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NNE Fall Thread

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, adk said:

Does it really have to rain this week?

UGH. 

 

Well, it’s still November… it doesn’t have to rain… but I’d still say we’re in territory where it should be expected somewhat.  Things can certainly start to lock in around here in the mountains in late November, but that’s probably 50/50.

 

I’d mind more if our powder had still been pristine like it was up to Tuesday, but we’d already had that crust on Wednesday that knocked conditions down a peg.  Hopefully we’re not talking about a full reset, but we could use some base-building.  It should be interesting to see how things go with these next couple of warmish storms – it’s not as if they’re exceptionally warm or long-lived, so I want to see how much of this liquid can be put into the base.  That’s going to depend on elevations and snowpack, but there’s a foot of snow at the stake, which is just about average for this time of year.

 

I don’t think our valley snowpack is going to make it through this week though – if we’d held onto the snowpack that started on the 21st that would have been on the early side for a start, but behind or on par with a few other early starters.  We’re still ahead of average snowpack start date for our site though, which is in the first week of December.

 

It sounds like we’re back into the snow on Friday anyway with more seasonable temperatures:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1023 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues to be the theme for extended forecast with the aforementioned deep low dominating the North Country`s weather through the weekend as it slowly tracks eastward through southern Quebec Thursday/Friday, and offshore Saturday. Surface cold front shifts east of the area Thursday morning but the mid-level flow remains out of the southwest supporting some lake enhanced rain/snow showers, before turning to the west/northwest for Friday and the weekend where a return of more seasonal temperatures and periods of off and on orographic rain/snow showers are expected each day.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

Well, it’s still November… it doesn’t have to rain… but I’d still say we’re in territory where it should be expected somewhat.  Things can certainly start to lock in around here in the mountains in late November, but that’s probably 50/50.

 

I’d mind more if our powder had still been pristine like it was up to Tuesday, but we’d already had that crust on Wednesday that knocked conditions down a peg.  Hopefully we’re not talking about a full reset, but we could use some base-building.  It should be interesting to see how things go with these next couple of warmish storms – it’s not as if they’re exceptionally warm or long-lived, so I want to see how much of this liquid can be put into the base.  That’s going to depend on elevations and snowpack, but there’s a foot of snow at the stake, which is just about average for this time of year.

 

I don’t think our valley snowpack is going to make it through this week though – if we’d held onto the snowpack that started on the 21st that would have been on the early side for a start, but behind or on par with a few other early starters.  We’re still ahead of average snowpack start date for our site though, which is in the first week of December.

 

It sounds like we’re back into the snow on Friday anyway with more seasonable temperatures:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1023 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues to be the theme for extended forecast with the aforementioned deep low dominating the North Country`s weather through the weekend as it slowly tracks eastward through southern Quebec Thursday/Friday, and offshore Saturday. Surface cold front shifts east of the area Thursday morning but the mid-level flow remains out of the southwest supporting some lake enhanced rain/snow showers, before turning to the west/northwest for Friday and the weekend where a return of more seasonal temperatures and periods of off and on orographic rain/snow showers are expected each day.

Of course I expect it and know full well the climatological chances for rain in the northern greens on any given day (they are high). I'm just sorely disappointed that the nice natural snow base we were building is going to take a hit this week....that's a pattern that really puts a dent in terrain expansion and skiability for December. Which Northern VT needs after last years terrible winter. If we had some good winter wx after all the good will of the Killington world cup racing, that would be really good for holiday bookings and skiing. 

 

That's all. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, adk said:

Of course I expect it and know full well the climatological chances for rain in the northern greens on any given day (they are high). I'm just sorely disappointed that the nice natural snow base we were building is going to take a hit this week....that's a pattern that really puts a dent in terrain expansion and skiability for December. Which Northern VT needs after last years terrible winter. If we had some good winter wx after all the good will of the Killington world cup racing, that would be really good for holiday bookings and skiing. 

 

That's all. 

We still may be riding the Gondola next weekend, but yeah its the second wave that'll determine the damage.  No damage today with freezing rain and then 33F rain.  

As is usually the case in these, we'll go like 48 hours with no real melting and just when you think we may come out of it with no loss, the final night before CAA will lose the most.  

 

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We still may be riding the Gondola next weekend, but yeah its the second wave that'll determine the damage.  No damage today with freezing rain and then 33F rain.  

As is usually the case in these, we'll go like 48 hours with no real melting and just when you think we may come out of it with no loss, the final night before CAA will lose the most.  

 

That's always the worst. It stays way colder for the first few punches then spikes to 50F with four hours of pounding rain and snow eating fog on a south wind.... 

Miserable day in BTV. Just been dark and gray and wet. 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, adk said:

That's always the worst. It stays way colder for the first few punches then spikes to 50F with four hours of pounding rain and snow eating fog on a south wind.... 

Miserable day in BTV. Just been dark and gray and wet. 

 

This might have been the darkest day in a long time... I mean, it never seemed to get "light" out.  It was like an entire day of dusk.  10am/12pm/4pm all the same thing.

Only patchy snow left, mostly on elevated objects in town like bushes and roof-tops or where drifts formed.  Ground is snow-free for the most part, odd because most of the time in these situations it'll be the ground that has snow and not elevated stuff.  Unfrozen ground before the snow though definitely caused a weird melt pattern.  Like in my yard there's no snow on the ground but still cover on top of the bushes and roof.  It'll all be gone soon, but going back to the darkness thing.... the snow cover over the past 7-9 days definitely helped out a lot during the dark cloudy days of November. 

Now back to your regularly scheduled brown, dark, dreary, gray days of late Nov and early Dec in New England.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, adk said:

Of course I expect it and know full well the climatological chances for rain in the northern greens on any given day (they are high). I'm just sorely disappointed that the nice natural snow base we were building is going to take a hit this week....that's a pattern that really puts a dent in terrain expansion and skiability for December. Which Northern VT needs after last years terrible winter. If we had some good winter wx after all the good will of the Killington world cup racing, that would be really good for holiday bookings and skiing. 

 

That's all. 

 

Yeah, no doubt that you know the drill, better than anyone actually, LOL.  Your post was just a good launch pad for some recent/near future conditions commentary.  Agreed though on the hit to early season, I’m a big fan of getting that November and December snowpack down, because like I always say… “those are the turns you’ll never get back”.  At the same time though, I feel like we just got four plus back-to-back days of powder with pretty decent timing (almost perfect from my perspective) during the Thanksgiving holiday week, and that’s not something that happens every season in that early holiday window.  The ensembles suggest there are some chances coming though.  Having one of these juicier systems pass by with the right track to lay down some dense base in the elevations would be great.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This might have been the darkest day in a long time... I mean, it never seemed to get "light" out.  It was like an entire day of dusk.  10am/12pm/4pm all the same thing.

 

I'm glad I wasn't the only person who noticed that. 

I can now confirm that if I lived in Alaska, by the end of my first winter, I would be storing body parts in my freezer.  

Lots of "events" in the long range GFS...so that's positive. They don't look cold but it is too far away to tell anyway. 

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted

I just read our AFD which has me very confused. It says: 

Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into Quebec tonight
as a secondary low develops over the mid Atlantic region. This
secondary low will track along the New england coast late tonight
and Thursday drawing colder air into the mountains and adjacent
foothills, changing a snow and rain mix there over to wet snow.

I don't see any signs of snow in Euro nor GFS, and P&C gives rain till some upslope kicks in on Thursday night. What are your thoughts on this? We have LOTS going on with the building project these next couple of days - doesn't sound like a big deal either way, but I'm very curious as to what to expect. 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

These temperatures the past couple of days have been nice, but it looks like we’re back into some cooler weather and potential snow starting tomorrow night:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

352 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 352 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under the influence of a closed upper low over Quebec through the period, with chances for rain and snow showers through the period. The higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains will see some accumulating light snow through the period.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 336 PM EST Wednesday...The region will remain under cyclonic flow Saturday and Saturday night from a departing surface low pressure area over the Canadian Maritimes, so will have in chance pops for rain or snow showers Saturday and Saturday night.

 

In general, the models show a bit of moisture hanging around the Greens this weekend with that cyclonic flow, and the high-elevation point forecasts are suggesting some accumulations:

 

Tonight: Rain before 9pm, then rain and snow. Low around 36. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 50 to 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Rain and snow likely before 4pm, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 30 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 26 to 36 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy, with a northwest wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

I guess we’ll see how it looks as we get closer.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Good lord, is the wind ripping right now. Gusty SE downslope winds coming down the west slopes. Lost power about 30 mins ago---so probably some big branches and or trees down somewhere nearby.

Jealous sometimes of those west slope winds...you guys (entire immediate west slope from Canada to Mass) get the highest winds in the state on an average synoptic basis from these SE or E flow synoptic events when the low level jet is ripping.  Might hurt you in QPF but when it's rain, less is better and the wind is certainly more exciting.  Losing power though is no fun.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, alex said:

I just read our AFD which has me very confused. It says: 


Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into Quebec tonight
as a secondary low develops over the mid Atlantic region. This
secondary low will track along the New england coast late tonight
and Thursday drawing colder air into the mountains and adjacent
foothills, changing a snow and rain mix there over to wet snow.

I don't see any signs of snow in Euro nor GFS, and P&C gives rain till some upslope kicks in on Thursday night. What are your thoughts on this? We have LOTS going on with the building project these next couple of days - doesn't sound like a big deal either way, but I'm very curious as to what to expect. 

Wrong mountains. We probably should be more specific, but it's mostly the western Maine mountains that will be mainly snow. Even Oxford County is kind of iffy.

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Wrong mountains. We probably should be more specific, but it's mostly the western Maine mountains that will be mainly snow. Even Oxford County is kind of iffy.

I think you guys sometimes tend to forget that NH is in your area too... ;)

Jokes aside, your office covers an enormous area with a huge variety of climates. Specificity would definitely be helpful!

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, alex said:

I think you guys sometimes tend to forget that NH is in your area too... ;)

Jokes aside, your office covers an enormous area with a huge variety of climates. Specificity would definitely be helpful!

We do a poor job of being specific sometimes. I mean the mountains are not all the same. Warm air loves to flood into NH while Sugarloaf rips a blue bomb. If it's going to snow in the Whites it's going to be right now, or like you say it will wait until upslope on the backside.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jealous sometimes of those west slope winds...you guys (entire immediate west slope from Canada to Mass) get the highest winds in the state on an average synoptic basis from these SE or E flow synoptic events when the low level jet is ripping.  Might hurt you in QPF but when it's rain, less is better and the wind is certainly more exciting.  Losing power though is no fun.

Yea, seems to be a few of these setups per year. The events that i have noticed in the 2  years livng here happen when LP is to the west somewhere with the LLJ ripping lke you said. So don't really care about QPF loss, because it will always be rain most likley.

I sent an email to ALY NWS about the wind and outages and they put out a special weather statement 5 -10 minutes later..lol. I guess sometimes they have to wait for ground reports.

 

 

 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Posted
57 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Glad I don't live there. Seriously. Might be beautiful country but I like where I'm at. Golf season is short enough as is down here.

I really take advantage of all the seasons, That's what 4 season living is here, You have to know when to fold them, And know when to hold them................;)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, seems to be a few of these setups per year. The events that i have noticed in the 2  years livng here happen when LP is to the west somewhere with the LLJ ripping lke you said. So don't really care about QPF loss, because it will always be rain most likley.

I sent an email to ALY NWS about the wind and outages and they put out a special weather statement 5 -10 minutes later..lol. I guess sometimes they have to wait for ground reports.

We have a pretty poor density of reliable observing stations, though the NY mesonet will help them some. But these downslope wind events are so localized. Look at Gatlinburg. 80 mph gusts there, but a very small area. Can't guarantee there will be a station there. 

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