NNE Fall Thread

[dryslot]

1.24" here overnight, I had no doubt's................lol

[dendrite]

0.64" final through the tipper here.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Years ago he lived in Sturbridge I think and used to vent pretty good. Different handle though...I think it began with a J. 

 

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Excellent memory. It was jzinckgra. I really thought we were gonna get screwed last night looking at radar, but it all worked out to my satisfaction.

Oh that's him? Ha...I remember that name. Hopefully him and MPM can tag team during a storm up there. 

[Lava Rock]

Oh that's him? Ha...I remember that name. Hopefully him and MPM can tag team during a storm up there. 

To clarify, I'm jzinckgra, but changed name to lava rock. I thought mpm lived in western MA.

[mreaves]

28 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

To clarify, I'm jzinckgra, but changed name to lava rock. I thought mpm lived in western MA.

He bought a place in ME.  Two moneypits now.

[dryslot]

37 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

To clarify, I'm jzinckgra, but changed name to lava rock. I thought mpm lived in western MA.

He has a place in Bath, We have you in the NNE thread and MPM in the SNE one, Best to stay that way then to get tag teamed by you both this winter up here..............

[wxeyeNH]

.83"  final.  The misery mist kept adding up till early afternoon.  Sun was dimly visible but it kept dripping off the roof.  Skies have partially cleared by late afternoon but still showers falling on the hills to the west. 

[J.Spin]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The timing differences between the GFS and EURO (as well as the amount of cold) between the snowmaking windows is driving me nuts haha.  GFS says we are online by Sunday afternoon...EURO says like Tuesday morning.

The BTV NWS is still discussing the modeling differences as well – they note the potential for several inches of snow in the higher elevations, which is good news overall, but obviously it’s that timing of the cold air getting down near base elevations that is important for you guys to finish off that snowmaking.  They were favoring the ECMWF –type solutions before due to the run-to-run consistency, but that’s no longer emphasized in the latest update:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Tough to resolve these model differences at this point. Overall idea is a trend toward more seasonable temps Sunday onward, and with periods of precipitation Sat night thru Monday. Certainly appears the potential is there for several inches of snowfall across the higher summits, and perhaps some accumulating snow even in the valleys by Sunday night into Monday. Question will be on overall track/evolution of the low pressure system in terms of potential timing and intensity of precipitation. Will continue to monitor this system for Sat night thru Monday. As low departs, do anticipate a trend toward quieter/drier weather mid- week period and onset of busy travel period for the Thanksgiving holiday.

[alex]

It seemed to be improving but now it's gone from myserymist to moderate rain 

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

He has a place in Bath, We have you in the NNE thread and MPM in the SNE one, Best to stay that way then to get tag teamed by you both this winter up here..............

We are only kidding around, although has the potential to be the debbie capitol of the region.   Hope they both get buried.

[dryslot]

We are only kidding around, although has the potential to be the debbie capitol of the region.   Hope they both get buried.

We all hope that is the case for the region, So far it does not look like it will happen early

[adk]

13 hours ago, J.Spin said:

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The timing differences between the GFS and EURO (as well as the amount of cold) between the snowmaking windows is driving me nuts haha.  GFS says we are online by Sunday afternoon...EURO says like Tuesday morning.

 

The BTV NWS is still discussing the modeling differences as well – they note the potential for several inches of snow in the higher elevations, which is good news overall, but obviously it’s that timing of the cold air getting down near base elevations that is important for you guys to finish off that snowmaking.  They were favoring the ECMWF –type solutions before due to the run-to-run consistency, but that’s no longer emphasized in the latest update:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Tough to resolve these model differences at this point. Overall idea is a trend toward more seasonable temps Sunday onward, and with periods of precipitation Sat night thru Monday. Certainly appears the potential is there for several inches of snowfall across the higher summits, and perhaps some accumulating snow even in the valleys by Sunday night into Monday. Question will be on overall track/evolution of the low pressure system in terms of potential timing and intensity of precipitation. Will continue to monitor this system for Sat night thru Monday. As low departs, do anticipate a trend toward quieter/drier weather mid- week period and onset of busy travel period for the Thanksgiving holiday.

The EURO was way off for the two October events. GFS was much more accurate. I'm leaning towards the GFS for this one. Expecting 4-8" type event above 2000ft. Still think mtns are going to struggle with 1k-2k temps for at least a while 

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, adk said:

The EURO was way off for the two October events. GFS was much more accurate. I'm leaning towards the GFS for this one. Expecting 4-8" type event above 2000ft. Still think mtns are going to struggle with 1k-2k temps for at least a while 

 

I just took a look at the last couple of GFS runs that I hadn’t seen, and it’s hard to complain – the weekend system seems to be holding pat for now, and even that potential Thanksgiving period storm is looking more intriguing.

 

I like your thoughts of a 4-8” event at elevation for the weekend system based on a quick look.

 

There’s actually an extensive discussion about the weekend period in the BTV AFD - they suggest the possibility of several inches on Sunday, with several more Sunday night into Monday:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 350 aM EST Thursday...Active pattern expected with a  period of accumulating mountains snow showers associated with  upslope flow likley late Saturday Night into Monday. Still  plenty of uncertainty with evolution of negatively tilted trof  and timing of surface boundary across our region on Saturday  Night into Sunday. Have utilized a model blend for fropa  timing...which supports front across the dacks between 00z-  03z...into the champlain valley 03z-06z...and thru most of vt by  12z Sunday. This boundary will be accompanied by a wind shift  to the west/northwest...along with sharply falling temps and a  period of precipitation. Leading edge of precip will be  rain...but as temperatures quickly fall to 0c by 06z Dacks and  12z Sunday Greens...precip will change to snow in the mountains.  Have noted precip fields associated with boundary are mostly  post frontal...so most of the precip will fall behind wind  shift. Another trend noted in the models...has been for 0c 925mb  line to lag behind the initial surge of cold air  advection...resulting in mainly rain for valley locations on  Sunday. As boundary layer becomes cool enough to support snow in  the valleys...best deep layer moisture axis is shifted to our  east...with mainly terrain driven upslope snow likely going into  Sunday Night. Thinking any accumulations on Sunday will be  confined above 1000 feet...with several inches possible. Lows  will be around 12z Sunday...with readings ranging from the  mid/upper 20s mountain summits to near 40f warmer valleys. Highs  Sunday...only climb a degree or two...before falling as  secondary surge of cooler air arrives after 18z Sunday. Mainly  20s mountains to mid 30s/lower 40s valleys.

 

Latest trends have been for a more progressive mid/upper level  trof lifting across our region...with initial surface low pres  tracking to our north...while closing off 5h/7h circulations  occur directly overhead. This results in best deep layer  moisture and associated moist conveyor belt being established to  our east and north of our cwa. Precip fields will become more  terrain focused on Sunday Night into Monday...as favorable  upslope parameters develop. However...the timing and location of  the closing 5h/7h circulations...along with deepening surface  low pres to our east...will limit backside moisture advection.  Will continue to mention likely pops Sunday Night and Monday  across the northern Dacks and central/northern Green Mountains.  Several additional inches of snow accumulation is likely in the  mountains during this period...with higher snow ratios likely  with the advection of cold air. Thinking a dusting to an inch or so is possible on the eastern side of the Champlain valley by  Monday morning.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, adk said:

The EURO was way off for the two October events. GFS was much more accurate. I'm leaning towards the GFS for this one. Expecting 4-8" type event above 2000ft. Still think mtns are going to struggle with 1k-2k temps for at least a while 

Should have a good window of snowmaking for 36 hours all elevations and 48 hours upper mountain.

With ECM and GFS fairly similar now, I do like the chance for a plowable (3"+) snow for the parking lots and maybe 6+" upper mountain.  The ratios should get pretty good as those temps crash with good H85 UVVs for a time in -12C temps.

[alex]

... and in the meantime, misery mist continues. .09" since midnight

[eyewall]

The 12z GFS is looking better for the picnic tables next week compared to the previous run. If it verifies, there would be little problem for Stowe making the 11/23 target date. 850 temps down to -9C or -10C between 96-120 hours.

[powderfreak]

57 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The 12z GFS is looking better for the picnic tables next week compared to the previous run. If it verifies, there would be little problem for Stowe making the 11/23 target date. 850 temps down to -9C or -10C between 96-120 hours.

It's like a foot of upslope on Mon/Tues.. Ratios increasing quickly with time too.  That's a great signal.

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's like a foot of upslope on Mon/Tues.. Ratios increasing quickly with time too.  That's a great signal.

It sure is. Let's hope it continues on this trend.  I will try to go early on if possible for a few turns there if the opening happens. At the very least I will be sure to take the short road trip as always to get into the snow :).

[J.Spin]

Well, after digesting the afternoon model runs, the BTV NWS is going with snow in the higher elevations of VT by daybreak Sunday, and snow levels dropping to the valley floors by afternoon/evening.  The Mansfield point forecast is definitely looking wintry starting on Saturday night:

 

 

The 18Z GFS run continues the trend of keeping that low around to our north for a bit to drive moisture drive moisture into the spine.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 304 PM EST Thursday...Active weather continues through the   period, with elevational dependent snowfall accumulations   expected Sunday through Monday, and potentially slick road   conditions areawide for the Monday morning commute. Snowfall   accumulations 4+" possible above 1000` thru Sunday night.

 

Vigorous, negative tilt 500mb shifts ewd from the ern Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region Saturday night, eventually   becoming a closed low across NY and northern New England during   the day Sunday into Sunday night, and then slowly moving across   nrn ME during Monday morning. Precipitation begins as rain   Saturday evening, but combination of low-level CAA and dynamic   cooling aloft as closed low forms/deepens, will gradually shift   thermal profiles toward snow as favored precipitation type.   Model soundings suggest snowfall at 2000` across the Adirondacks   as early as 03Z Sunday, with subfreezing temps eventually   filtering across the higher terrain of VT by daybreak Sunday.   Snow levels fall from near 1700` Sunday morning, to eventually   the valley floors by late Sunday aftn/evening. Best QG forcing   occurs Saturday night...then we switch into more of an   orographic, NW flow pattern Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.   So, biggest factors will be orographic nature of the snow, and   also the elevational dependence on snowfall accumulations with   marginal PBL temps during the day Sunday.

 

Thinking that through the day Sunday, snowfall accumulations will be confined to areas above 1000`. Amts around 4" expected   in the northern Adirondacks, and a slushy coating to 1" at the   1000` elevation level thru 00Z Monday. Thereafter, will probably   see temps fall below freezing areawide, with periodic snow   shower activity Sunday night and Monday. Snow showers will be   most persistent across the nrn Adirondacks and central/nrn Green Mtns, where several additional inches of snowfall appear   possible thru Monday. In the St. Lawrence/Champlain Valleys,   snow showers will be more intermittent. However, given that it`s   the first snowfall of the season, lack of antecedent road   chemicals will leave paved surfaces more prone to being slick   for the Monday morning commute...and it could be a very slow   commute as a result. We`ll continue to monitor.

 

Highs Sunday generally in the upr 30s in the valleys, but near freezing in the 1000-2000` elevational band. 850mb temps drop to   -9 to -11C by Monday afternoon, and will keep temps in the low-   mid 30s areawide. Lows Sunday night will generally be in the 20s.

[J.Spin]

I grabbed some of the text from the latest BTV AFD, highlighting some encouraging thoughts in bold:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 401 AM EST Friday...Upper low moves northeast Monday and Monday night...but this continues to keep the area in a favorable upslope snow pattern. Can see additional accumulations in the mountains and the Saint Lawrence Valley as more moisture works into the region. This combined with the snow on Sunday and Sunday night has the makings for a long duration snow event resulting in heavy snowfall for the mountains.

 

I’m sure that’s going to be music to skier’s ears around here.  I’ve added a few images below as well for archival purposes - a couple of AccuWeather graphics, and GFS potential snowfall output for this first event and through the Thanksgiving holiday week.  We’ll have to see how these storms track, but indeed there’s a lot of potential to get the ski season rolling over the next 10 days.

 

 

 

 

[adk]

Oh its def. on. 

 

 

[dryslot]

Waiting to see how the 11/25-26 system plays out

[J.Spin]

4 hours ago, adk said:

Oh its def. on. 

 

I saw the image below posted in the AlpineZone.com winter weather thread… the word appears to be getting around that something is up.

 

[CoastalWx]

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I saw the image below posted in the AlpineZone.com winter weather thread… the word appears to be getting around that something is up.

 

We should try to keep the discussion in Ginxy's thread or do we want to keep it all here?  

Winter Storm Watches are up.

[tamarack]

For Sunday night, GYX has snow showers in Rangeley (no surprise at 1,500'+), rain and snow showers in Farmington, rain showers 6 miles east in New Sharon.  Pretty tight location of the rain-snow line, though the computer might be dead on.  T'Day storm is mix-to-snow in Rangeley, all rain down in the Sandy River Valley.  Also outside of 100 hr, so who knows?

[J.Spin]

The BTV NWS has put out the first series of maps for the upcoming storm, and we’re under our first Winter Storm Watch of the season in our area.  Advisory, snowfall forecast maps, and text are below.  I guess I’m most surprised by how much the mountain valleys are anticipated to get into the snowfall, but the map below puts our area in the 4-6”, similar to Stowe Village.  In many respects, this is right on track as far as November is concerned.  Average snowfall for the month at our location is a bit shy of a foot, and much of it typically comes in the last third of the month.

 

 

 

VTZ003-006-008-016>019-191000-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0003.161120T1200Z-161122T0000Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWPORT, JOHNSON, STOWE, MONTPELIER,

ENOSBURG FALLS, RICHFORD, UNDERHILL, BRISTOL, RIPTON,

EAST WALLINGFORD, AND KILLINGTON

239 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

MONDAY EVENING.

 

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL VERMONT AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN

  MOUNTAINS

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN

  THE MOUNTAINS.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

 

* TIMING...THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO

  SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET

  LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO THE VALLEY

  FLOORS BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING SUNDAY

  NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER

  ELEVATION POINTS. A SLOW COMMUTE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE MONDAY

  MORNING.

 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY, AND

  GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND

  MONDAY.

 

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

 

BANACOS

[J.Spin]

36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We should try to keep the discussion in Ginxy's thread or do we want to keep it all here?  

Winter Storm Watches are up.

 

I’ve posted in both threads, but I generally try to keep the archival stuff here in the NNE thread because it’s much easier to find in the long run (we basically have four or so NNE threads a year, so one can just search for threads with “NNE” in the title, find the appropriate date, and you’re good to go.  I’m happy to cross-post too if we’d like that storm-specific thread to be comprehensive, it’s just that we usually don’t have a thread focused on our events, and if it’s a region-wide thread, the trickle of NNE posts is lost in the deluge.

[adk]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We should try to keep the discussion in Ginxy's thread or do we want to keep it all here?  

Winter Storm Watches are up.

I think we should keep the discussion (and in the Ski thread) as those are the places that seem to have the most people interested in wx above 2000ft.... 

 

[eyewall]

I will be quite happy with 3-4 inches to kick off the season