suppose to be a historically cold Feb according to him. So he continues to spew the 500 maps and how he nailed that and was disappointed that it ended up resulting in opposite surface conditions then he expected. Blah blah blah. But then in classic JB form, he pulls out the euro ens 15 day 500 and says, "this is exactly like March '93 when the super storm hit...except it looks like it would be further west". Not kidding, he actually pulled out a March '93 analog. To his credit, he did say he was apprehensive to bring it up since nothing has been going as he expected. I'd be down for '93 west. That one was a particularly painful miss for CMH, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeye said: ***WARNING*** THE FOLLOWING POST CONTAINS GRAPHIC JB HYPE. READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED So I watched his video today, curious to see how he was going to spin his way out of the Feb torch that was suppose to be a historically cold Feb according to him. So he continues to spew the 500 maps and how he nailed that and was disappointed that it ended up resulting in opposite surface conditions then he expected. Blah blah blah. But then in classic JB form, he pulls out the euro ens 15 day 500 and says, "this is exactly like March '93 when the super storm hit...except it looks like it would be further west". Not kidding, he actually pulled out a March '93 analog. To his credit, he did say he was apprehensive to bring it up since nothing has been going as he expected. I stopped following Joe when he left accuweather, but he was kind of crazy then too but seemed somewhat legit in his nonsense. It would not surprise me to see a freak snowstorm in March here. I remember 2008, my grandfather passed away and when I left Columbus it was 75, that weekend it was rain in PA got to Ohio and full on blizzard. Took me 10 hours to get back instead of 5, but it was literally gone within a few days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd be down for '93 west. That one was a particularly painful miss for CMH, right? If I remember correctly at one point Ohio was in line to get clobbered but ended up farther east. Extreme east Ohio still got hammered and back this way I believe I got 3-6". Columbus was probably closer to if not a bit more than 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 55 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd be down for '93 west. That one was a particularly painful miss for CMH, right? Yes it was a heart breaker. We were always suppose to get whiffed but at the last minute the NWS issued a Blizzard warning for us the morning of. I lived on the west side of Columbus back then and we got a powdery wind swept 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 33 minutes ago, NTXYankee said: I stopped following Joe when he left accuweather, but he was kind of crazy then too but seemed somewhat legit in his nonsense. It would not surprise me to see a freak snowstorm in March here. I remember 2008, my grandfather passed away and when I left Columbus it was 75, that weekend it was rain in PA got to Ohio and full on blizzard. Took me 10 hours to get back instead of 5, but it was literally gone within a few days afterwards. Actually that snow remained for close to two weeks. It got very cold after that storm and with the snow on the ground and temps, it was one of the most wintry Marchs I recall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 35 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: If I remember correctly at one point Ohio was in line to get clobbered but ended up farther east. Extreme east Ohio still got hammered and back this way I believe I got 3-6". Columbus was probably closer to if not a bit more than 6". There were some brief model runs a week out that had it running the apps, but for the most part it was predominantly modeled very well 6 or 7 days out as a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 What a disaster! Looks like Day After Tomorrow, besides the shear size and intensity, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 On 12/11/2016 at 4:16 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 2016 was the most god-awful, boring, bland, monotonous year in weather I think I've ever experienced. It took my teetering interest in weather and pushed it right off the ledge. Thanks, ***hole. How did I miss this gem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 On 12/15/2016 at 3:43 PM, Torchageddon said: That's what 2014 did to me. I can't help but be in awe when I think back to that ultimate festering turd of a year that I don't think I'll ever get over. I wish I had a time forwarding device for that year to jump from 2013 to 2015, even if it means I miss an entire year of my life. That's how satanic it was. This year wasn't all that great for weather but I loved the extremely long summer that was possibly the warmest on record. I couldn't get enough of that good s**t. This fall was fantastic, not far off from 2007. The main problem was how horribly boring the weather was, Spring severe had no major outbreaks, thunderstorms were beyond a joke this year and I've never seen it this quiet ever, very short-lived winter events that didn't really keep me tuned in. Right now for example I'm getting screwed over by the LES bands where a hour drive north is LES heaven. When is it all going to turn around? No disagreement with you there. 2014 played a not-so insignificant role in zapping my overall interest in weather as well, especially for winter. Hell, the only severe weather event of interest was Detroit's historic flood (and flash flooding technically isn't severe weather). You know that year was bad when even awful years like 2013 and 2015 seemed good in comparison. And yes, the lack of severe weather in 2016 is quite frankly the only complaint I have with regards to last Summer. It was easily the most boring seasons I've ever lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 3 hours ago, Powerball said: No disagreement with you there. 2014 played a not-so insignificant role in zapping my overall interest in weather as well, especially for winter. Hell, the only severe weather event of interest was Detroit's historic flood (and flash flooding technically isn't severe weather). You know that year was bad when even awful years like 2013 and 2015 seemed good in comparison. And yes, the lack of severe weather in 2016 is quite frankly the only complaint I have with regards to last Summer. It was easily the most boring seasons I've ever lived through. How did 2014 zap your interest in winter weather? Snowstorm after snowstorm, snowiest winter on record!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: How did 2014 zap your interest in winter weather? Snowstorm after snowstorm, snowiest winter on record!!?? It was an extremely long winter for one (which technically started in November and didn't end until April). I also can't stand extreme cold, which 2013-2014 had more than its fair share of. Lastly, having a consistently deep snowpack does nothing for me (I find it to be a nuisance more than anything, especially if it's snow on top of snow). The only good thing about it is that I can say I survived the worst winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Powerball said: It was an extremely long winter for one (which technically started in November and didn't end until April). I also can't stand extreme cold, which 2013-2014 had more than its fair share of. Lastly, having a consistently deep snowpack does nothing for me (I find it to be a nuisance more than anything, especially if it's snow on top of snow). The only good thing about it is that I can say I survived the worst winter ever. Your nightmare is my dream come true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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