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2016-2017 Autumn/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

HillsdaleMIWeather

By HillsdaleMIWeather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

So euro shows 60 degrees approaching Chicago on day 10....in front of a central US cutter.

So where's this pattern change?  5 or 6 days of cold where we all chase some anemic disturbance hoping for a couple inches before we torch again.

JB, who has been crowing about a brutal FEB is even nervous.  Today he said he's afraid that what he's seeing on the models and indices would be more than a speed bump in his forecast (cold FEB), it would be a land mine.

 

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ConfusedKitten

ConfusedKitten

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, buckeye said:

So euro shows 60 degrees approaching Chicago on day 10....in front of a central US cutter.

So where's this pattern change?  5 or 6 days of cold where we all chase some anemic disturbance hoping for a couple inches before we torch again.

JB, who has been crowing about a brutal FEB is even nervous.  Today he said he's afraid that what he's seeing on the models and indices would be more than a speed bump in his forecast (cold FEB), it would be a land mine.

 

 

Well I just hope the GFS is right about this one, doesn't have much of the subforum crack the freezing mark with that storm and the upper level pattern looks much nicer. I agree that the short term isn't going to be that great though, very little chance for significant snow except in the lake belts. I'm not even expecting much in London, looks like it'll be more of a WNW pattern to favor Huron and Grey County (again).

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, buckeye said:

So euro shows 60 degrees approaching Chicago on day 10....in front of a central US cutter.

So where's this pattern change?  5 or 6 days of cold where we all chase some anemic disturbance hoping for a couple inches before we torch again.

JB, who has been crowing about a brutal FEB is even nervous.  Today he said he's afraid that what he's seeing on the models and indices would be more than a speed bump in his forecast (cold FEB), it would be a land mine.

 

And the 12z op euro is alone in that depiction. Latest cfs weeklies are cold cold cold for Feb.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

In light of the recent High Risk in the South, here are the only times when SPC has issued a High Risk for NW Ohio

October 24, 2001 (25 tornadoes, 560 wind reports, 119 hail reports, one F3 tornado in NW Ohio)

October 26, 2010 (60 tornadoes, 373 wind reports, 16 hail reports, three tornadoes in NW Ohio)

June 12, 2013 (21 tornadoes, 252 wind reports , 177 hail reports) High risk issued because of the expectation of a derecho. (6 tornadoes in NW Ohio)

Nov 17 2013 (74 tornadoes, 440 wind reports, 62 hail reports) (6 tornadoes in NW Ohio, one extremely close to where I used to live)

notable: A high risk was issued on May 31 1998 for the Northeastern US. (39 tornadoes).  One F0 tornado in Putnam County, OH. Some tornadoes, wind and many hail reports in NE Indiana and Northern Ohio.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Chinook said:

In light of the recent High Risk in the South, here are the only times when SPC has issued a High Risk for NW Ohio

October 24, 2001 (25 tornadoes, 560 wind reports, 119 hail reports, one F3 tornado in NW Ohio)

October 26, 2010 (60 tornadoes, 373 wind reports, 16 hail reports, three tornadoes in NW Ohio)

June 12, 2013 (21 tornadoes, 252 wind reports , 177 hail reports) High risk issued because of the expectation of a derecho. (6 tornadoes in NW Ohio)

Nov 17 2013 (74 tornadoes, 440 wind reports, 62 hail reports) (6 tornadoes in NW Ohio, one extremely close to where I used to live)

notable: A high risk was issued on May 31 1998 for the Northeastern US. (39 tornadoes).  One F0 tornado in Putnam County, OH. Some tornadoes, wind and many hail reports in NE Indiana and Northern Ohio.

You could potentially add 5/30/04 and 11/15/05, but they only clipped a bit of northwestern OH and I'm not sure how you're defining the area.

A couple pre-2000 occurrences are 6/2/90 and 6/17/92.  Data is sketchy farther back so there may have been others.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

I tried to make my best guess based on the Wikipedia page that had thumbnails of many of the High Risk outlooks, and descriptions of affected area. I remember chatting with some of you (Hoosier) on May 30, 2004 on Wright Weather. The High Risk reached to Dayton OH and vicinity for the later outlook that day.

11/15/05 - 49 tornadoes, NW Ohio had basically no severe damage.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Yeah you guys down there from STL to Cinci really have been getting shafted. I can't even imagine a winter like that.

Yeah, thought for sure this was running a record, but it turns out there were a couple of abysmally low snow winters right before and during the start of the Dust Bowl here and another before the 1954 blockbuster drought.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

50 years since the great snowstorm of 1967.  Still stands as the greatest snowfall in Chicago history.  Records are made to be broken though and it's a record that I feel is likely to be broken in my lifetime... it's not hugely ahead of the 2nd-5th place storms and there's been a few cracks at it in more recent years.

http://www.weather.gov/lot/67blizzard

I would give anything to see the record broke from this storm here. Gonna be very very hard to do here atleast.. With the lake there you have to imagine the odd's are much higher of breaking the record there.

 

Here is the GRR write up about it.. With maps and totals as well.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20170126

 

Jackpot for the storm anywhere was Gull Lake with 30.2" inches! Pretty insane for these parts!

 

 

Oh and Hi!

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, thought for sure this was running a record, but it turns out there were a couple of abysmally low snow winters right before and during the start of the Dust Bowl here and another before the 1954 blockbuster drought.

I am a bit surprised how dry it has been down your way, it seems like every direction away from STL has done better in the precipitation department this winter.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, thought for sure this was running a record, but it turns out there were a couple of abysmally low snow winters right before and during the start of the Dust Bowl here and another before the 1954 blockbuster drought.

I cant imagine that either....I average slightly better than twice you, but we haven had a sub-20" winter in almost 50 years here (alltime low is 12.9" in 1936-37). STL latitude puts it in a unique spot wrt snow, because it is not like a southern city where it MAY snow once every few years, it is a city where you EXPECT snow and have to have equipment to be prepared, but there is the outside chance that you can go a winter with almost no snow (as seen in the 1930s and 1950s).

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

PIA snow totals so far......

6 inches ...and 4.2 of that fell on one day way back on 12-5

8 inches below normal for this time of year

no other system has brought over an inch of snow besides the 12-5 system

with the massive .1 that fell yesterday that gives PIA a total of 6 days with any measurable snow

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osubrett2

osubrett2

Posted
Posted

CMH for the season sits at 6.3", which is -7.6" behind the seasonal to date average of 13.9". Or 45%.

Measurable snow on 7 days this season with a measurable snowpack for a whopping 5 days.

12/09 - 0.4"

12/10 - 0.1"

12/11 - 1.1"

12/13 - 3.2"

12/19 - 0.4"

12/30 - 0.2"

01/05 - 0.9"

 

Season to date, 2016/2017 is on par with 2015/2016 in terms of futility for Central Ohio.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Since the Mon-Tues clipper looks to miss just northeast, it looks like we'll have to wait all the way till next weekend for the next shot of something other than wind-blown flurries.  That will make 7+ weeks with nothing other than weak rainers, and an occasional flurry.  Winter is becoming my least favorite period for weather from an enthusiast standpoint.  Waaaay too many long stretches with absolutely nothing to follow.  Since the 11/12 winter (other than 13/14) the winters have had some god-awful stretches of zero interest from a tracking standpoint.  At least with the normally benign Sep through Nov period you can spend time outside in some very nice weather.  

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Caught this pine martin on my driveway this morning digging for apples. He must of decided he didn't care for that one, as he dropped it and ran up the tree and picked one, carried it down the tree and ran off. It's hard to even get a good picture of a pine martin as they are constantly moving. For their size, they're a formidable adversary if backed into a corner.  They'll chew your leg off.

12471588_1126639957369902_409720498952892962_o.jpg

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I don't know is anyone is interested or has already viewed this, but MetEd put out several videos from the GOES-R launch workshop for broadcast mets back in November. It is actually several hours of video from various speakers, but is very interesting. I am especially intrigued by the section on the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). Since there's not much to track in realtime, this is a great way to learn about GOES-R.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/satmet/goesr_broadcast_met_launch_wkshp/print.php

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Okay, January 31st and I'm officially ready to call it for those of us south of I 80.

I know Josh will say, "But wait!!.....There's more!!!" EVERY time we get a glimmer of hope in the medium range, it turns into strung out POS or a hard cutter and we end up with stratiform rain. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow in a couple of days, I will be looking for a good ground hog recipe.

gfs_T2m_ncus_31.png

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Okay, January 31st and I'm officially ready to call it for those of us south of I 80.

I know Josh will say, "But wait!!.....There's more!!!" EVERY time we get a glimmer of hope in the medium range, it turns into strung out POS or a hard cutter and we end up with stratiform rain. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow in a couple of days, I will be looking for a good ground hog recipe.

I'm with ya brother.

Euro gives us here in central OH almost 5" of rain next week as a front hangs up and a train sets up...  of course it then pretends to change it to snow on the backside as the 2017 240hr tease will not be denied.

As far as punx phil, I like your idea.  Although maybe we turn a rabid 'pine martin' loose on it, (see above post).

BTW, WTF is a pine martin?   I've been alive for almost 50 years and that's the first I'd ever heard of one.   Is that just a fancy name for a weasel?

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