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2016-2017 Autumn/Winter Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


HillsdaleMIWeather

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41 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I find it tough to live in my geographic location for interacting on AmericanWX. I'm kind of a bit far west for this sub, but too far northeast for the OK/AR/KS/MO sub. And there are too few of us talkin' .

Yeah I've always been a bit disappointed by the lack of members from the MS valley westward.  We have a handful of great contributors, but wish we had more.  The QCA is a fairly large metropolitan area, and I've always been surprised that I'm the only one who posts from this area lol.  

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Living vicariously... June Lake CA...

Tonight
Snow showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 12. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. High near 17. Very windy, with a southwest wind 35 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 9. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow showers. High near 17. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 19. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow. Low around 10. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.
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On 1/15/2017 at 9:12 PM, IWXwx said:

I'm in kind of an island, memberwise. In the 14 years I've been posting, I've been the only one in the FWA area, except for Matt, a Fort Wayne TV met, who has contributed here recently.

And I should contribute more. Just a very blah pattern lately! 

BTW, very impressed models held on to the 60º temps that were advertised more than a week ago. And here we are, with highs approaching record status for FWA this weekend. 

Winter will return!

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Going to be an incredible severe weather event in Florida today. High risk tornadoes, first time in years?

I don't know exactly how rare it is to get a high risk down there, but it's pretty rare. Patrick Marsh's map of high risks from 1990-2008 has very low numbers down there.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I don't know exactly how rare it is to get a high risk down there, but it's pretty rare. Patrick Marsh's map of high risks from 1990-2008 has very low numbers down there.

I believe this is the first high risk for northern Florida outside of the far western panhandle. Needless to say a very rare event.

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FWIW, here's the map I'm referring to

Please note that each day consists of multiple outlooks and so it is possible for a grid point to receive multiple “hits” for being located in a Moderate or High risk outlook on the same day. In other words, if your location is located within 2 high risk outlooks, this does not guarantee that you will have two days of high risks. The location might simply be contained within a high risk from two separate outlooks issued for the same day.

highriskclimo.png

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img-resized.png Reduced: 77% of original size [ 525 x 459 ] - Click to view full image

ww0021_radar.gif
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
High (90%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (90%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
High (90%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

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Not a ton of F2+ activity in that high risk area when considering that this map covers 66 years.  They are not complete strangers to tornadoes but it always has the potential to be a bit more dangerous when you put a higher end setup in an area that is not accustomed.  Hopefully people are watching.

map.png

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IND AFD for this weeks events...

Short Term:

Quote

That said, the bulk of the moisture will be north of central Indiana. So, stayed with chance pops north mainly north through Wednesday with chance pops northeast and slight chance southwest Wednesday night. Needless to say, not expecting anything more than a dusting of snow accumulation, if that.


Long Term:

Quote

Moisture will be limited though and precipitation will mainly be confined to the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. As temperatures dip into the 20s on Thursday night and remain at the freezing mark on Friday across those northeastern counties, precipitation will be in the form of snow. No accumulations are expected.

 

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