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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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As you guys know I live very close to Newfound Lake.  It also is very low but they also draw it down in the fall so I am not sure if that is also the reason.  Newfound is one of the clearest big lakes in the country.  They do weekly water clarity tests.  Yesterday the lake was the clearest it has ever been.  They drop a disk in the water and record how far down they can read the numbers on it.  34.4 feet yesterday.  I am guessing that the lake is so clear because there is very little water inflow from the streams and 2 rivers that feed it???

Weatherwise maybe we are finally rounding a corner with more frequent rain chances on the horizon.

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lake levels are extremely low up here with some folks claiming there docks are sitting on bare ground plus most have pulled there boats early this year for fear of no being able to get them out

Lake Champlain is at its lowest level since 2001, and before that, 1964.  Many Fish and Wildlife put-ins are inaccessible, as the docks and ramps lead only to mudflats.

 

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Lake Champlain is at its lowest level since 2001, and before that, 1964.  Many Fish and Wildlife put-ins are inaccessible, as the docks and ramps lead only to mudflats.

 



If we would have another winter like last year, There may be big problems this spring unless we get a lot of spring precip
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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 


If we would have another winter like last year, There may be big problems this spring unless we get a lot of spring precip

yeah, let's not go there.  I don't have the annual BTV snowfall data at my fingertips, but I recall there was a period in either the late 20s or early 30s where BTV had 2 of 3 years with snowfalls of less than 40 inches.  There's precedence, but hopefully something that's not repeated.

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2 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

yeah, let's not go there.  I don't have the annual BTV snowfall data at my fingertips, but I recall there was a period in either the late 20s or early 30s where BTV had 2 of 3 years with snowfalls of less than 40 inches.  There's precedence, but hopefully something that's not repeated.

I certainly hope we don't, But there is nothing certain to say that it would not happen possibly, Early indicators are for snow and cold, But probably need another month to gain some traction on that thought process to happen

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9 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

yeah, let's not go there.  I don't have the annual BTV snowfall data at my fingertips, but I recall there was a period in either the late 20s or early 30s where BTV had 2 of 3 years with snowfalls of less than 40 inches.  There's precedence, but hopefully something that's not repeated.

The 1920's was the only decade that had 2 sub 40" seasons, well besides this current decade.

1926-27 had 38.7"

1928-29 had 38.3"

 

The 2010's has already had 2 sub 40" seasons (ranked #2 and #3 least snowiest ever):

2011-12-37.3"

2015-16-34.3"

So, going by historical trends, you would think BTV should be at their quota this decade for sub 40" winters, but never say never in the new climate regime where James gets as much snow as Stratton ;)

 

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4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

The 1920's was the only decade that had 2 sub 40" seasons, well besides this current decade.

1926-27 had 38.7"

1928-29 had 38.3"

 

The 2010's has already had 2 sub 40" seasons (ranked #2 and #3 least snowiest ever):

2011-12-37.3"

2015-16-34.3"

So, going by historical trends, you would think BTV should be at their quota this decade for sub 40" winters, but never say never in the new climate regime where James gets as much snow as Stratton ;)

 

It amazes me that BTV recorded 34.3" of snow last year. I honestly can't remember more than 8" of that snow. They must have counted every single flake. 

The snow stake on Mansfield doesn't have a lot of back-to-back duds. Though there are a few. Max snow depths in 64/65 were bad with max depths of 48" and 57".  1979 and 1980 were not winning any awards either with 55" and 72".  

So while I'm generally one to believe in regression towards the norm, There is plenty of precedent for this winter to be "sub-par" in terms of snow depth. 

 

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Farmington's two least snowy of the 123 winters on record came in consecutive seasons, 79-80 and 80-81, with 44" and 43", respectively - the only ones with less than 50% of their LT average of 89".

Sandy River flow now down to 35 cfs, 11 below the previous record for the date.  People familiar with Wilson Pond in Wilton, two towns to my west, say they've never seen it lower.  Rocks are emerging that have never before been seen above water, according to those folks.

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2 hours ago, adk said:

It amazes me that BTV recorded 34.3" of snow last year. I honestly can't remember more than 8" of that snow. They must have counted every single flake. 

The snow stake on Mansfield doesn't have a lot of back-to-back duds. Though there are a few. Max snow depths in 64/65 were bad with max depths of 48" and 57".  1979 and 1980 were not winning any awards either with 55" and 72".  

So while I'm generally one to believe in regression towards the norm, There is plenty of precedent for this winter to be "sub-par" in terms of snow depth. 

 

After last winter I'd take a 72" depth on the upper mountain and run with it haha.

I'm optimistic this winter purely because even 250" of snow would be 100" more than last year.  Even a below normal winter likely can't repeat last years abortion.

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4 hours ago, dryslot said:

I certainly hope we don't, But there is nothing certain to say that it would not happen possibly, Early indicators are for snow and cold, But probably need another month to gain some traction on that thought process to happen

I think there might be a puddle outside.  I better go investigate.  If confirmed, it's a baby step in the right direction.

Edit: Negative on the puddle.

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Being mid-October now, we’re well into the period when the mountains typically start getting shots of snow, and it looks like Mt Washington has got a chance with this latest cold front as noted in the Mt. Washington Observatory forecast as temperatures drop well down into the 20s F:

 

“High pressure will slide offshore Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. The departing high will continue a return flow that will keep temperatures above normal for the morning hours ahead of the incoming cold front. The high will also start the day off with a bit of sunshine but as the front approaches, clouds will thicken and lower, eventually returning summit fog by Thursday afternoon. Precipitation with the front will spread during the day with the bulk of the precipitation expected during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain initially but as temperatures drop with the frontal passage, a wintry mix will be possible for the late afternoon and evening hours.”

 

The upper elevations of Mt. Mansfield should drop below freezing as well, but of course as is the case with these cold fronts at this time of year, it’s just a question of whether or not there’s any moisture still around when the sub-freezing temperatures arrive.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

After last winter I'd take a 72" depth on the upper mountain and run with it haha.

I'm optimistic this winter purely because even 250" of snow would be 100" more than last year.  Even a below normal winter likely can't repeat last years abortion.

Yea, 2012 levels of snow depth would feel majestic after last year. 

 

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40 minutes ago, alex said:

Weather station is up. Like the console, jury is out on temp accuracy. Can't connect to WUnderground - trying to figure that piece out. 0.07" of rain so far

Good luck Alex.  What did you decide to do about the Webcams?

Rain just ended.    .06".   Got .10"  last weekend.   Maybe, finally some drought relief in about 10 days?  GFS/Euro both have juicy systems in the vicinity.

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0.13" total here. It's been dry, that's for sure. 

Decided to go for the standard angle... but forgot to buy one! I'll have it up next weekend. I'm also building a VERY visible snowstake - I'll place it in that middle "island," it should be quite visible from the webcam (especially a std angle). I'll also aim to have that up in the next couple of weeks. 

Ambient Weather seems to have good customer service so far; they couldn't figure out why it won't connect to WU directly so they are sending me an extra module that should resolve the issue. The question remains of how well it does in good radiational cooling conditions... tomorrow should be a good test (forecasted low is 23F)

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