NNE Fall Thread

[adk]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

A little comparison...

Christmas Day 2015:

 

Today:

 

Still plenty of time to go back to sad brown for christmas! Never doubt Vermont. 

Light snow falling in BTV. Way less robust than Monday's snowfall rates. Looks like about .75" on cars. 

 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, adk said:

Still plenty of time to go back to sad brown for christmas! Never doubt Vermont. 

Light snow falling in BTV. Way less robust than Monday's snowfall rates. Looks like about .75" on cars. 

 

1.25" base of Mansfield, grooming with a solid 2" on top of the corduroy on the hill.  There's some density to it...almost wet in a way.

Two shifts of groomers now means Mansfield gets done first shift...going to be some smooth skiing with 1-2" on all the FourRunner Quad groomers.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.06” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.2 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, dendrite said:

idk...near 60F on Christmas was kinda nice.

60° above frozen ground (not that last Dec froze much) equals mess.  As Tex Antoine would say when snow was followed by sunny and mild, "Nice day, from the ankles up."

Nice little burst of snow here in AUG, high end moderate, but now tapering off a bit.  Just a sub-inch refresher.

[eyewall]

One more from yesterday:

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, adk said:

Still plenty of time to go back to sad brown for christmas! Never doubt Vermont. 

Light snow falling in BTV. Way less robust than Monday's snowfall rates. Looks like about .75" on cars. 

 

Aint happening James 

[powderfreak]

Picnic tables were already dug out once in the last week but looks like it's getting closer to saying goodbye to them for a while.

 

[powderfreak]

Mansfield Stake is at 28" as of yesterday afternoon...which is the highest it's been this early in the season since the 2007.

Dec 2010 is close too.

Wonder if there's anything to the fact that the recent high years of Dec 2007, Dec 2016, and Dec 2010 all being La Niña seasons...

 

[ORH_wxman]

Nice...get those ugly things out of here in the next 10 days...time to go epic this December for the ski areas. Epic up there is usually good down here too (as I posted about a month ago in comparing the best Decembers for Pinkham Notch and Mansfield to ORH snow data).

 

December is 100 times better when there is snow OTG and snow threats. Much more holiday spirit. I always penalize winters a little bit if the Holiday season is a complete dud.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mansfield Stake is at 28" as of yesterday afternoon...which is the highest it's been this early in the season since the 2007.

Dec 2010 is close too.

Wonder if there's anything to the fact that the recent high years of Dec 2007, Dec 2016, and Dec 2010 all being La Niña seasons...

 

It is definitely not all a coincidence...La Ninas do tend to favor a colder December. You can see how there is a meaningful inverse correlation to ENSO in temps for the northern tier in December...esp N plains/Lakes...that's a good spot to have cold lurking.

 

[wxeyeNH]

1145am   29.9F  Very light snow and snow grains.  Vis 2 miles.  1.25" last night.  7.25" season.

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is definitely not all a coincidence...La Ninas do tend to favor a colder December. You can see how there is a meaningful inverse correlation to ENSO in temps for the northern tier in December...esp N plains/Lakes...that's a good spot to have cold lurking.

 

Yeah I figure it's a small sample set (very small) but there has to be some reason why our best starts (and overall snowiest winters) in the last decade were all of the La Niña ENSO category.  

And Im with you on December snows....darkest time of the year just makes it seem like it should snow even if climo is skewed a little later in the season like Jan/Feb... there's some very festive about having the ground and trees all white between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

 

 

[J.Spin]

I put together the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for our most recent event using reported 24-hour totals.  It was a little hard to resolve the 24-hour totals with some of the comments in the written sections, and totals are definitely quite variable up and down the spine, but it seems like generally a 1-3” deal with a couple of potential standouts.

 

Jay Peak: 1”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 1”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 4”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 5”

Bromley: 3”

Magic Mountain: 1”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 1”

[eyewall]

An interesting note from the afternoon BTV discussion:

Have noted high resolution data shows intense omega couplet...along
with favorable moisture in snow growth area at BTV around 18z
Thursday...along with a quick 0.05 to 0.10 of qpf...which could
produce a burst of 1 to 2 inches of snow right before evening
commute. This band is progged to shift south and dissipate across
central/southern vt by 21z Thursday.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I figure it's a small sample set (very small) but there has to be some reason why our best starts (and overall snowiest winters) in the last decade were all of the La Niña ENSO category.  

And Im with you on December snows....darkest time of the year just makes it seem like it should snow even if climo is skewed a little later in the season like Jan/Feb... there's some very festive about having the ground and trees all white between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Man, I’ll tell you what.  I’m certainly sold on La Niñas for our area with respect to both December and overall season snowfall based on my data set over the past decade.  Even throwing in 2008-2009 (which I believe was also a La Niña) along with 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, the seasonal snowfall still averages almost 200”.  And, December from those seasons averages 55-60” of snow.  This December has certainly felt more like those than the past few, so there could be something to it.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Man, I’ll tell you what.  I’m certainly sold on La Niñas for our area with respect to both December and overall season snowfall based on my data set over the past decade.  Even throwing in 2008-2009 (which I believe was also a La Niña) along with 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, the seasonal snowfall still averages almost 200”.  And, December from those seasons averages 55-60” of snow.  This December has certainly felt more like those than the past few, so there could be something to it.

Yeah it might be recent confirmation bias, but I'm with you.  La Ninas have been getting it done more than any other ENSO (neutral or positive). 

[powderfreak]

56 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I put together the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for our most recent event using reported 24-hour totals.  It was a little hard to resolve the 24-hour totals with some of the comments in the written sections, and totals are definitely quite variable up and down the spine, but it seems like generally a 1-3” deal with a couple of potential standouts.

 

Jay Peak: 1”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 1”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 4”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 5”

Bromley: 3”

Magic Mountain: 1”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 1”

The Bush with 4" at 4,000ft and 2" at 3,000ft... I'm becoming more and more fascinated with their elevational differences during these synoptic events like the one on Monday that also had 50% snowfall reduction up high on the mountain.  I have to try and ski there sometime this season when its snowing.  Be curious to see if 3,000ft actually gets 50% of the 4,000ft snowfall as is regularly reported.

 

[powderfreak]

Looks like more snow coming as BTV AFD mentions Sugarbush to Stowe to Jay peak as possible 2-6" Thursday night and Friday.

The point 'n click forecast is more snowy than that with 5-11" Thursday and Friday.

Thursday

Snow showers, mainly after 11am. High near 28. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow showers, mainly after 10pm. Low around 17. West wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -2. Blustery, with a northwest wind 18 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The Bush with 4" at 4,000ft and 2" at 3,000ft... I'm becoming more and more fascinated with their elevational differences during these synoptic events like the one on Monday that also had 50% snowfall reduction up high on the mountain.  I have to try and ski there sometime this season when its snowing.  Be curious to see if 3,000ft actually gets 50% of the 4,000ft snowfall as is regularly reported.

 

I know your love for Mansfield reigns supreme but do you get the chance to ski elsewhere or are you pretty tied down and just want to get away on your days off?  If you do go to other areas, is it like it is with golf pros and you get your lift ticket comped?  

[adk]

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it might be recent confirmation bias, but I'm with you.  La Ninas have been getting it done more than any other ENSO (neutral or positive). 

I've run the data and for Mt. Mansfield does do slightly better in moderate La Ninas. Otherwise ENSO state doesn't seem to correlate well to season snowfall at the snow stake. 

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, mreaves said:

I know your love for Mansfield reigns supreme but do you get the chance to ski elsewhere or are you pretty tied down and just want to get away on your days off?  If you do go to other areas, is it like it is with golf pros and you get your lift ticket comped?  

I haven't had a chance to ski elsewhere during the operating season but do enjoy going to Sugarbush for a late season day or two as they are usually open two weekends after us into early May.  But yeah, generally if you give a call down to another ski resort or reach out to them (a lot have reciprocal programs) you can usually at least get a heavy discount...like the industry rate. 

 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, adk said:

I've run the data and for Mt. Mansfield does do slightly better in moderate La Ninas. Otherwise ENSO state doesn't seem to correlate well to season snowfall at the snow stake. 

I'm still not sure what happens over the next 24-36 hours...do we get a dusting to an inch or is it like 6"?

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure what happens over the next 24-36 hours...do we get a dusting to an inch or is it like 6"?

Mesos like 6 plus  you should be pouring snow with the Arctic front after midnight too

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mesos like 6 plus  you should be pouring snow with the Arctic front after midnight too

The Lake Band is just north of us right now...we are on the edge getting flurries at the mountain with the sun shining to the southeast and very dark clouds to the northwest.

Someone in the heart of that thing where it crosses the Greens will get lit up...probably 1"/hr in it and it may sit for a little bit. 

[qg_omega]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Lake Band is just north of us right now...we are on the edge getting flurries at the mountain with the sun shining to the southeast and very dark clouds to the northwest.

Someone in the heart of that thing where it crosses the Greens will get lit up...probably 1"/hr in it and it may sit for a little bit. 

decent snow at whiteface atm, 2-3 inches so far

[ono]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The Lake Band is just north of us right now...we are on the edge getting flurries at the mountain with the sun shining to the southeast and very dark clouds to the northwest.

Someone in the heart of that thing where it crosses the Greens will get lit up...probably 1"/hr in it and it may sit for a little bit. 

yeah... it seems like somewhere between Stowe and Jay could be getting lit up around the Belividiere/Eden area.  Though it does look like pulses are making it into Smuggs area.

Smuggs installed a new HD cam for Madonna/sterling... pretty nice resolution/perspective

 

[qg_omega]

nuking ATM at whiteface, huge flake size...4-5 inches so far

[powderfreak]

Only a half inch of dust here so far.  Really really fluffy stuff so it won't take much to pick up some accums.

Just another day suffering through living in a snow globe.

This is on the bottom of Chin Clip at 2,000ft... just caked.  I'm still blown away by how much snow is out there.  Chin Clip is more well covered by natural than it was at any one point last season.  Like a very solid 18-20" of packed down base.

 

[powderfreak]

This is escalating nicely...can rip out 1"/hr fluff with this.

North of here in the heart of that band has to be 2-3/hr based on what I'm seeing here with flake size.

[ono]

upstream radar looks good for the Northern and Central Greens- that Ontario band looks to be starting a slight shift south with a good, broad pulse of moisture coming across upstate NY.  Light snow here in Burlington.